Take the populations of Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary, add them together, and you get just under four million people. That's how many people will move to Southern Ontario's Golden Horseshoe region during the next 30 years. Where they are going to live and how they will impact the quality of life in Canada's most populated region is the topic of a new discussion paper released by the Ontario government.

The paper, Places to Grow: Better Choices, Better Future, tackles the issues of urban planning, land use, economic development and infrastructure. In releasing the paper this week, Minister of Public Infrastructure Renewal David Caplan said, "Years of poor planning and leadership have left a legacy of uncontrolled urban sprawl, traffic congestion, environmental decline, and loss of greenspace and farmland in the Greater Golden Horseshoe."

The paper warns that if current development patterns continue, by 2031, commute times in the region will increase by up to 45 per cent, automobile related emissions will increase by 42 per cent, and new development will eat up more than 1,000 sq. km of farmland.

Key to the government's plan to cut down on urban sprawl is the development of "priority urban centres" -- areas with existing infrastructure that can accommodate intensification.

"Various studies suggest that there is sufficient land available within the currently designated urban envelope to accommodate the majority of growth over the next 15 to 20 years," says the report. "By using our land in a more efficient manner, we will limit pressures to expand our urban boundaries and will be better able to protect prime agricultural lands and greenlands."

To encourage support within urban boundaries, the plan will "address barriers that make it less financially viable for developers to invest in existing areas, such as lack of up-front financing for brownfield remediation and strict municipal zoning regulations in urban areas. It will also put in place incentives to encourage developers to take advantage of opportunities in already designated and serviced areas, while making sure the costs of servicing new greenfield developments are more fully borne by the beneficiaries -- not existing local or provincial taxpayers."

Builders and developers are sure to react to the plan's promise to review the controversial Development Charges Act, which allows municipalities to levy development fees on new homes. Builders say there are already too many taxes and fees that are driving up the cost of housing. The discussion paper says the province will review current "regulatory, fiscal and planning measures to ensure that they promote compact urban form and discourage growth that makes inefficient use of land."

Developers say they are simply responding to market forces -- people want large suburban lots, and developers say new-home buyers already pay more than their share of infrastructure costs.

But the discussion paper is also facing some criticism that it isn't tough enough to prevent urban sprawl. For example, the paper cites planning policies in Sydney, Australia that have put 60 per cent of new homes in existing urban areas, and a similar target in the U.K. that in 2003 saw 66 per cent of new homes built in previously developed areas. Ontario's discussion paper says it will only consider expanding urban boundaries if the municipality "has planned to accommodate a minimum of 40 per cent of the projected growth through intensification." Some critics say that's not enough to make a difference to the current sprawl problem.

The discussion paper suggests that more capital funding for affordable housing could be made available through federal and provincial government programs, and says the province will review "existing fiscal tools such as the land transfer tax rebate program to promote resale housing or housing in urban areas." Another idea is a mortgage pilot program that would provide incentives for people who live close enough to work that they don't need to commute by car.

Ontario's infrastructure ministry is currently working on two major reports -- one is a 10-year plan for infrastructure funding, and another focuses on planning issues for rural land in the province.

In the meantime, the government is asking for public feedback to the discussion paper. It has set a deadline of Sept. 24, 2004 for comments, and also is inviting residents to fill out an online survey.

"For the first time in our history, we have the basis of a plan to manage population growth and economic expansion in a rational, intelligent way, instead of trying to catch up to it after the fact," said Caplan. "This is our chance -- maybe our last chance -- to build the future we want."

Published: July 15, 2004

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Jim Adair is editor of REM: Canada's Real Estate Magazine, a business publication for real estate agents and brokers. He is also consulting editor of Homes & Cottages, Canada's largest building and renovation magazine. Email jimhc@pathcom.com.