It didn't take long for the bloom to leave the rose. The notoriously pessimistic backward-looking S&P Case-Shiller Index says housing prices fell a record 2.4 percent between December and January and 10.7 percent for the year. Following on the heels of the February report from the National Association of Realtors, the Case-Shiller report appears to contradict the NAR's findings that home sales went up 2.9 percent and home prices fell 8.2 percent over the past year.

Well, there's a reason for that. The two reports don't cover the same period, the same markets, or the same types of housing. The NAR's report covered February, not January, and it includes all market areas where there's a Realtor reporting sales, and it includes multifamily housing such as condos and coops.

So to say the NAR's report is a little more relevant is an understatement.

So you have to be careful what you read and what you pay attention to.

But that didn't stop the financial press from fueling more housing panic.

CBS Marketwatch used this headline - "Housing Prices Fall At Record Rate" to tell this story: "Home prices in 20 major U.S. metro areas have plunged a record 10.7 percent in the past year as prices continued to decelerate, Standard & Poor's said Tuesday."

CNNMoney.com used this headline: "Home prices: Down record 11 percent - The residential real estate market continues to deteriorate in 2008, with 20 key markets reporting steep drops."

Gee, is this happening right now? No, it happened two months ago, to only 20 markets, and to only same-sale homes.

The only comparable report to the Case-Shiller Index is OFHEO's ( the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) and it showed only a 3 percent decline in prices for the past year.

There's a reason for that -- OFHEO doesn't include nonconforming mortgages. Just to recap, it's jumbo and subprime loans that have been the most volatile.

No wonder Consumer Confidence is in the dumpster. People don't know what to believe, so they believe the worst.

The Conference Board just reported the lowest consumer view of expectations in 35 years.

"Looking ahead, consumers' outlook for business conditions, the job market and their income prospects is quite pessimistic and suggests further weakening may be on the horizon," said Lynn Franco, director of consumer research.

While consumer confidence is tracked through March, it's still only a short-term forward-looking indicator, and not a credible one at that. Consumers in March were slammed by a plummeting stock market, and many watched their 401k's all but disappear. No wonder they're pessimistic.

They'll pull back on spending, and then prices will come down, and then they'll start spending again, and the whole cycle will start all over.

Published: March 26, 2008

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Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment. Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's. Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. To contact Blanche, email her at . For more articles by Blanche, click here.