With all the wild swings of the stock market and worries about recession, you might have missed some of the mildly encouraging developments on interest rates, capital availability for loans, and the direction of the economy overall.

Tops on the list: Mortgage rates last week took a quarter-point drop, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Rates were down to an average 6.28 percent for 30 year fixed rate loans and 6.05 percent for 15 year. The quarter point decline came on the heels of an unusual half point increase the week before that had been tied to the wild gyrations on Wall Street.

Now it's true that six and a quarter percent for 30 year mortgages is still higher than rates were several weeks back. But in a volatile market environment like we're in, you've got to welcome ANY drop in the cost of money.

Another economic sign that got crowded out of the news by all the stock market craziness: The Conference Board's bellwether Index of Leading Indicators -- which points to the direction of the economy immediately ahead -- just took a jump UPWARD for the first time in five months! The index examines ten key metrics related to future economic growth or decline, and in the last month six out of ten were POSITIVE .

Most economists continue to forecast a recession, but the leading indicators index seems to suggest something slightly different: Slow, slogging, minimal economic growth in the months ahead. That's not great, but it doesn't fit the classical definition of a recession, which is two straight quarters of negative growth.

Add in the recent sharp declines in the cost of gasoline and heating oil, and who knows? Maybe the national economic outlook is slightly less grim than we're expecting. Maybe we're all being too pessimistic.

Also in the works that you ought to know about: A new economic stimulus package from Congress aimed at increasing employment and pumping billions of additional dollars into key segments of the economy.

On that score, one of the items already included in some versions of that stimulus package: Larger, non-repayable federal tax credits for purchasers of homes.

This time around, the credit -- which could go as high as $10,000 to $12,000 per buyer if some housing industry lobbyists get their way - will be open to all purchasers of homes in the coming year, not just first-time buyers.

Published: October 28, 2008

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.