Several major metropolitan markets are showing improvements in employment and both housing prices and permits. According the NAHB's First American Improving Markets Index, these twelve cities have seen improvement in all three areas for at least six months now.

"Despite the challenging conditions in the national economy and housing sector, there are areas throughout the country where we are seeing pockets of improvement," said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Reno, Nev. "Housing conditions are local, and do not always reflect the national picture. We created this new index to shine a light on those housing markets across the country that have stabilized and have begun to show signs of recovery."

Some of these growth markets are located in the South, where employment figures have been more promising thanks to energy rich zones.

Yet, housing overall is showing very mixed results. The National Association of Home Builders reports that estimates for growth in the GDP have been revised downward again, consumer confidence is receding, and a slight decline was seen in existing-home sales in July.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke commented on housing and the economy, noting that "tight credit conditions for buyers and builders, the impact of possible future housing price declines on macroeconomic growth and a vicious cycle of lower household net worth, [are] leading to more cautious lending to households, which in turn reduces housing demand, lowers prices and reduces household net worth."

Bernanke does expect, however, for housing to stabilize. For now, consumer confidence fell dramatically in August, down 31 percent. Why the sudden decline? The University of Michigan suggests this decline is directly related to lost confidence in the government's ability to enact policies to will counteract the threat of a renewed recession.

Consumers want to know that the jobs market is in recovery, something not yet on the horizon. Current paces are below what is needed for a stable employment rate. The most recent ADP Employment Report indicates that employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 91,000 from July to August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 80,000 in August.

"This month's jobs figures show modest job creation," said Gary C. Butler, Chief Executive Officer of ADP. "Small businesses continued to add the most jobs – more than half of the total of 91,000 – with positive growth for the 21st straight month, and an average of 71,000 jobs a month for the past year."

Taking into consideration these factors, expectations of a renewed recession have now risen to 35 percent.

Published: September 12, 2011

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Carla Hill, M.A., works on the Realty Times staff as Managing Editor for our online publication. She also is Producer for the real estate news channel, seen daily on RealtyTimes.com and on video newsletters nationwide.