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July 3, 2008
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Builders' Confidence Shaken, But Overbuilding Continues

For the third consecutive month, builder confidence sustained record lows. One out of five builders are confident about the single-family home market, according to a monthly index.

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Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, in June 2005 the index was 72, which means 72 out of 100 builders were confident of market conditions. Today, only 19 out of 100 feel so positive.

Realty Times question is: where do they live?

While it's true that some areas are growing, most metros are stagnant. Even positive job growth isn't enough to get buyers motivated.

Buyers are so scared, they're not even dreaming about homes right now. According to a builder sub-index, traffic of prospective buyers fell three points to a record-low 14, and that's what has builder confidence down. To have buyers, you need lookie-loos.

So it was no surprise that The Commerce Department reported that building permit applications are down for six months in a row in November. That's the slowest pace for since June 1993.

Construction of new homes and apartments was also down 3.7 percent. New single-family home building fell by 5.5 percent to an annual rate of 829,000 units. That's the lowest level of home building since April 1991.

But just to keep their hand in, builders kept busy with multi-family construction -- up 4.4 percent to an annual rate of 332,000 units.

"At this point, many builders are bracing themselves for the winter months when home buying traditionally slows, scaling down their inventories and repositioning themselves for the time when market conditions can support an upswing in building activity -- most likely by the second half of 2008," Seiders said in a release.

That's OK. The party was great while it lasted, but building for speculators couldn't last forever.

But before you join in the pity party, consider this: homebuilding is still outpacing household formation, which means some areas will continue to have more new homes than they need.

Published: December 19, 2007

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment.

Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's.

Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68.


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Review - Honors

In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.

     

Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans.


Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR

"The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors

Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007

That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation
2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase
2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2

Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here.

To contact Blanche, email her at .

For more articles by Blanche, click here.



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