You may notice that a lot of national housing news seems to center on California. Here's why.

According to the California Coalition For Rural Housing," one out of every nine Americans is a Californian; by 2006, one out of every eight people will live in California. It's the most populous state in the union, as well as the most urban. It also has one of the lowest affordability ratios in the country, as well as the lowest number of homeowners per the population. The housing market has seen double-digit increases for four years.

Other industries also watch California closely. For example, an emissions bill passed in California, as approximately 11 percent of the car-buying public in the U.S., is enough to influence car design, importation, and production for years to come. In case you don't believe it, ask yourself why you can only buy Volkswagen diesels in the U.S. when every manufacturer from Chrysler to Mercedes makes diesel cars and SUVs for the European market.

California has the population bulge that may spill over into other states.

A decade ago, while recovering from a number of earthquakes, fires, floods and a horrific housing recession, equity-rich Californians poured their money into much-cheaper Texas, bringing with them such local tastes as "nouvelle cuisine." The Texas McMansion was born.

And when housing became too unaffordable and jobs were more difficult to find after the dot-com crash of 2000, a non-coastal area began to boom with displaced Californians - Las Vegas. Last year, Las Vegas recorded the largest real estate boom in history with a whopping 52 percent increase in home values year over year in 2003.

So, what happens in California matters to the rest of the nation.

That's why when California housing experts such as the California Association of Realtors' and its chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young announce a housing trend, the nation takes notice.

According to the CAR's "2005 Housing Market Forecast, the median home price in California will increase 15 percent to $522,930 in 2005 compared with a projected median of $454,720 this year, while sales for 2005 are projected to reach 603,700 units, falling 2.5 percent compared with 2004. The double-digit gain in the median price of a home will again be fueled by the continuing shortage of housing across much of the state, according to C.A.R. economists like Appleton-Young.

"We expect the economy in 2005 to generate modest growth in jobs both nationally and here in California, while productivity gains and competition will likely keep inflation in check next year, " said Appleton-Young. "While the increase in interest rates will be enough to moderate the pace of home sales in 2005,population and household growth will continue to put pressure on home prices, resulting in greater price appreciation in California compared with the nation."

Home sales for California in 2004 are expected to reach a record 619,300 units, surpassing the prior sales record of 601,770 set in 2003, according to C.A.R. economists. 

"Regionally, the areas with the greatest potential for home sales growth are the inland regions of the state -- the Central Valley and the Inland Empire region in Southern California, which have experienced significant population gains in recent years as well as robust new home-building activity," said Appleton-Young. "The Southern California housing market in 2005 is likely to slow from the torrid pace of sales and rapid price appreciation that we experienced throughout most of this year. The San Francisco Bay Area housing market, which advanced at a more measured pace than other regions in the state this year, is likely to see less slowing in 2005 compared with other areas of the state."

Southern states - get ready for another boom!

Published: October 12, 2004

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Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment. Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's. Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. To contact Blanche, email her at . For more articles by Blanche, click here.