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Real Estate News and Advice |
July 3, 2008 |
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Population Demographics Require Twenty-First Century Interpretation
by PJ Wade
Statistics Canada announces the release of another section of 2006 Census data and the media responds with a flood of extrapolations. This pattern may hold valuable clues for real estate buyers and sellers as it does for developers, planners and municipal officers, but don't confuse predictions with fact. Free, online access to Stats Can data enables consumers to go to the source and not rely entirely on second-hand interpretations. Census data form a significant forecasting tool for communities and governments. This statistical coast-to-coast-to-coast, one-day snapshot of the 31,612,897 people in Canada determines the relative distribution of approximately C$62.1 billion in federal funding transfers to provinces and territories. The July 2007 release of "Portrait of the Canadian Population in 2006, by Age and Sex," like other releases, triggered a wave of media coverage that combined interesting facts, valuable insights, flawed thinking and misleading suppositions. Important clues and issues do emerge, especially for those deciding where and how to live over the thirty, forty or more active, involved years which have replaced the traditional quiet handful of years after work. Through years of research, interviewing and analysis, I have discovered many insights, hindsights, foresights and warnings from past generations and their "retirements" that can assist in the design of a fulfilling twenty-first century "new retirement" -- or unretirement, as it has become -- but the past should not be seen as the ultimate dictator of what lies ahead. Few Boomers want the same lifestyles and futures as their parents and grandparents. We live in a theoretical era since the first-time-in-history phenomenon that is The Age Wave -- the collective term for Baby Boomers -- introduces segments of the population in greater numbers, wealth and influence than have never been experienced before. We have never built housing, offered municipal services, created health maintenance programs or provided public transit for the segments of the population that we continue to describe by chronological age as if that is an indicator of the homogeneity of the groups. Boomers are generally described as those born between 1947 and 1966, and so are currently aged 41 to 60. This is not a homogeneous group, but a rich mosaic of diverse individuals. Chronological age is no longer relevant as the key lifestyle determinant. More significantly, the range of unretirement alternatives will continually broaden until it changes the way students select educational pathways and choose careers. Even now, increasing numbers of university-grads and entry-level workers, as well as students in high schools and universities, make decisions based on when they'll be able to take entrepreneurial control of their incomes and live outside corporate dictates. The Portrait release concentrates on the number of people aged 65 and over, which increased by more than 446,700 compared with the last Census in 2001 (+11.5%) to reach 4.3 million. Descriptions of Canada as an aging population should not be confused with the twenty-first century reality of positive or active aging. In demographics, "agingpopulation" is a technical term for the point at which the median age of a country or region increases. This shift towards greater ages may result from a decline in birth rate, a rise in longevity or both. In common use, the expression "aging society" can include reference to "a lot of old people" in the most negative sense of aging as a synonym for frailty, weakness and mental deficiencies. Society's reaction to age and aging in the last two centuries still infuses the thinking and behaviour of individuals, organizations and governments. Ageism or prejudice against age can undermine thinking, consciously and unconsciously, on many levels and shortchange all concerned. Ingrained bias, stereotypic thinking and inflexible attitudes towards aging, work and many aspects of life can undermine analysis and interpretation of data. The 2006 Census describes Kelowna, British Columbia, statistically as "the oldest" and Barrie, Ontario, as "the youngest" by population. What do you believe these labels tell you about life in two such different locations, both with great unretirement potential? We already see shifts in thinking that demonstrate "retirement" no longer marks the end of a purposeful life. To beat the rush ahead, some people are buying their dream "retirement" home in cottage country, on ocean waterfront or deep within people-friendly city neighbourhoods well in advance of an intended exodus from their current workplace. Gone are expectations that a move into an institutional retirementhome is inevitable. Aging now means continued independent living in your own home and in a neighbourhood you choose. When you're deciding where and how to live, Stats Can community profiles can be an interesting place to start. Published: July 31, 2007 Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
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