Existing home sales slid two percent in March, says the National Association of Realtors, down over 19 percent from March 2007 when interest rates were nearly one-quarter percent higher. The national median existing-home price (2) for all housing types was $200,700 in March, down 7.7 percent from a year ago when the median was $217,400. Inventories rose one percent and are now at a nearly 10-month supply.

But just as with any averages or medians, these numbers don't tell the whole story. Slower sales in higher cost areas are eclipsing the rising sales in lower cost markets.

Hard-hit Michigan, California, and Florida are obscuring surprising gains in Maryland, Washington and Texas.

For the fourth quarter of 2007, home sales up in Cumberland, Maryland (19 percent) and Yakima, Washington (18 percent) while Lansing, Michigan and Sacramento, California are down over 18 percent over fourth quarter 2006.

Many metropolitan statistical areas that missed the housing boom of 2001-2006 showed handsome increases. Amarillo, TX, was up 11 percent in price for the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City was up 8.2 percent, and so on.

Seventy-three MSAs showed increases in the fourth quarter 2007, while 77 showed declines, so a little over half of 150 MSAs showed a decline in Q4 07.

But not all cities are doing as well as their home prices would suggest. For example, Dallas-Fort Worth was recognized as the MSA adding more jobs than any other in the U.S. recently. Yet, Big D is more than 25 percent below the national median price at $145,000, showing only the most modest price gains at 0.5 percent. This indicates other factors at work in home prices. Employment is keeping home prices stable, and buyers aren't on the sidelines because of fear but because they want bigger bargains.

While some might interpret the NAR report as a little too upbeat, consider this. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that sales of single-family homes dropped 2.7 percent to 4.35 million, down 18.4 percent for the year ending in March. OFHEO uses data from government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or homes purchased with conventional loans, and still came within 6/10s of a percent of the NAR's findings.

What this suggests is that while sales are slower, so are high-risk home purchases. And that means the end to the housing malaise is one month closer.

We'll know more when the NAR releases its quarterly data in a separate survey on May 13th.

Published: April 23, 2008

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