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Jobs, Housing Reports Subject To Interpretation

It was the same jobs report from the Labor Department, released Friday, but the media's response to it was a little on the pessimistic side, to say the least.

  • U.S. employers added 97,000 jobs in February - Associated Press

  • Job growth slows to 97,000 in February - Marketwatch

  • Job growth weakest in 2 years - CNNMoney.com

While 97,000 jobs was the smallest one-month gain since January 2005, that stand-alone fact isn't as ominous as it sounds, unless you are using a one-month change to signify a trend. After all, if it bleeds, it leads, as it's said in the news world, but the overall report by the Labor Department was slightly more optimistic, unless you're one of those who lost jobs.

The Labor Department announced that while the housing sector (construction jobs fell by 62,000) and factory sectors (payrolls fell by 14,000) of the economy shed jobs, the service sector added 168,000 jobs for a net total of 97,000.

Some say that job growth is slowing because February clocked the slowest rate in two years, but others note that the month suffered some particularly nasty weather with record snows and freezing temperatures across much of the Northeast. For those who want to wait for more definitive signs of job recession, the spotlight passes to more compelling news -- that the national unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped back down to 4.5 percent.

Payroll growth for the previous two months was revised upward to 146,000 jobs created from 111,000 jobs reported.

The average hourly wage also went up six cents (who says pennies don't count anymore?) in February, putting wages up 4.1 percent, well ahead of the inflation rate of 2.1 percent as calculated by the Consumer Price Index.

If this makes you feel good about the economy, enjoy the feeling while it lasts because the press says there's still reason to worry. The Associated Press reported that strong wage growth ... could raise fears about inflation, which would eventually hurt workers' wallets.

And then there's the issue of housing.

The Census Bureau reported that unsold new homes reached a record high in January of 175,000, up nearly 50 percent from the previous year, a glut that hurt builders from production schedules all the way to stock prices. Empty homes also reached a record high in the fourth quarter of 2006 -- 2.1 million, says the Census, opening the curtain on the desperation of speculators trying to dump properties they never intended to occupy, and sellers who have already moved, leaving their homes vacant.

Overbuilding, speculation, and easy high-risk money to borrowers are among the reasons to blame the glut of homes for sale, but the building industry and existing homes industry are working to alleviate inventories. Both sectors reported lower inventories on hand for December 2006.

But a tsunami in the subprime market may knock a huge portion of borrowers already challenged by high housing price -- those that can only get into a home with a high-risk interest-only or option loan. Those with the poorest credit will find it harder to qualify thanks to major subprime lenders such as New Century facing possible bankruptcy or exiting from the subprime category such as Fremont. Even so, only six percent of homeowners are nonprime borrowers with adjustable rate loans, says the Mortgage Bankers Association, and many of those will be rolled into new lower fixed rate loans, as loan rates have dropped to attractive near-30-year-low levels.

So the takeaway is that no matter what the news is, there's sure to be more than one interpretation of the facts.

Published: March 12, 2007

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment.

Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's.

Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68.


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In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.

     

Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans.


Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR

"The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors

Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007

That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation
2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase
2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2

Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here.

To contact Blanche, email her at .

For more articles by Blanche, click here.







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