With hundreds of thousands of articles written over the last few years about the "real estate housing bubble," which is still being debated strongly, Wall Street may be attempting to influence journalists into accomplishing what market fundamentals have so far failed to do -- let the air out.

The hope is that investors, who have sidelined a see-sawing stock market tarnished by mismanagement, lies, and fraud, will stop buying homes and start buying stocks again.

Is Wall Street really trying to undermine housing?

One analyst says no.

"In the past, it seems that there have been tensions between the real estate industry and Wall Street as they sometimes compete for investment/spending dollars," acknowledges Thomas Prendergast, a managed funds professional. "This tension is often used to place financial news stories and editorials in a context that suggests the author may have a vested interest in steering money away from real estate and back towards Wall Street. This is no longer entirely accurate and may oversimplify the matter."

Prendergast explains, "First of all, Wall Streeters are well aware of Greenspan's long-held belief that the wealth effect from house price appreciation exceeds the wealth effect of stock market gains. Therefore, many understand that a slower real estate market could have broader negative economic implications."

If housing were to collapse or even decline, the effects would not benefit Wall Street, maintains Prendergast. "Much of US job growth has been related to the housing industry," he points out. "This includes construction, financing and home furnishings. Meanwhile, the underlying collateral on mortgages would be compromised. Business and consumers alike would suffer."

It may be the rabble-rousing press that is blowing hot air into bubble talk, not Wall Street. "The truth is that Wall Street is largely positive or neutral on the real estate outlook," argues Prendergast. "For example, many bullish analysts appearing on CNBC also suggest that the housing market will remain healthy. They share the NAR's view that rate of price increases and market turnover will simply slow in an orderly fashion."

He continues, "I would also suggest that most of those who are bearish on real estate are also bearish on stocks (or at least taking defensive postions) because they feel that a declining housing market will hurt consumers in general for all the above reasons. Schiller, Roach and Fleckenstien are the most obvious bears that come to mind. None of them have been kind in their assessments of stock valuations."

"The effect on the stock market would depend on the magnitude and cause of a decline in housing prices. Establishing a direct link between a potential decline the real estate market and a potential decline in the stock market is difficult because there are so many variables at play."

Perdergrast identifies some general areas of risk:

• "Consumer spending, the backbone of this recovery, may finally slowdown if real esate prices and sales volume were to decline. Every home bought and sold is associated with a certain amount of subsequent economic activity. Home buyers spend additional dollars on new furniture, remodling, appliances, landscaping and decorating. It is reasonable to expect that, as sales volume declines, this additional economic activity will also decline."

• "In turn, the stock prices of companies with heavy exposure to these consumer areas may be adversely affected. Employment may also suffer in the event that real estate prices and sales volume decline. Each home purchase is also associated with a certain amount of services. As volume in both home buying and refinancing declines, real estate agents, appraisers, movers, title companies and mortgage brokers will be competing for fewer customers."

  "Meanwhile, builders may also slow activity. One might expect to see layoffs or people leaving these industries if weakness persists for any great amount of time. This is important because some of the strongest areas of job growth in this recovery have been related to housing both directly and indirectly. It is significant to note that job growth is already at subpar levels compared to past recoveries."

• "As Alan Greenspan suggests, the wealth effect from housing price gains is greater than that of stock price gains. This is in no small part due to the fact that home owners can directly tap into their equity through home equity loans and refinancing activity. If housing prices fall, these same home owners may be reluctant or unable to supplement their income with exisiting home equity. This would deal another blow to consumer spending on non-essential items.

• "If real estate conditions were to deteriorate severely, the ramifications could eventually reach the balance sheets of any company involved in mortgage lending or holding mortgage debt. The impact would extend far beyond banks and mortgage lenders. This is why some analysts have grown increasingly concerned with what they consider to be loose lending practices. Mortgage default rates have been relatively low. But this is completely unremarkable against the backdrop of a strong real estate market. The current lending standards and new financing instruments have yet to be tested in a market decline of any significance."

Prendergast advises, "For all of these reasons, I believe that it is in Wall Street's interest that we have a healthy real estate market. But this should not be misconstrued to indicate that housing prices can continue at this pace indefinitely without creating threatening imbalances. A healthy real estate market should eventually show some moderation. If not, the imbalances would likely extend beyond real estate prices and also affect the broad economy including the stock market."

Published: August 16, 2005

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