You all know that I am very committed to business planning and scheduling. Knowing what you are trying to accomplish and then plotting the course and scheduling the work is a foundational part of what I share with my clients. It is so important that not only you have a plan and a schedule to execute, but being very specific in what you are trying to do and the results you are expecting are critical.
Too many people in our business don’t plan at all, they just prognosticate and then hope it all works out. As I have said before, “Hope is NOT a strategy for success!” Mortgage professionals have a very bad habit of just throwing numbers out there into the universe like, “I’m going to do ten deals a month”, or “I want to close $50M in loans.” But very rarely do they break it down as to HOW it is going to happen. Key questions you need to ask yourself are:
- 1. What is my conversion rate on the leads coming from all sources?
- 2. Who are the specific people who I expect to refer to me this year?
- 3. Based on the “Referral Triangle” concept, am I as balanced as I need to be, or do I still have targets to acquire still?
- 4. Am I basing my estimates on actual data or just projections?
- 5. How frequently will I review my numbers and adjust?
- 6. Given my market, how many purchase transactions can I expect in 2024?
- 7. Given my database and social media connections, how much will they need to grow?
- 8. IF we see a steady decline in interest rates, what are my additional expectations for both purchases and refinances based on my business plan?
It helps to have names and faces to go with your plan, even if they are just known potential targets or even if they are unknown future targets, having that listed helps keep you moving forward toward your ultimate targets of production and referral partners. Scheduling time to review and adjust will help keep you on track!
If you have questions or comments, please feel free to reach out: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and HAPPY NEW YEAR!
The share of U.S. homebuyers looking to move to a different metro area declined for the third straight month in November, dropping to 23.9%. That’s the lowest share in a year and a half, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. It’s down from 24.1% a year earlier–a tiny drop, but the first annual decline in Redfin’s records–and down from a record high of 26% over the summer.
Overall homebuying slowed in 2023 because it was the least affordable year on record and there was a severe supply shortage. There were 4% fewer Redfin.com users looking to move to a new metro in November than a year ago, compared with a 3% year-over-year drop for Redfin.com users searching within their home metro. The slightly bigger drop for house hunters looking to relocate explains why migrants are making up a smaller share of overall home searchers.
The portion of house hunters who are relocating to a new area is coming down for a few reasons. One, there’s less flexibility to work remotely as employers call workers back to the office. That means the flow of homebuyers moving from the Bay Area to Austin, TX or Boise, ID, for example, has slowed. Two, home prices generally increased more in popular migration destinations than they did in expensive coastal metros during the pandemic, making the case for moving a bit less compelling. For example, prices in Sacramento–the most popular destination this month–are up about 35% since before the pandemic, compared with an 8% increase in the Bay Area.
Still, the migration rate remains above pre-pandemic levels of around 19% as some Americans are still chasing affordability. All 10 of the most popular migration destinations have lower prices than the most common origin of buyers moving in.
Spokane, WA lands on list of popular destinations for the first time
Spokane has made it onto Redfin’s list of popular migration destinations for the first time on record, landing at number 10. Popularity is determined by net inflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to move into an area than leave.
The number-one origin of homebuyers moving to Spokane, the second most populous city in Washington, is Seattle, followed by Los Angeles and Portland, OR. Spokane has comparatively low housing costs: The typical Spokane home sells for $416,000, compared to $775,000 in Seattle.
|
Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Moving Into, by Net Inflow Net inflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to move into a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to leave |
||||
|
Metro* |
Net Inflow, Nov. 2023 |
Net Inflow, Nov. 2022 |
Top Origin |
Top Out-of-State Origin |
|
Sacramento, CA |
5,100 |
7,000 |
San Francisco, CA |
New York, NY |
|
Las Vegas, NV |
3,800 |
6,400 |
Los Angeles, CA |
Los Angeles, CA |
|
North Port-Sarasota, FL |
3,700 |
3,700 |
New York, NY |
New York, NY |
|
Cape Coral, FL |
3,700 |
4,000 |
Miami, FL |
Chicago, IL |
|
Salisbury, MD |
3,600 |
2,000 |
Washington, D.C. |
Washington, D.C. |
|
Myrtle Beach, SC |
3,600 |
2,800 |
Washington, D.C. |
Washington, D.C. |
|
Orlando, FL |
3,500 |
3,300 |
New York, NY |
New York, NY |
|
Portland, ME |
3,400 |
2,800 |
Boston, MA |
Boston, MA |
|
Nashville, TN |
3,000 |
2,800 |
Los Angeles, CA |
Los Angeles, CA |
|
Spokane, WA |
2,500 |
2,300 |
Seattle, WA |
Los Angeles, CA |
|
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in Sept. 2023-Nov. 2023 |
||||
Los Angeles tops list of metros homebuyers are leaving for first time
More homebuyers are leaving Los Angeles than any other metro area in the country. That marks the first time on record it has been the number-one place homebuyers are leaving and the first time in over two years the Bay Area has dropped out of the number-one spot. The Bay Area comes in second, followed by New York. That’s based on net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users are looking to leave a metro than move in.
Migration out of both Los Angeles and the Bay Area has slowed since the height of the pandemic, when remote workers were fleeing both California metros in favor of more affordable places. But Los Angeles has surpassed the Bay Area because the flow out of the Bay Area has steadily slowed, while the flow out of Los Angeles has picked back up in recent months.
|
Top 10 Metros Homebuyers Are Leaving, by Net Outflow Net outflow = Number of Redfin.com home searchers looking to leave a metro area, minus the number of searchers looking to move in |
||||
|
Metro* |
Net Outflow, Nov. 2023 |
Net Outflow, Nov. 2022 |
Top Destination |
Top Out-of-State Destination |
|
Los Angeles, CA |
26,100 |
30,300 |
Las Vegas, NV |
Las Vegas, NV |
|
San Francisco, CA |
25,400 |
32,000 |
Sacramento, CA |
Seattle, WA |
|
New York, NY |
24,900 |
20,700 |
Miami, FL |
Miami, FL |
|
Washington, D.C. |
13,300 |
16,100 |
Salisbury, MD |
Salisbury, MD |
|
Seattle, WA |
11,900 |
1,300 |
Spokane, WA |
Phoenix, AZ |
|
Chicago, IL |
7,600 |
7,100 |
Cape Coral, FL |
Cape Coral, FL |
|
Boston, MA |
5,000 |
6,100 |
Portland, ME |
Portland, ME |
|
Philadelphia, PA |
3,000 |
1,300 |
Salisbury, MD |
Salisbury, MD |
|
Detroit, MI |
2,100 |
3,400 |
Washington, D.C. |
Washington, D.C. |
|
Denver, CO |
2,000 |
3,200 |
Chicago, IL |
Chicago, IL |
|
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users searching to and from the region in Sept. 2023-Nov. 2023 |
||||
To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-migration-trends-November-2023
Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.61 percent.
“The rapid descent of mortgage rates over the last two months stabilized a bit this week, but rates continue to trend down,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Heading into the new year, the economy remains on firm ground with solid growth, a tight labor market, decelerating inflation, and a nascent rebound in the housing market.”
News Facts
- The 30-year FRM averaged 6.61 percent as of December 28, 2023, down from last week when it averaged 6.67 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.42 percent.
- The 15-year FRM averaged 5.93 percent, down from last week when it averaged 5.95 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.68 percent.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. For more information, view our Frequently Asked Questions.
Freddie Mac’s mission is to make home possible for families across the nation. We promote liquidity, stability, affordability and equity in the housing market throughout all economic cycles. Since 1970, we have helped tens of millions of families buy, rent or keep their home. Learn More: Website | Consumers | Twitter | LinkedIn | Facebook
Agent Resource
|
||||||
What's New
From buying and selling advice for consumers to money-making tips for Agents, our content, updated daily, has made Realty Times® a must-read, and see, for anyone involved in Real Estate.