Existing home sales slid two percent in March, says the National Association of Realtors, down over 19 percent from March 2007 when interest rates were nearly one-quarter percent higher. The national median existing-home price (2) for all housing types was $200,700 in March, down 7.7 percent from a year ago when the median was $217,400. Inventories rose one percent and are now at a nearly 10-month supply.

But just as with any averages or medians, these numbers don't tell the whole story. Slower sales in higher cost areas are eclipsing the rising sales in lower cost markets.

Hard-hit Michigan, California, and Florida are obscuring surprising gains in Maryland, Washington and Texas.

For the fourth quarter of 2007, home sales up in Cumberland, Maryland (19 percent) and Yakima, Washington (18 percent) while Lansing, Michigan and Sacramento, California are down over 18 percent over fourth quarter 2006.

Many metropolitan statistical areas that missed the housing boom of 2001-2006 showed handsome increases. Amarillo, TX, was up 11 percent in price for the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City was up 8.2 percent, and so on.

Seventy-three MSAs showed increases in the fourth quarter 2007, while 77 showed declines, so a little over half of 150 MSAs showed a decline in Q4 07.

But not all cities are doing as well as their home prices would suggest. For example, Dallas-Fort Worth was recognized as the MSA adding more jobs than any other in the U.S. recently. Yet, Big D is more than 25 percent below the national median price at $145,000, showing only the most modest price gains at 0.5 percent. This indicates other factors at work in home prices. Employment is keeping home prices stable, and buyers aren't on the sidelines because of fear but because they want bigger bargains.

While some might interpret the NAR report as a little too upbeat, consider this. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that sales of single-family homes dropped 2.7 percent to 4.35 million, down 18.4 percent for the year ending in March. OFHEO uses data from government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or homes purchased with conventional loans, and still came within 6/10s of a percent of the NAR's findings.

What this suggests is that while sales are slower, so are high-risk home purchases. And that means the end to the housing malaise is one month closer.

We'll know more when the NAR releases its quarterly data in a separate survey on May 13th.

Published: April 23, 2008

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Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment. Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's. Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. To contact Blanche, email her at . For more articles by Blanche, click here.