With all the attention real estate receives, you'd think that someone really does know what's going to happen next. However, the best forecasters are the first to admit that no one knows for sure what lies months and years ahead for the real estate market or interest rates. That's why savvy Canadians should prepare their own "what if" strategies for the properties they own or rent and the real estate they plan to buy.

Although there are many knowledgeable and perceptive experts and organizations continuously monitoring real estate statistics and crafting predictions, in this increasingly globally-interconnected world, short-term shifts and long-term outcomes are challenging to pin-down. If those who spend their lives looking into the future can't be sure, how can you? When it comes to real estate, by the time something is common knowledge, it is usually too late to act.

If you can't be sure, be flexible. Create a reasonable response to future events that could have negative repercussions for you, for instance:

• What increase in interest rates could you tolerate financially at renewal time or when arranging a new mortgage and which rate hikes would threaten your real estate and your goals?

• If, by the time you're ready, you get priced out of a location you've selected as a recreational haven or your future home, what other ownership strategies or investment approaches would put you back in the game?

These are the types of questions to ask now, so you have choices if the worst happens. This approach also ensures you are ready to take advantage of every situation in between. The answers lie in shifts in everything from ownership and taxation to population dynamics-data which is tracked and increasingly more available to consumers thanks to the internet:

• Buyers or owners may can go directly to sources like Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and Statistics Canada that accumulate and track statistics from across Canada.

• For regional interpretations, turn to local chapters of national professional organizations like the Canadian Home Builders' Association . Trade associations offer special services to their members, but most also provide free information through their websites or consumer education programs. Some members also offer research information on their sites.

Among the data Stephen Dupuis, Executive Vice President of the Greater Toronto Home Builders' Association (GTHBA), analyzes are CMHC housing starts, New Home Sales information and figures from RealNet Canada Inc., which independently tracks monthly activity at the building site level. The GTHBA's 1400 members include land developers, home builders, professional renovation contractors, sub-contractors and financial firms.

Dupuis says the greatest shift over the years, with respect to GTHBA membership, may be traditional low-rise builders moving into the condominium market. From Great Gulf Homes to Fernbrook Homes and Greenpark Homes, developers who earned solid reputations building single-family homes have entered the condominium market.

"Builders are famous for trying to get market intelligence," said Dupuis, explaining that these professionals monitor market signals and adjust their development activity accordingly. With 800 low-rise and high-rise projects on the books across the GTA, it's obvious that competitive strategies and pricing are essential.

"The thing that has kept the GTA market so strong, so long, is that prices have been steady," said Dupuis. "By and large, if you look at affordability and demand--people can carry the houses as [prices] haven't spiked up like the '80s. They have increased on a cost-push model as builders' costs go up–[prices] must."

Since forecasts project real estate market changes as 'up' or 'down,' we must ask, "What is normal?"

"In the late 80's, early 90's, we did less than 10,000 homes in one year and then 15,000, 18,000 and then almost 40,000 for 7 years -- one year (1986) at 45,000 and now 7 consecutive years -- is that the new normal?," said Dupuis. "I'm not sure how sustainable that is, but we'll not go back to the days of 10,000 and 15,000. We're more likely to see a shift in the product the government is trying to encourage and promote."

In Ontario, the government recently announced housing policy that dictates intensified development to levels of 40 percent in every community to reduce urban sprawl. Reportedly, 80 percent of current intensification -- in the form of condominium development -- is centred in the GTA. It will take time or incentives, or both, before equivalent levels are present across the province although condominium development is increasing in suburban areas like Mississauga and Markham.

"That will help sustain the [condominium] market," said Dupuis. "Typically, the product proposed is more affordable. This may not be people's absolute preference, but it's affordable. If you want to get into the market, your choice is a condo, so that's your starting point. Or drive 'til you qualify, if you want a single-family home. If you want location, you will compromise on product and closeness to the core."

Published: July 11, 2006

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Futurist and Strategist PJ Wade is "The Catalyst" - intent on "Challenging The Best to Become Even Better." PJ earned this title by translating the dynamic impact of Boomers and their multi-generation families into relevant insights that start people thinking and taking action—in business and in life. Author of 8 books and more than 1800 published articles, PJ encourages individuals to become their own futurist. PJ writes and speaks about the insight, knowledge and solid decision-making skills that professionals and their clients need to live and work in this vortex of change. For instance, since PJ knows that home is headquarters for the new decades-long "unretirement," she wrote the popular book "Reverse Mortgages: Best Friend, Worst Enemy...Your Choice!", which is filled with suggestions and cautions on protecting, building and managing home equity. Her new business book, "What's Your Point?: Cut The Crap, Hit The Mark & Stick!" will be published in 2012. As The Catalyst, PJ provides strategic communication, client appreciation and advanced education services to the financial, tourism, lifestyle and service sectors - and the clients they serve. A frequently-quoted financial and business commentator, PJ is a thought-provoking strategic speaker who offers practical, real-life suggestions on leaving "the box" behind and embracing Forward Thinking - a talent she regularly demonstrates in this column. For more on keynotes, blogs, books and information on a range of 21st-Century topics, visit TheCatalyst.com.