If you want an independent, authoritative guide to where the economy is heading, check out the composite quarterly forecast of the members of the National Association of Business Economics.

The economists polled in the survey work for companies in every manufacturing and business category, so their composite forecasts aren't biased toward one industry or another.

The latest survey refutes the gloom and doom predictions of some Wall Street analysts that we're heading for recession or are on the brink of a financial meltdown.

Fully 44 percent of top business economists now forecast a slow but steady economic expansion -- at a rate of one percent or higher -- for the next two quarters. Another 45 percent look for positive growth, but at a rate below one percent. Just ten percent expect negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth during the period -- the technical definition of a recession.

So 90 percent of the top business economists agree: We're NOT headed for recession.

That's encouraging for anyone looking to buy, sell or broker real estate in the coming months because negative national economic growth would put a damper on any housing recovery. If the economists' crystal ball is accurate - that's just not going to happen.

In other economic news, mortgage rates dropped again last week -- to an average 6.26 percent for 30-year fixed-rate loans, down from 6.4 percent the prior week and 6.7 percent a year ago, according to Freddie Mac. Fifteen year rates dropped to an average 5.71 percent from 5.9 percent.

New housing starts took a big, splashy jump -- up by 9.1 percent last month, according to the US Census bureau -- but it was probably a statistical fluke caused by a deadline for building code changes in the New York area. Apparently builders and developers rushed to start construction to beat the deadline, pushing up the total number of starts in the process.

Scattered reports of price rebounds in previously negative areas continue to come in: Most notably this week, the District of Columbia, which had seen price declines following the peak of the boom, saw June median condominium prices increase by 3.6 percent, and single family detached house prices by 2.1 percent over previous year levels, according to regional MLS data.

As we've said before here at Realty Times: The real estate recovery will manifest itself gradually -- market by market, rather than through national statistics. You just need to have your eyes open for the improvements, modest as they may be in the early stages.

Published: July 24, 2008

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.