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July 24, 2008
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Realty Viewpoint: Inflation, Consumer Sentiment Recall Stagflation of 1970s

Several recent newsbites have the real estate industry gritting its teeth, because it keeps looking worse and worse for housing.

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If the industry misses a good spring selling season, it's over for 2008.

Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index says that home prices fell 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. That's a much gloomier assessment than the figures gathered by the National Association of Realtors and OFHEO (the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.) This is old news, since we already know that 2007 was not a banner year for real estate, but the financial press sees this report as the most reliable backward-looking housing sales index, even though it only covers 100 major markets and doesn't include newer homes or condominiums.

The dual threats of stagflation and shaky jobs have impacted consumer confidence. Higher energy costs are impacting wholesale prices. A one percent jump in December doesn't sound like much of an increase, but consider that the total increase for wholesale prices in 2007 rose 7.5 percent. That's the fastest, largest price increase since fall 1981 when a decade of oil troubles and stagflation finally culminated in a recession.

Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent last month, driven by rising food, energy and health care. Food prices rose 1.7 percent -- the biggest increase in three years, led by staples beef, bread products and eggs. Energy costs rose 1.5 percent.

Foreclosure filings in January rose to one for every 534 homes, says RealtyTrac, an eight percent increase over December. The highest hit states were those with either massive job loss or speculative homebuying including California, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Massachusetts, Georgia, Connecticut, Ohio and Michigan.

The message is clear -- Main Street is hurting. That's why the Conference Board found its latest Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 75.0 in February from 87.3 in January.

One slight ray of hope is what may happen on do-nothing Capital Hill this week. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and others are set to testify before Congress today and tomorrow about the state of this economy.

All they can say is what we've tried isn't working, at least not for Main Street.

Published: February 27, 2008

Use of this article without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.




Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment.

Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's.

Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68.


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Review - Honors

In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.

     

Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans.


Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR

"The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors

Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007

That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation
2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase
2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2

Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here.

To contact Blanche, email her at .

For more articles by Blanche, click here.



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