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Silicon Valley Takes Holiday Breather

Silicon Valley's $745,000 median price is $15,000 off the market's highest peak -- $760,000 set twice earlier this year -- reflecting a deepening trend of area buyers cooling their heels during the holiday season.

"The (slowdown) trends are more noticeable," said Richard Calhoun, broker/owner of Creekside Realty in San Jose and publisher of the Bay Area Real Estate Market Newsletter, a report comprised of statistics from the area's multiple listing service, RE InfoLink of Campbell, CA.

There have been many ups and downs in the expensive Silicon Valley market this year, but generally, home prices in the area have been flat since April, inventory is up and closed sales are down.

The single-family median home price on closed sales was down from the peak, but rose last month to $745,000 up from $741,000 in October this year and up from $649,000 a year ago. Condo prices fell from $495,000 in October to $475,000 in November. They are also up from $425,000 a year ago, Calhoun reported.

Silicon Valley's inventory of single-family homes and condos was 2,895 in November, up by more than 1,000 listings from a year ago at 1,400. November's number was, however, less than the 3,259 listings in October.

The number of single-family homes and condos in closed sales was 1,525 in November up from 1,811 a year ago, but down from 1,704 in October.

Single family homes were selling on an average 37 days, down from 50 in October, but faster than condos, which were selling in an average 45 days, up from 34 in October.

"The real key is how the current market conditions are performing, compared to seasonally adjusted data. Inventory is currently about 5 percent higher than it was in mid-July. The number of sales compared to the previous 10-years has fallen to 93 percent. Based on normal growth in sales, it should be at 107.5 percent. That's a 15 percent drop in buyers," said Calhoun.

"When you combine the increasing inventory and the decreasing number of buyers, the days of unsold inventory is climbing at what appears to be the fastest rate since 1998," he added.

That's giving buyers some wiggle room.

Calhoun's report also shows, county wide, on the average, home sellers are getting 100.7 percent of their asking price, down from more than 101 percent in previous months.

In some areas, however, sellers are getting less than asking, including the San Jose communities of Willow Glen (98.2 percent) and Almaden Valley (98.5 percent); South County (Gilroy, Morgan Hill and San Martin, 99.2 percent) and Campbell (98.8 percent); as well as the high-end communities of Saratoga (97.9 percent) and Los Gatos (96.3 percent).

Why the market is getting tighter for sellers and looser for buyers isn't clear. Interest rates haven't risen sufficiently to chase buyers from the market. In previous market boom cycles rates have been nearly twice as high as they are now in the cooling market.

"There is nothing to pin this on so it is likely a reflection of the buyers and sellers change in their attitude towards the market. I believe that there will be an improvement in the market in January 2006. The question that is still to be answered is how long into 2006 will that improvement last," Calhoun said.

Others say it's seasonal.

"Fall is in the air and inventory is beginning to do what it normally does in preparation for the holidays. Many people take their homes off the market because they just do not want to bother with it during this period of time. I have found that during this time the 'motivated' buyers and sellers are still with us and this is truly a good time to be in the market -- either buying or selling," San Jose, CA-based Realty World Executive Advantage broker/owner Dawn O'Neal reported to RealtyTimes Market Conditions Report for Silicon Valley.

Published: December 7, 2005

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




Broderick Perkins parlayed a career in old-school journalism into a contemporary digital news service that really hits home.

The award-winning consumer journalist, originally from Wilmington, DE, is founder, publisher and executive editor of the bootstrap DeadlineNews Group, a Silicon Valley-based editorial content and consulting service specializing in residential real estate, consumer news and related editorial consulting services.

The DeadlineNews Group includes the website, DeadlineNews.com, offering real estate editorial content and consulting services, and its back shop, the Deadline Newsroom, an open house on news that really hits home.

Perkins obtained his formal journalism education from University of Delaware and a journalism boot camp, the Institute of Journalism Education at the University of California-Berkeley. He went on to 20 years of service as a daily newspaper journalist at the Wilmington, DE News Journal and San Jose, CA Mercury News.

Perkins covered housing on the San Jose Mercury News reporting team which earned a General News Reporting Pulitzer Prize in 1989 for coverage of the Loma Prieta earthquake.

He has also produced real estate, consumer and small business content for the Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, RealtyTimes.com, Nolo.com, Better Homes and Gardens, the National Association of Realtors, Homestore/Move and Intuit/Quicken among more than three dozen publications.

In addition to managing the DeadlineNews Group, Perkins most recently served as chief editorial consultant for Nolo's Essential Guide To Buying Your First Home, Nolo, and writes real estate television scripts for RealtyTimes.com.







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