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Are we there yet? No, not just yet!

For months now we have seen social media and the “experts” share their thoughts on why rates would be going down significantly. This has caused many in our industry to predict lower rates and talk about 5%, even 4% or lower rates to come. The issue with that is that while lower rates may be in the future, many have hung their hats on this and are now suffering the fact that mortgage rates have yet to make that move as they had expected. While rates are certainly lower than they were last fall, far too may people are thinking about rates that are still far below where we can actually deliver today, and this is causing some people to miss out on opportunities to have bought a home and locked in a PRICE, while maintaining the ability to refinance later if rates do go lower and lower their PAYMENT!

The real issue is, while people have been putting off buying a house until the rates go lower, they have watched the cost of the homes they want to purchase increase by thousands, or even tens of thousands of dollars! Even with a lower rate, it may still cause a higher monthly payment because people will be forced to borrow more money because they waited for a lower rate. Buy when you want to buy, not when rates are low. When rates go lower, you will see more competition for houses, which can lead to further higher prices, meaning you have to borrow even more money…

When you are ready to buy, buy. You have locked in your price and your payment. If rates go lower, you can always refinance. In fact, many companies are offering a low cost or no cost refinance for their existing customers so they can take advantage if rates go lower. If rates don’t go lower, you have your home at a good price and with payments you are already comfortable with; and if rates go higher, you have secured your home and your payments!

The markets are digesting a less than favorable CPI report and we are facing initial jobless/continuing claims and the PPI numbers this morning, could be a market moving event so be watching. Questions or comments: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Posted On Monday, 18 March 2024 00:00 Written by
Posted On Thursday, 14 March 2024 13:14
Posted On Thursday, 14 March 2024 13:08
Posted On Thursday, 14 March 2024 11:30

New listings rose 13% from a year earlier, their biggest increase in nearly three years, but home prices and mortgage rates remain elevated

The median U.S. monthly housing payment was $2,686 during the four weeks ending March 10, just $30 shy of last October’s all-time high, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s due to a combination of still-high mortgage rates and rising prices.

While mortgage rates came down slightly this past week after increasing for four straight weeks, they’re still near 7%, and sale prices are up 5% year over year nationwide. On a local level, prices increased in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros, the first time that has happened since July 2022.

High housing costs are still pricing out some would-be homebuyers, with pending sales down 6% from a year earlier. But more house hunters are wading into the market; mortgage-purchase applications rose for the second week in a row. That’s partly because supply is steadily improving, giving buyers who can afford elevated prices and rates more homes to choose from. New listings are up 13%, the biggest annual increase in nearly three years, and the total number of homes for sale is up 3%, the biggest increase in nine months.

“Mortgage rates are likely to stay high a little longer than expected, with the latest inflation report essentially eliminating any chance of the Fed cutting interest rates before June,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Buyers who can afford to may want to get serious about their home search now, as housing costs are unlikely to fall anytime soon. The uptick in listings should be another motivator for buyers: There’s more to choose from, and improving inventory may bring out more competition from other buyers as we get further into spring. Some buyers have already gotten the memo, with mortgage applications finally increasing after weeks of declines.”

For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit our “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity

 

Value (if applicable)

Recent change

Year-over-year change

Source

Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

6.94% (March 13)

Down from 6.97% a week earlier

Up from 6.75%

Mortgage News Daily

Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

6.88% (week ending March 7)

Down from 6.94% a week earlier; first decline after 4 weeks of increases

Up from 6.73%

Freddie Mac

Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)

 

Up 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending March 8); 2nd straight week of increases

Down 11%

Mortgage Bankers Association

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)

 

Up 5% from a month earlier (as of week ending March 10)

Down 10%

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents

Google searches for “home for sale”

 

Down 4% from a month earlier (as of March 9)

Down 19%

Google Trends

Touring activity

 

Up 29% from the start of the year (as of March 10)

At this time last year, it was up 20% from the start of 2023

ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending March 10, 2024

Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.

 

Four weeks ending March 10, 2024

Year-over-year change

Notes

Median sale price

$371,750

5.1%

 

Median asking price

$399,850

4.9%

 

Median monthly mortgage payment

$2,686 at a 6.88% mortgage rate

7.3%

Just $30 shy of all-time high set in October 2023

Pending sales

79,779

-5.8%

 

New listings

85,122

13%

Biggest increase since June 2021

Active listings

780,779

2.9%

Biggest increase since May 2023

Months of supply

3.5 months

+0.4 pts.

4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions

Share of homes off market in two weeks

40.2%

Up from 38%

 

Median days on market

45

-2 days

 

Share of homes sold above list price

25.1%

Up from 24%

 

Share of homes with a price drop

5.6%

+1.5 pts.

 

Average sale-to-list price ratio

98.6%

+0.3 pts.

 

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending March 10, 2024

Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.

 

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases

Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases

Notes

Median sale price

San Jose, CA (16.3%)

Newark, NJ (15.1%)

Boston (14.9%)

West Palm Beach, FL (14.8%)

Fort Lauderdale, FL (13.8%)

n/a

Increased in all metros

Pending sales

Milwaukee (11.5%)

San Francisco (9%)

Cincinnati (8%)

Minneapolis (7.5%)

San Jose, CA (5.8%)

San Antonio, TX (-25.8%)

New York (-15%)

Atlanta (-14.8%)

Houston (-13.9%)

New Brunswick, NJ (-13.8%)

Increased in 12 metros

New listings

San Jose, CA (30.4%)

Phoenix (29.9%)

Las Vegas (27.4%)

Minneapolis (26%)

Jacksonville, FL (24.9%)

New York (-18.4%)

Atlanta (-5.8%)

Newark, NJ (-3.9%)

Chicago (-0.7%)

Virginia Beach, VA (-0.4%)

Philadelphia (-0.2%)

Declined in 6 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-surge

Posted On Thursday, 14 March 2024 06:43 Written by
Posted On Wednesday, 13 March 2024 12:05
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