Three quarters of a million dollars; $0.75 million; $750,000.

Anyway you write it, April's median price of single-family detached homes in Silicon Valley comes out the same.

"It's crazy," says Mark Burns, a Coldwell Banker agent in Cupertino.

The good news is that most experts say the market has just about peaked -- for now -- at the region's new record price level for single-family detached homes, $750,000 -- up a whopping $86,000 this year alone and $132,000 in the past year.

The median price for condos came in at $465,000 in April, up only $55,000 since the beginning of the year, and $80,000 from a year ago, according to the Bay Area Real Estate Market Newsletter by Richard Calhoun, broker owner of Creekside Realty in San Jose.

"The appreciation cannot continue at this rate. It is not a sustainable model," said Dennis Badagliacco, broker of RE/MAX Valley Properties in San Jose's Willow Glen neighborhood.

Indeed, sales are down. Last April, 1,672 single-family home sales closed, compared to 1,422 this April. For condos the numbers were 589 closes this April and 670 in April 2004, Calhoun reported.

Calhoun analyzes data from the area's five-county multiple listing service, RE InfoLink, and says the new high-price record is the same old story -- too little supply, too much demand.

"There are only 32 days of unsold inventory driving the market. It's basically a demand-supply imbalance. I have a client (looking for a home) in the $5 million range and is having trouble finding a two-story, 3,500 square foot home with a master and two other bedrooms on the second floor, where it is quiet. It just isn't out there. He has $5 million cash to spend and is willing to go to $6.5 million and cannot find a house," said Calhoun.

How bad is the supply?

Steve Suchow, an associate broker with Coldwell Banker in San Jose says a normal inventory can be as high as 4,000 single-family detached homes for sale, but recent months have found the inventory as low as 1,000 or less.

"In December, we had a total of 950 homes on the market, fully one quarter to one third of a normal supply," he said.

However, in April there were 2,621 single family detached homes for sale, compared to 3,366 a year ago and 681 condos compared to 976 a year ago.

What's causing the shortage?

Other than the region's ongoing lack of homes, plenty.

"People lost retirement benefits in the stock market crash at the beginning of the decade. A percentage of people who would have retired, sold their homes, and moved out of the area, are instead staying put and continuing to work. In times of recession, people don't make radical moves. People who might have looked for a better job, and taken the risk, are happy to continue to have their current jobs. In times of recession, there are less jobs out there for people to transfer to," Suchow said.

Demand is also up because interest rates have fallen for five consecutive weeks, from more than six percent, down to an average 5.75 by May 5 for 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Freddie Mac's numbers.

Creative financing with heavy leverage -- low- and no-money down loans, interest-only payment mortgages and adjustable rate mortgages -- is helping keep home purchases more affordable.

"Buyers are couples, partners and married couples who use these low interest programs to qualify for five to six times their income," said Burns, who is also a board director with the Silicon Valley Association of Realtors.

Also, on the commercial real estate side, there are indicators Silicon Valley's economy is picking up a tail wind out of the doldrums as the first quarter gross absorption of work space soared to 7.52 million square feet, the highest level recorded since the fourth quarter of 2001, according to Colliers International's 2005 First Quarter Silicon Valley Market Report.

San Jose, capital of Silicon Valley, has added 14,000 residents to its population of 944,875 a 1.5 percent annual population growth rate that out paces the rest of the San Francisco Bay Area. It's also the largest growth rate in San Jose in five years, according to the Department of Finance.

Santa Clara County as a whole, grew by 1.1 percent to 1,759,585 people with Gilroy, growing by 2.6 percent, ranked as the county's fastest growing city.

Jim Myrick, president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors is in the camp that believes the season for monthly price jumps by tens of thousands of dollars is just about over, and that the current record median may be overstated.

"My only caveat about the numbers is that this is the season for people to start turning over the higher priced homes which would increase the average price range. Even though that the average price range has increased, I am seeing in my office that there are several properties that are going for full price or a little under," said Myrick, broker of Realty World Realty Solutions in San Jose.

Badagliacco agrees.

"I don't agree it's a bubble that's going to burst, but I can't see this rate of appreciation continuing. Entry level housing in the 750,000 range? That's scary. Even our affordable condo prices are scary," said Badagliacco.

At whatever pressure prices rise or fall, says Bob Moles, chairman of Intero Real Estate Services, the Silicon Valley market will always be an attractive home buying market.

"People come here from all over the world, not just all over the country. There's an explosion in first time home buyers, baby boomers buying their second and third homes or smaller houses, immigrants, people going in together to buy homes. There are very favorable demographic trends, coupled with low interest rates and a finite number of homes," Moles said.

Published: May 6, 2005

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Broderick Perkins parlayed a career in old-school journalism into a contemporary digital news service that really hits home. The award-winning consumer journalist, originally from Wilmington, DE, is founder, publisher and executive editor of the bootstrap DeadlineNews Group, a Silicon Valley-based editorial content and consulting service specializing in residential real estate, consumer news and related editorial consulting services. The DeadlineNews Group includes the website, DeadlineNews.com, offering real estate editorial content and consulting services, and its back shop, the Deadline Newsroom, an open house on news that really hits home. Perkins obtained his formal journalism education from University of Delaware and a journalism boot camp, the Institute of Journalism Education at the University of California-Berkeley. He went on to 20 years of service as a daily newspaper journalist at the Wilmington, DE News Journal and San Jose, CA Mercury News. Perkins covered housing on the San Jose Mercury News reporting team which earned a General News Reporting Pulitzer Prize in 1989 for coverage of the Loma Prieta earthquake. He has also produced real estate, consumer and small business content for the Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, RealtyTimes.com, Nolo.com, Better Homes and Gardens, the National Association of Realtors, Homestore/Move and Intuit/Quicken among more than three dozen publications. In addition to managing the DeadlineNews Group, Perkins most recently served as chief editorial consultant for Nolo's Essential Guide To Buying Your First Home, Nolo, and writes real estate television scripts for RealtyTimes.com.