Although the housing recovery continues to roll in most parts of the U.S., there were fresh signs last week about the bumps ahead.

Without question, the latest unemployment and new layoff numbers represent the biggest impediments in the way of a full, vigorous recovery in home sales and prices. Though some economists say the recession either ended in August, or will be over shortly, the latest jump in unemployment to 9.7 percent, the highest rate since 1983, is like a nagging pain that just won't go away soon.

On the other hand, most housing indicators remain positive. Spending on residential construction -- that's single and multifamily housing -- surged by seven percent last month, and is on track to post its first double-digit annualized rate of increase after 13 straight double-digit quarterly declines.

Housing prices in key local markets around the country also continued to show healthy increases.

According to the IAS 360 price index, they were up 7 percent in Broward County, Florida; 4 percent in Morris County, New Jersey, a New York City suburb; up 3.6 percent in the Virginia suburbs of Washington DC.; 7.4 percent in Broomfield, Colorado, and 1.3 percent in San Diego.

In the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, median house prices have gained 17 percent since February, according to metropolitan Realtors Association figures. Pending sales in July were 16 percent over the previous July, and 23 percent above July 2007.

Closed sales in the Twin Cities area were up 26 percent in July over the prior year.

Miami and South Dade, Florida, ground zero for the condo bust, saw sales up for the fifth straight month in July, and up 24 percent over year-earlier levels, according to MDA DataQuick. Even Miami prices in the latest month were stable, perhaps suggesting that one of the hardest hit local markets in the U.S. may finally be bottoming out.

Meanwhile, the mortgage market continues to beckon to home buyers with near record low rates. Applications for all new loans jumped by 17 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, including a nearly 10 percent increase in applications to purchases houses.

Rate quotes dropped to a flat five percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages, and just four and a half percent for 15 year loans.

And remember, these are average rate quotes. People with super credit or extra big downpayments are hearing quotes in the upper 4 percent range for 30 year and low four percent range for 15 year fixed.

It just doesn't get much better than that.

Published: September 15, 2009

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Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation. He served as a member of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Working Group on Computerized Loan Origination (CLO) systems, and is a member of the Editorial Board of the Fannie Mae Foundation's journal, Housing Policy Debate. He is the author of two books on mortgage finance and real estate.