Is real estate poised for another boom? The economy appears to be expanding, but not so quickly that inflation is a problem. That could mean steady-to-even-lower interest rates, that could impact housing favorably in the spring.

According to the Conference Board, a research group, leading economic indicators fell 0.2 percent in February, which ended four months of increases which suggests that although the economy is growing, it's taking a breather along with housing.

Among the decliners were consumer sentiment (as researched by the University of Michigan) and jobless claims.

But the forecast for new construction hit a minuscule trifecta of gloom, making home builders less confident going into March:

1. Housing starts (the beginning construction of new homes) fell 7.9 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.12 million housing starts, after reaching a 12-year high in January.

2. Building permits, (the forward-looking indicator for the new home construction) also fell 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2.15 million.

3. Permits for single-family homes fell 3 percent to a 1.64 million annual rate.

The National Association of Home Builders' NAHB-Wells Fargo housing market index, an index of home builder sentiment, fell to 55 in March from a downwardly revised 56 in February.

With changes in the numbers in the fractional fractions, there's some suggestion that new home market conditions are still very favorable.

For one, the NAHB regards any index reading over 50 to be good -- that housing demand and sales are continuing at a sustainable pace.

The wild card right now is what mortgage interest rates are going to do -- and that could be the reason homebuyers are sitting on the sidelines and inventories are rising in both new and existing homes in some areas.

After hitting two-and-a-half year highs in late February, mortgage interest rates have drifted downward on news that inflation may be contained for now and that the Federal Reserve is at the end or may be nearing the end of raising short-term interest rates.

If mortgage interest rates hover at around 6.30 percent for benchmarket fixed rate 30-year mortgages, the spring could see another record-setting housing boom.

At least, there won't be a bust.

Published: March 22, 2006

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Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. For more articles by Blanche, click here.