Both the 10yr and the 5.5% 30MBS have broken through their 200 day moving averages and it looks like they are wanting to improve even further. What stands between us and further improvement can be employment news today and tomorrow. We have the unemployment number Thursday and the March jobs report on Friday. Given the data we have seen reported earlier this week from ADP, if unemployment claims go higher and the jobs report on Friday shows weakening, the bond market could see more space to improve.
While I don’t think we can see a massive move, weaker numbers can help sustain this rally and could very well lead us to the FED pausing rate increases and signal inflation is coming under control from previous rate hikes. We all know that these rate hikes take about a year to fully impact the markets, and the first hike was just a little more than a year ago, so we are just starting to see results. Hopefully, the FED will look at all the data and come to the conclusion that further rate hikes are not needed at this time, and wait to see how the next few months play out before making any moves.
Activity levels vary widely in the housing markets. It is important to look at your local markets for information because the national numbers, and those who interpret them, may not be doing your specific market justice with their outlooks. When you get deeper into the numbers, not all markets are acting the same. Inventory issues are driving much more of the market than interest rates. People want to buy, it’s just that the annual increases in listing we normally see in the first quarter of the year have yet to materialize. Maybe it’s because people aren’t ready to sell, or that they are waiting for other factors to come together. But I do know that while loan applications and contracts may be lower than anticipated, pre-approvals remain strong for those wanting to get out and buy!
So watch the news Thursday and Friday morning and follow the reaction by the mortgage markets and how they respond. PLEASE IGNORE the talking heads in the mainstream media and all the social media “gurus”, they spin news for CLICKS, not for CLIENTS!
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