Be careful what you wish for -- you just might get it. The national press wanted to knock housing down as king of the hill, and they succeeded, but now the stock market is tumbling down the hill as well. And the recession that's been feared for months will finally come.

Last week's jobs report is the harbinger of a tough winter to weather. Unemployment is now over 5% from 4.5% only a quarter ago. December job growth was the weakest since 2003, according to the Labor Department. That's far worse than forecast by analysts.

How can we have job gains and rising unemployment at the same time? Shouldn't those numbers be in lockstep?

Well, that's where statistics can fall short. Unemployment numbers are worthless without the context of demographics. Our population is growing, but less than half of industry is hiring (48%.)

We're adding one person (net gain) to the U.S. population every 13 seconds. About two/thirds are working age, so we're adding around 2,217 people a day. Times 30 days? That's 66,520 people who need jobs and we only added 18,000 in December.

That means competition for jobs just got harder. If you get to keep your job, you're not likely to get a raise, unless you're the CEO of a public company, and those aren't likely to do that well in 2008 either.

Obviously, our mixed-up values need some serious straightening out. We haven't had a housing bubble, we've had a credit bubble.

We're a capitalistic society, so we've put out as many products and services as we can think of and made them as easy to buy as possible. We've encouraged people to spend, including buying homes when they couldn't afford them. We've encouraged them to refinance and use the money for vacations and college. And now the public is maxing out its credit cards and we're at negative savings, owing more than our disposable income should allow.

We're at the point where we can't make people buy anymore.

But that could be a good thing. Job loss will shake consumers up, and they'll have to be wooed back to the malls and to housing. And the only way to do that is lower prices and cheaper credit.

The Federal Reserve will cut target borrowing rates again, and consumer credit will become even cheaper than it already is.

But smart consumers, especially homebuyers, will do the smart thing when that time comes -- use the lower rates to clean up their credit.

If you know anyone who wants to buy a home, tell them low interest rates are a gift and it won't last.

Published: January 7, 2008

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Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment. Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's. Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. To contact Blanche, email her at . For more articles by Blanche, click here.