The annual convention of the National Association of Realtors begins today in New Orleans, and, from what agents and brokers in my area are saying, the mood isn't going to be as joyful as 2004 or 2003.

You notice that I didn't say anything about last year's meeting in San Francisco. There was a definite chill in the air, especially after housing economists confirmed everyone's worst suspicions of the slowing market.

I've unsuccessfully argued that when I look at today's sales numbers and compare them to recent years, I keep coming up with 2003. That was a record year for sales, if you pay attention to history and have some perspective, but most people don't.

Since the typical home buyer measures mortgages in monthly payments rather than costs over 30 years, it reflects the short attention span that appears to be the national malaise.

I do remember the San Francisco NAR meeting in 1996 as if it were yesterday. It was my first meeting and the first time I was in San Francisco. The atmosphere was gloomy, and "marine layer intrusion" -- that's what my Caltech planetary scientist older son calls "fog" -- had been making it as far inland as Sausalito and wasn't helping the mood.

Instead of the present 2.6 million members, the NAR was at 650,000 and falling, if I can remember the numbers. NAR spending for the convention had been reduced because of the lingering housing slowdown -- depending on where you lived, it had either been slow since 1987 or was showing signs of pulling out of a slump.

There was a definite chill in the air between the NAR and the press, suggesting that Realtors were holding us accountable for it all. We didn't even get a pressroom.

I'd been to my first National Association of Home Builders show in Houston the previous January, and the attitude by the builders toward us was entirely different. You haven't lived until you've seen the floor of the old Astrodome dominated by a $1 million giant faucet dripping water.

Remember, as someone who has spent 40 years (next Aug. 31) working for newspapers, things are slow all over. I didn't make the 1995 NAR convention in Atlanta because of travel-budget cutbacks, and the expenses of most of the meetings I've attended this year. I'll be adding to "business expenses" in my 2006 tax return.

So San Francisco in 1996 was somewhat surprising, but in the years since, the NAR convention has improved with Realtor fortunes.

Which, if you look at the numbers, follow 2003 very closely, but I guess the more you have, the more you want, and that's were things sit today.

Although a reader who recently e-mailed me called me "pro-Realtor" -- he couldn't understand why, when I needed to talk about the real estate market I interviewed real estate agents -- I maintain my middle of the road stance.

The reader said that I haven't been honest in my characterization of the market, saying that it is much worse than the economists' numbers let on.

The reader is not the first or only one to accuse me of pro-Realtor or pro-builder bias. No matter what I write, I stand accused the next day. On the other hand, builders and real estate agents have been accusing me of contributing to the slowdown by writing about it.

On the other hand, when you challenge them, they immediately back down, saying, "I didn't mean you, I meant the media." Wait a minute. I hate the word "media" as much as I do "journalist," since, when I was growing up, the first applied to artists (mixed media) and the other to people who kept diaries.

But I guess, in these times, I'm both.

Even the word "slowdown" is attacked, with the word "normal" substituted for it.

An outspoken broker/appraiser who is, as am I, a member of the Temple University Real Estate Institute faculty, argues that basic economics will tell you that the current market is far from normal.

"A real estate normal market is when supply and demand are almost in equilibrium," he said. "That's not the case now."

The supply of houses is, in some markets, 60 percent higher than a year ago, and buyers are taking their sweet time to pick and choose. Some in the industry suggest, rightly or wrongly, that the buyer's tactic is a reaction to several years of being at the mercy of greedy sellers -- we'll get back at you for keeping us out of the "American Dream" for five years.

What a larger supply of houses requires is increased creativity by both sellers and real estate agents. The burden falls more heavily on the Realtor than the seller, because it is to the agent and the broker that the consumer will turn for advice on getting that house sold and sold quickly.

I hope when the convention closes next Monday, Realtors have found a sure-fire way of getting that job done in this "different" market.

Published: November 9, 2006

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Al Heavens writes about real estate and home repair and improvement. He is the author of What No One Ever Tells You About Renovating Your Home: Real-Life Advice For Hassle-free, Cost-Effective Remodeling.