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Consumer Resources: Conference Board and BILD Track Real Estate

Residential real estate sales have broken records all summer and are forecast to carry this intensity into the fall. Preoccupation with sales peaks can cause consumers to forget that not every property is in great demand. Consumers may also overlook the importance of non-residential construction to the growth of their communities. When shopping for a new property, neighbourhood or province, wise buyers investigate overall economic growth to ensure there is sustainability beyond today's economic rush.

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Trade associations and independent research groups increasingly provide online access to reports, releases and statistics that consumers may use to explore beyond the headlines. For instance, Ontario's 1,500-member Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), recently announced that while GTA sales of single-detached, semi-detached and town-homes rose 33 per cent from July 2006 to this July and new home sales climbed 60 per cent, "sales of high-rise condominium suites nearly doubled compared with last July, rising a whopping 90 per cent year over year."

Since residential sales had been forecast to decline in 2007, these new records are more than noteworthy. BILD credits moderate price increases -- 5.6 per cent for low-rise homes and 4.2 per cent for high-rise homes over the past 12 months -- with fostering unabated home buying demand.

Relating percentages to specifics may bring patterns into focus. For instance, RealNet Canada Inc., BILD's official independent source of GTA new home market information, reported, "... June/July sales of 9,900 units this year [compared] with roughly 8,000 sales recorded in 2002 and 2003. Combined sales of nearly 6,000 high-rise units this summer compares with 3,671 last summer, which was second best ever."

To compliment the analysis and research of these and other groups, consider real estate board sales data on residential and other property types. With the professional guidance and market knowledge of your local real estate salesperson or broker, sales trends and statistics for neighbourhoods can be evaluated relative to your real estate buying or selling plans.

Since commercial, institutional and industrial real estate are essential components of any community, don't stop at residential when exploring sustainability. According to The Conference Board of Canada (CBoC) biannual report, Canadian Industrial Outlook: Canada's Non-Residential Construction Industry–Summer 2007, after more than three years of growth, profits in Canada's non-residential construction industry are expected to peak at C$2 billion in 2007. CBoC is an independent, nonprofit Canadian organization funded through fees charged for services to the private and public sectors.

"Construction of office buildings, especially in Alberta and Ontario, is the main reason for the record financial performance in recent years," said CBoC Economist and report author Valerie Poulin. "However, rising material and labour costs are starting to trim builders' profit margins. Since labour accounts for a third of all costs, the tight labour market is of particular concern for the industry."

Poulin also reports other findings including:

  • Solid economic growth is pushing office vacancy rates down and spurring construction activity, leading to record price increases last year and this year. Both revenues and costs rose by more than 20 per cent in 2006, and are forecast to increase by more than 10 per cent this year. In 2007, revenues will again rise faster than costs, as they have for the past two years.

  • Labour and material costs for new construction will increase faster than revenues beginning in 2008 with profits predicted to fall every year through 2011, but to remain above past standards.

Watch for the release of industry reports in the business section of major and local newspapers and online services to keep abreast of economic trends and shifts in sectors that directly affect your chosen community. The other industries which define the Canadian economy, and may include your employer, your top clients or your own business, will also have varying impacts on different communities and regions.

Published: August 28, 2007

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




Strategist and Futurist is The Catalyst -- intent on "Helping The Best Get Better." An internationally-recognized "new retirement" authority, PJ's research, writing and speaking programs focus on decisions Baby Boomers face to achieve a successful future.

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