A homeowner writes Realty Times with the question that's on everyone's mind today -- should I sell my house and wait out the coming real estate bubble burst?

"Michael" owns a 10-year-old Englewood, Florida, home on two and a half acres in a Scrub Jay Preserve. With only four other homes as neighbors, he has three bedrooms, two baths, a swimming pool, four-car garage, four-car carport, tool shed, and a 10-minute walk to Manasota Beach.

"I want to move to Vegas, but I am not sure if I want to sell this home, as I think it will only go up in value," writes Michael. "I am thinking of renting it out, and also renting in Vegas for a year to feel it out. If we don't like it in Vegas, we can come back to this home. I am afraid that I will kick myself in the future if I sell. What do you think of this? I hope you can help me out with some ideas."
-- Michael

Realty Times answers:

Michael, your house sounds wonderful, but you are experiencing what a lot of people are lately -- the housing bubble itch.

It sounds like you already have your answer. You're leaning toward holding on to the house, because you're not sure it's time to fold your hand.

Here are a couple of thoughts that can help you decide:

The best case scenario is that you sell at the top in Florida and buy at the bottom in Las Vegas, but that's not going to be the case because Las Vegas homes are up 11.2 percent in value to a median of about $300,100, according to the National Association of Realtors, and that's after doubling in value over several years.

Just up the road from you, Venice, Fl. prices suggest a 34.3 percent rise, for a median home of about $367,800.

California Association of Realtors economist Leslie Appleton-Young tells Realty Times that anecdotally, about 1/3 of Las Vegas homebuyers are from California. Presumably they are fleeing higher prices in their state, which is perhaps what you're trying to do, too.

You don't have that problem because you are already own a home that presumably has appreciated to the point that you'd like to cash out, and a number of people want to retire and move to where you live.

Las Vegas has a lot to offer, but my fear is that prices are still somewhat speculative because they are being pushed by homebuyers who want to make money, not necessarily build a life in the city. So, are you moving for a job? If you intend to rent, why give up a property that's continuing to appreciate?

Another question -- if you sell in Florida, will you be able to buy back in? Will you like life in the desert after being within a 10-minute walk to the beach?

The one thing coastal towns have in common is that they are appreciating a lot faster than inland areas, particularly areas like Las Vegas that have a lot of room to spread. That's one of the things that's held back values in Texas, for example. Builders can keep building further out which puts pressure on older homes. On the coast, you have a finite area in which to build and still enjoy proximity to the beach.

It appears to be a no-brainer, but only if you are willing to manage your own property. If your home has appreciated enough to sell it for a big profit, you could refinance and use the equity to buy another piece of real estate that you can manage.

So the real decision here is not whether you should move to Las Vegas and rent, but whether you should hold on to and manage your real estate. If you are willing to manage the property yourself, or hire a property manager, you can do both.

For your first rental, you need to minimize the learning curve. Sit down with a professional property manager and find out what the costs will be to rent and manage your home for a year. Let them have the responsibility for the property, which is reasonable since you will be out of state. It will be less profit, but it will also be less strain on you.

Published: September 30, 2005

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Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment. Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's. Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. To contact Blanche, email her at . For more articles by Blanche, click here.