What did you do the day after Thanksgiving? If you went shopping instead of house-hunting, you might have been lured to the stores by incredible discounts and sales. The National Retail Federation said that Black Friday weekend grosses were so high that total holiday sales are expected to reach nearly $440 billion for the season, a six-percent increase over last year.

The Federation had thought sales would be five percent, but for the first time in 10 years, it changed its forecast because fuel prices were going down, allowing shoppers to breathe a sigh of relief.

Yet, many economists are beginning to wonder -- what happens when the discounts run out?

Over the summer, both GM and Ford desperately tried to prop up 2005 year-end automobile sales with family-style discounts. Not surprisingly, consumers piled into vehicles that were more expensive than they would have bought without incentives. But by October, when the sales were over, their earnings and sales plummeted. GM announced it would cut 17 percent of its workforce before the sales were over. It's closing plants, while rival Toyota, is opening plants across the U.S.

There are many reasons why GM is being chased by Toyota. Toyota wants to be the number one car maker in the world. Japanese CEOs make about 32 times the average employee while American CEOs earn over 400 times the average worker's salary, meaning management is overpaid while workers, who are responsible for quality, are underpaid or live in fear of losing their jobs. Toyota's culture is more worker-friendly. In addition, it was ready before GM and Ford to mass-produce green cars, and now the U.S. giants are stuck with SUV-sized inventories of vehicles and are early-discounting 2006 models.

Retailers may be in the same situation -- discounting themselves out of business while shoppers go for quality over quantity. As they get more spoiled, will they demand more and more discounts?

The reason we ask is that housing is facing the same future as cars and retail -- an industry trying to appease consumers who won't buy without significant incentives.

The National Association of Realtors found that sales of existing homes fell by nearly three percent and would have fallen more had it not been for the boost provided by post Gulf Coast hurricane homebuyers moving to new areas. Housing inventories have risen to nearly five months on hand, one month short of the critical six-month swing into a buyer's market.

While rising interest rates are being blamed, it could be something else -- the homebuyer is simply pulling back waiting for a better deal to come along.

But that may not be the best strategy for housing. Again, we can look to other industries for guidance.

While automakers and retailers have been complaining of selling mostly discounted items, prices on new inventory has quietly gone higher. The average price of a new vehicle was nearly $28,000 in the third quarter, including financing charges. That's up 6 percent from a year ago, says Comerica Bank, nearly double the rate of inflation. If inventory prices are cut for the holidays, from $4,000 to $9,000 per vehicle, consumers will still pay two percent more than last year.

Ditto for real estate. While sales slowed in October, the median sales price for homes was over 16 percent higher than October 2004.

That's the biggest monthly housing price increase since July 1979, when prices jumped 17 percent year over year. Meanwhile, new home sales are pushing toward a record with a 13 percent increase in October, showing that the housing market still has plenty of surprises left. New home prices also accelerated 1.6 percent for the month.

Realty Times advises that as long as inventories remain below the six-month mark and prices are continuing to rise, the housing boom is far from over, and that GM and the Gap may be willing to discount, dropping higher prices on slow-selling models, but a home seller may opt to simply take their home off the market if they aren't getting the price they want.

Published: December 1, 2005

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Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. For more articles by Blanche, click here.