Here's a key question about the current market: Do you look at home prices to figure out where we are in the real estate recovery cycle, or do you focus on sales?

In an economy where an estimated 35 to 40 percent of all home transactions are foreclosures or short sales - distress situations in other words -- prices won't really guide you much beyond the conclusion that: We're still "correcting” the excesses of the boom years, still peeling back those wild and unsustainable hyperinflationary price run ups.

So it's no surprise that median prices are down, year to year, in a majority of large markets across the country.

Sales statistics, on the other hand, tell you how fast buyers are responding to those lower prices -- and greatly improved affordability.

Right now, in market after market, sales are picking up tempo -- especially in places where prices once spiraled out of control.

Third quarter sales of existing homes in the U.S. were up by 2.6 percent over second quarter 2008 levels, according to the National Association of Realtors' latest study.

That's not spectacular -- but let's face it: It's forward movement … and we're in a recession.

In the Western states, sales were up by 13.1 percent in the third quarter! In Florida, sales jumped by 5 percent from year earlier levels, while median selling prices were down by 20 percent.

In a majority of Florida's metropolitan markets, sales were up, year over year. For example, Orlando sales were 10 percent higher this October than the year before. Sales were up strongly as well in hard-hit Ft. Myers and much of the west coast of the state, and Fort Lauderdale, north of Miami.

Similar recent upturns in sales are occurring in many of the California markets where prices have plummeted during the past two years.

No question that a high proportion of these sales are distress situations.

But that's what the bottom of a real estate cycle looks like: Value-savvy buyers see the opportunities, move in and mop up the mess left over after the big party.

Happily, in this cycle, they're getting real help from the capital markets: Mortgage money is at historically-attractive low levels, and is readily available to anyone with a downpayment and reasonable credit.

Rates fell again last week to an average 6.16 percent for 30-year fixed loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and to 5.87 percent on average for 15 year loans.

If you can spot the opportunities -- and have the resources -- it's not a bad time to be a buyer.

Published: November 25, 2008

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.