It's official. Wall Street has declared a bear market.

The stock market is said to be in a bear market if the Dow industrials have lost over 20 percent off their highs. We reached a high of over 14,000 on October 9, 2007. Yesterday, the DOW dipped to just above 11,200.

That's a much faster decline than housing, which lost 6.3 percent from May 2007 to '08, according to the National Association of Realtors. Home prices are down 17 percent in April since reaching their highs back in 2005, says the negatively-biased Case-Shiller index. If you use the NAR's numbers, sales prices started to decline in July 2006. Compared to a median price of $230,000 then, a similar home for sale today is worth $208,600, or a little under nine percent less.

Maybe that will move the mass hysteria away from housing.

Now, whether the financial press likes it or not, it appears as though we're headed for a recession. And housing isn't the culprit -- it's gas.

Homebuyers changed their behavior when house prices outpaced income and lenders dried up the money tree. The same thing is happening with gas. When it took four times income to buy a home, consumers rebelled. Now that gas is over $4 a gallon, consumers have reached the pain threshold, and are putting the brakes on truck and car sales.

Year-to-year, GM has lost 70 percent of its stock value, and is at the lowest share price since 1954. Ford has lost 49 percent of share value, says the University of Chicago's Center for Research in Security Prices.

Those losses are huge, but where's the panic? When housing lost median value for the first time in 2006, the media went ballistic. But when the DOW loses 20 percent, the media is already looking for Pollyannas to tell us the sun will be out tomorrow.

Already the press is flooded with stories -- is it the bottom? GM is madly working on 16 new vehicles, mostly hybrids and cars. Is it time to reinvest in GM?

Are you kidding? Consumers are still bleeding. Wages aren't keeping up with inflation. Payrolls have been cut for five months in a row.

Bear markets don't last long, they tell us. Now's the time to start looking for bargains, they tell us.

At least we can turn off the worry button for inflation, the press tells us.

Funny, where was all this optimism and opportunism when housing started losing value?

Sheesh.

Published: July 2, 2008

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Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68. Order Now Review - Honors In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.       Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans. Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR "The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors Coverage from WSMV, Nashville - 8-14-2007 That Interview Guy - Get Inside The Head Of Today's Generation 2007 AE Institute Session - To purchase 2006 AE Institute Session - Parts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 HouseValues Mastermind call - Parts 1 2 Blanche's fireside chat with Jeremy Conaway, HAR - Click here. For more articles by Blanche, click here.