You can take almost any piece of information and make it sound good or bad. And no one is better at spin than the financial press when it wants to get behind a story like the housing slump.

The Associated Press couldn't wait to quote housing bear Robert Shiller when he said during a speech two days ago, that "there's a good chance housing prices will fall further than the 30 percent drop in the historic depression of the 1930s."

If that doesn't make you want to jump off a ledge, here's more. Home prices nationwide have already dropped 15 percent since peaking in 2006, so we could only be halfway there, according to Shiller's chillers.

The reason Shiller gets this kind of press for his proclamations, is that he's got strong credentials. He's a Yale economist and co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index and Macromarkets LLC. And he correctly predicted the stock market bubble bursting in 2001 in his book Irrational Exuberance.

But there's another side to the story that few reporters are telling. Shiller's index is used to help securities investors buy hedge funds against housing prices. The more people are afraid, the more money Shiller makes.

Certainly some areas are still hurting badly -- such as California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Michigan, but despite the slowdown in these states, other states, particularly in the Midwest, are doing quite well, well enough to keep most of the real estate industry at their desks.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the housing slump of 1.2 percent for 2007 still represents the fifth best sales record in history. Sales reported for March continue to be down over last year, but 73 of 150 markets reported gains and home sales are still holding their own with recent record-breaking years.

While Shiller is correct that housing markets take time to turn around, the NAR expects an upturn in sales and home prices by 2009.

For that reason, real estate agents haven't abandoned the industry, despite the fear-mongering of some pundits. Business is more challenging for many agents, but most understand that it's a cyclical business, says the NAR. After four years of record-setting sales, a decline from the unsustainable levels reached in 2005 is understandable and not a reason for panic.

In fact, the NAR says its membership has gone down to 1,235,598 members in March, down from a record high of 1,370,758 in October 2006. That number is equal to the record set for new members in August 2005.

Many agents are in fields related to sales such as property management (rentals), commercial brokerage, appraisal, consulting, and insurance, says the NAR, so they have diversified income. In addtiion, most agents build their business through repeat business and referrals, so the longer they're in the business the higher their income.

Because seasoned agents are better prepared to weather a cyclical downturn, most of the attrition is likely from newcomers who weren't able to sufficiently built their business, suggests the NAR.

The real estate industry still believes in real estate, even during the "biggest finanical crisis since the Great Depression," says Shiller. You can take almost any piece of information and make it sound good or bad. And no one is better at spin than the financial press when it wants to get behind a story like the housing slump.

Published: April 24, 2008

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Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment. Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's. Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. To contact Blanche, email her at . For more articles by Blanche, click here.