If you stand back and only look at the negative economic and housing news this week, you might feel a bit numb -- and a little discouraged.

But if you focus on the bigger economic picture, you might be surprised at some of the good news that's lurking out there -- especially the forward-looking factors.

On the negative side, you probably know the numbers: New homes sales down 4.7 percent in the latest month. Median home resale prices down 1.8 percent for the full year of 2007 -- the first times prices have dropped on a national basis since 1968. Foreclosure filings up 75 percent for the year, leaving dozens of major markets clogged with bank-owned real estate for sale at depressed markets.

What about the positives? Some of them are probably in the category of "news you never heard about because it never got reported."

For example: The most comprehensive national index measuring home price movements, covering almost 7,500 Zip codes and 662 counties in all 50 states and the District of Columbia -- the First American-Corelogic Index -- found prices flat or positive in 31 of the 50 states.

The national numbers are being dragged down primarily by sizable declines in a couple of big states: California and Florida, along with Arizona, Nevada and -- here's a little surprise -- Rhode Island.

Among the 60 percent of states with positive performance are the current top performers of the pack: Texas, Utah, New Mexico, the Carolinas and Montana.

Then there are what we call the forward-looking factors: Mortgage interest rates continue to hover just above 40-year lows and the Federal Reserve keeps pushing down short term rates -- twice this month alone.

The economic stimulus package coming from Washington by mid February should be another plus: It promises to raise loan limits for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA well above $600,000 -- maybe even higher than $700,000.

According to estimates from the National Association of Realtors, pushing the limits to just $625,000 could stimulate 350,000 more home sales this year alone -- and lead to $44 billion in new economic activity -- all with no expenditure of taxpayers' money.

How about THAT for a cost-efficient stimulus plan for real estate?

Published: January 31, 2008

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consumer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.