If you were listening to the real estate "rose-colored glasses" crowd, in 2006 you would have heard, "It's not a slowdown and there is NO bubble. The San Diego market is just going back to 'normal.' It's an excellent time to buy with out the market frenzy of multiple offers & buyers paying over the asking prices."

In 2007 you would have heard, "It's a normal correction to a buyer's market. Many great San Diego home buys, compared to the past year or two, are available if you act fast."

In 2008 (early August '08) the headline in the San Diego Buying Guide read: "Buyers are out in record numbers." Question: Record numbers compared to what time frame? Perhaps a more appropriate headline would have been: "San Diego buyer's activity increasing because of demand for foreclosure & short sale properties at 40 to 50% below their 2005 highs."

Therefore, in my humble opinion, the #1 key for buying a home in San Diego today, is waiting patiently for the market to tell that it has bottomed. I'm not talking about a one or two month blip here, or the Industry talking heads saying to act fast, but real, documented facts of a bottoming process occurring.

Sure, you might lose some of the upside, but you would be able to sleep at night. Buying simply because property looks cheap as opposed to last week, last month or the last year, is the majority thinking. With that reasoning, you would be have been buying all the way down in 2006, 2007 & 2008.

I would venture to say the vast majority of San Diego home buyers in the first quarter of this year have seen their 'great buys' suddenly not looking so great. Not considering closing cost, I'd guess the majority who purchased property in the last quarter of 2007 or first quarter of 2008 who had to sell today, would suffer a significant loss. As just one example, the July '08 condo average re-sales for the San Diego Zip code 92115 showed a value drop of over 50% vs. July 2007.

With three decades of real estate sales transactions, I always have my own opinions on which way the local real estate market is heading and freely express them in my blog.

When questioned by potential buyers, I let them know that the only thing I can guarantee is to make an effort to use all my experience to get them the best possible price for the existing market conditions. Where that price or value will be 3 to 6 months, or a year or two down the line, is anybody's guess. There are no guarantees in life and risk is inherent in all financial decisions.

Published: November 4, 2008

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Bob Schwartz is a Certified Residential Specialist, San Diego real estate broker & co-owner of an Internet search engine optimization firm, specializing in domain name registration and Internet domain website hosting. Bob received his BBA majoring in real estate & computer programming. Bob is an expert witness for major San Diego law firms, has served on the Consumer Affairs Community of the San Diego Association of Realtors, is past president of a local HOA and co-owner of a condominium management Co., and directs a multi-state high traffic network of legal directory sites. Visit Bob's San Diego real estate blog.