Much of the building boom expected for the next quarter of a century will be new homes and a new study reveals a growing share of those new homes will have to be constructed near transit stations.

Las Vegas, NV-based Reconnecting America, a new national organization formed to link transportation networks and the communities they serve, recently reported that more than 14.6 million American households are likely to want housing near transit by 2025, double the number that live in those neighborhoods today.

"Hidden in Plain Sight: Capturing the Demand for Housing Near Transit," further says meeting the doubled demand will require building some 8.3 million new units -- 2,100 residential for-rent and for-sale units near each of the 3,971 transit stations included in the study conducted for the Federal Transit Administration by the national non-profit Center for Transit-Oriented Development in Oakland, CA.

Demand for so-called "transit oriented development" or TOD will come from 10 metropolitan regions, five of which have extensive existing transit systems (New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, San Francisco), three regions with large and growing systems (Los Angeles, Washington D.C. and Portland), and two metro regions with medium-sized but expanding systems (Dallas and Miami).

Demand estimates in the study considered overall population growth, growth in the number of household types likely to show a greater propensity for living near transit ("empty nesters" and other households without children for example), the size of the transit system and number of stations, among other factors.

The regions expecting the most TOD demand align closely with areas the Brookings Institution's "Toward A New Metropolis: The Opportunity to Rebuild America" says are due to experience a building boom in the next 25 years. Many of them are also deemed over-priced housing markets where builders are rushing to meet the demand for more affordable housing and more housing in general.

TOD fills the bill for numerous reasons, according to the landmark "Statewide Transit-Oriented Development Study: Factors for Success in California," a comprehensive 14-month study of the TOD developments. Below are some of the results:

• TODs are viable in both urban and suburban settings, provided development is not simply adjacent to transit, but shaped by transit in terms of parking, density, and building orientation.

• A well-conceived and developed TOD is designed to focus compact growth around transit stops to bring riders closer to transit facilities, to encourage walkable infill development, and save land. They can be built to contain many elements of the so-called "new urbanism" or "neo-traditionalist" developments named for a more traditional pedestrian-friendly, easy-access-to-essentials approach to development that has less impact on the infrastructure than sprawl.

• TODs provide mobility options, very much needed in the most congested metropolitan areas. This allows young people, the elderly, low-income people and people who prefer not to drive or own cars the ability to get around.

• Reduced drive time. TODs can lower annual household drive times by 20 percent to 40 percent for those living, working and/or shopping near transit stations. Reduced driving time means reduced driving expense to the tune of thousands of dollars a year. That can land a TOD homeowner what's called a "Location Efficient Mortgage" or LEM. Just as "Energy Efficient Mortgages (EEMs)" allow a homeowner with a more energy efficient home to spend more money on housing instead of energy, LEMs allow homeowners to spend a greater percentage of their income on housing when they spend less on transportation.

• Reduced drive time also means reduced air pollution and energy consumption. TODs can reduce rates of greenhouse gas emissions by 2.5 to 3.7 tons per year for each household.

• Reduced driving time can increase transit use, which can trigger improvements in the efficiency and effectiveness of transit service as well as supporting investments. Shelley Poticha, executive director of Oakland's Center for TOD said, "Because there are currently about 6 million households living within a half mile of transit stations, there is the potential to more than double the amount of housing near transit. This means transit could become the armature for a significant amount of regional growth and help increase transit ridership."

• Also, by creating active communities that are busy through the day and evening, TODs put more "eyes on the street" and that increases safety for pedestrians, transit users, and others.

Published: January 5, 2005

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.

A journalist for 35-years, Broderick Perkins parlayed an old-school daily newspaper career into a digital news service offering editorial content and consulting services. Perkins' San Jose, CA-based DeadlineNews Group includes the flagship news site, DeadlineNews.Com, offering real estate, personal finance and consumer journalism, and a backshop, the Deadline Newsroom.