Builders, plan accordingly. A new economic report during the U.S. Conference of Mayors Annual Meeting in Miami reveals that U.S. economic growth for 2008 has weakened considerably, while unemployment and consumer prices have risen sharply. According to the report, a sustained recovery is not expected until mid-2009 at the earliest.

"Clearly, conditions in the housing market remain very weak, and our builder members are not seeing any signs of improvement," noted NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) Chief Economist David Seiders. "Indeed, the continuing erosion of employment and consumer confidence/sentiment, coupled with surging energy costs, falling house prices and rising home mortgage foreclosures, pose considerable downside risks to the economy and our housing forecast. A targeted stimulus such as a temporary home-buyer tax credit would help turn this situation around and restore housing as an engine of economic growth."

The economic forecast for the nation's 363 metro economies -- which are made up of cities and suburbs -- will remain sluggish at best and will slow to 1.4 percent, almost one-third below last year's rate of 2.0 percent, and half of the average growth rate for the last three years of 2.8 percent. While metro areas, which are the engines that drive the nation's economy, have helped prevent a more severe downturn, there is no doubt that they are bearing a heavy burden as a result of the current economic weakness.

"Our findings highlight how critical U.S. metro economies are to the future economic security of this nation," said U.S. Conference of Mayors President, Trenton Mayor Douglas H. Palmer. "When our cities and suburbs grow, the nation prospers; when they struggle, the nation struggles."

The report, prepared by Global Insight, also finds that unemployment growth for 2008 will remain sluggish as well with only a 0.4 percent increase. One-third (113) of U.S. metros will experience actual job declines this year. The projected gross metropolitan product (GMP) growth of 1.5 percent for 2009 will continue this sluggish performance.

"Today's numbers are a reflection of how much our members are hurting as this downturn in housing markets continues," said NAHB President Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. "Many are small-business owners who are the backbone of their local economies, and in some cases they are having to lay off family members and friends just to stay afloat. Congress can't act too quickly to help reverse this trend."

"Each week that goes by, another 15,000 workers are losing their jobs and 47,000 families are entering foreclosure. Home equity has fallen by $879 billion during the past year alone," said Howard. "How many more Americans have to suffer before Congress will act?"

The sluggish growth among metros in the current slowdown compounds the fact that many metros are suffering from a prolonged employment downturn. Almost 86 percent of the nation's jobs were generated in U.S. metro economies. The report finds that 80 metros have not regained the jobs they lost since the last recession in 2001. Additionally, 71 metro areas will not see any gains in employment for the entire decade. Over half of these metros, led by Detroit and Cleveland, are located in the Midwest. Combined, the 80 metros that have not fully recovered their jobs begin this slowdown with more than 900,000 fewer jobs than at the start of the 2001 recession, including Detroit, down 163,500 jobs and San Jose, down 155,000 jobs.

"These forecasts make it even more urgent that Congress and the President complete mortgage foreclosure legislation as soon as possible," Palmer said. "The nation's mayors, again, strongly urge the mortgage industry to increase and accelerate its efforts to prevent foreclosures. The overall situation is not getting better."

Furthermore, the report forecasts that the housing crisis continues to worsen. It predicts that in 2008 housing starts will reach an all-time low of 930,000 starts. Existing home sales and housing values will continue to decline throughout the year as foreclosures continue to grow. Metro-area housing values are expected to tumble nearly $1.46 trillion this year, worse than the previous November 2007 forecast of $1.2 trillion. Almost all metros, 336 out of 360 (93 percent) are expected to see some sort of decline in home values, led by the Los Angeles metro, followed by Washington, DC, San Francisco, and Riverside. Foreclosure activity is expected to rise to 2.2 million homes, representing a property value of $488.4 billion.

Additional key findings include:

• In 2008, 142 of 363 metros (39 percent) will register below 1 percent real GMP growth, 33 (9 percent) of those actually contracting.

• More than 70 percent of the nation's metros in 2008 are expected to record less than 1 percent job growth, the rate that is typically needed to absorb new entrants into the job market.

• Metro area job growth will improve only slightly to 0.7 percent in 2009; 73 metros will still see job declines next year.

• The largest real GMP gains in 2008 will come from New York, $20.62 billion and Houston $9.96 billion; the fastest growing will be Houma, LA (5.2 percent); Odessa, TX (5.0 percent); and El Paso, TX (4.4 percent).

• Peak-to-peak employment gains (the difference between the current job level peak and the employment peak prior to the 2001 recession) were led by Phoenix at 307,100 jobs; Houston at 298,300; Washington at 289,400; Riverside at 233,800; and Miami at 220,600.

• Metros with the largest peak-to-peak job declines were Detroit, down 163,500 jobs; San Jose, down 155,000; San Francisco, down 113,700; Boston down 72,700 and Cleveland, down 59,700.

[Note: This Metro Economies report was prepared for the U.S. Conference of Mayors and it's Council for the New American City by the economic forecasting firm, Global Insight Inc. You can download the entire report from the U.S. Conference of Mayors website at usmayors.org. The U.S. Conference of Mayors is the official nonpartisan organization of cities with populations of 30,000 or more. There are 1,139 such cities in the country today, each represented in the Conference by its chief elected official, the Mayor.]

Published: July 7, 2008

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Peter L. Mosca is president and founder of BAK Communications, Inc. He has over 22 years of communications and media consulting experience, serving a variety of nonprofit organizations, including the CCIM Institute and the REALTOR Association on all three levels – national, state and local. He is the Spokesperson Trainer for the CCIM's Jay Levine Academy and trains hundreds of residential REALTORS nationwide to be effective industry spokespeople. He is consistently ranked as "excellent" by about 90% of those who attend his presentations. While his principal consulting focuses are public speaking and media relations development and content delivery and management, Peter is also the host of the Voice America Network's weekly radio program, "Income Property Investment Talk," a one-hour program that brings the powerhouses of commercial and residential real estate to property investors every Wednesday at 11 a.m. EST. Peter is married 17 years to his wife Barbara. They have two children: Ashley, 15 and Kelli, 12. Hence, the name BAK Communications, Inc.