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Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index jumped as prices fell for the sixth-straight week and mortgage rates declined for the third week in a row. But a lack of new listings is holding back sales.

House hunters are wading into the market as mortgage rates and home prices continue to decline, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Mortgage-purchase applications increased for the fourth week in a row and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a seasonally adjusted measure of requests to tour homes, make an offer and/or talk to a Redfin agent about a home search—jumped to its highest level since last May during the week ending March 26.

“My phone is ringing, and it’s usually first-time buyers or investors,” said San Francisco Redfin agent Ali Mafi. “First-time buyers are interested in looking at homes because prices have come down, though they’re still concerned about high mortgage rates. Investors who can pay in cash are honing in on luxury San Francisco condos because prices on those have dropped even more significantly than the overall market.”

The uptick in early-stage demand has yet to translate into more home sales. Pending sales dropped 19% year over year nationwide in the four weeks ending March 26, the biggest decline in about two months. Demand for homes hasn’t yet translated into an improvement in sales mainly because would-be buyers are limited by lack of supply.

New listings of homes for sale declined 22%, one of the biggest drops since the start of the pandemic; homeowners are reluctant to sell because they don’t want to give up a low mortgage rate. The lack of new listings is causing a growing share of homes to fly off the market quickly: Nearly half of homes are selling within two weeks, the largest share since June.

Home prices drop in over half of the country, but rise in some areas

While the scarcity of new listings is holding back sales nearly everywhere in the U.S., prices are dropping fast in some parts of the country and increasing in others.

Home prices dropped in more than half (28) of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, with the biggest drop in Austin, TX (-15.2% YoY). Next come four northern California metros: San Jose, CA (-12.9%), San Francisco (-11.7%), Sacramento, CA (-11.4%), and Oakland, CA (-10.8%). Those are the biggest annual declines since at least 2015 for Austin and Sacramento.

On the flip side, sale prices increased most in Milwaukee, where they rose 14.1% year over year. Next come Fort Lauderdale, FL (8.5% YoY), Virginia Beach, VA (6.9%), West Palm Beach, FL (6.7%) and Providence, RI (6.4%).

On a national level, the median U.S. home-sale price fell 1.8% year over year to $360,500, marking the sixth straight week of declines after more than a decade of increases.

“Prices are still rising quickly in some places while they are down by double digits in big tech hubs, so it’s important for prospective buyers to work with an expert local agent,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “One thing that’s true almost everywhere: It’s difficult to find a desirable, well-priced home for sale, so offer and negotiation strategies differ depending on where you’re looking.”

Leading indicators of homebuying activity:

  • For the week ending March 30, average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped to 6.32%, the third straight week of declines. The daily average was 6.59% on March 30.
  • Mortgage-purchase applications during the week ending March 24 increased 2% from a week earlier, seasonally adjusted, marking the fourth straight week of increases. Purchase applications were up 19% from a month earlier, but down 35% from a year earlier.
  • The seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index jumped to its highest level since September during the week ending March 26. It was up 6% from a week earlier, but down 24% from a year earlier.
  • Google searches for “homes for sale” were up about 44% from the trough they hit in December during the week ending March 25, but down about 17% from a year earlier.
  • Touring activity as of March 26 was up about 20% from the start of the year, compared with a 24% increase at the same time last year, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.

Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas:

Unless otherwise noted, this data covers the four-week period ending March 26. Redfin’s weekly housing market data goes back through 2015.

  • The median home sale price was $360,500, down 1.8% from a year earlier. That’s the sixth week in a row of prices declining annually after more than a decade of increases. The latter is according to Redfin’s monthly dataset, which goes back through 2012.
  • The median asking price of newly listed homes was $392,225, up 1.4% year over year.
  • The monthly mortgage payment on the median-asking-price home was $2,518 at a 6.32% mortgage rate, the current weekly average. Monthly mortgage payments are down slightly from the peak they reached three weeks ago, but up 16% ($354) from a year ago.
  • Pending home sales were down 19.2% year over year, the biggest decline in nearly two months.
  • Pending home sales fell in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros. They fell most in Las Vegas (-52.6% YoY), Sacramento (-48.6%), San Jose (-46.4%), Oakland (-45.4%) and Seattle (-45.2%).
  • New listings of homes for sale fell 21.7% year over year. New listings have been dropping by about 21% to 22% on a year-over-year basis for the last month.
  • New listings declined in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros, with the biggest declines in Sacramento (-48.8% YoY), Oakland (-44.3%), San Francisco (-41.8%), Riverside, CA (-39.7%) and San Diego, CA (-37.9%). New listings declined least in the South: Nashville, TN (-1.1% YoY) saw the smallest drop, followed by Dallas (-3.3%), Fort Worth, TX (-3.4%), Austin (-4.8%) and Houston (-9.3%).
  • Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) were up 13.9% from a year earlier, the smallest increase in more than four months.
  • Months of supply—a measure of the balance between supply and demand, calculated by the number of months it would take for the current inventory to sell at the current sales pace—was 2.8 months, down from 3.5 months a month earlier and up from 1.9 months a year earlier.
  • 47% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, the highest level since June, but down from 53% a year earlier.
  • Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 41 days. That’s up from 24 days a year earlier and the record low of 18 days set in May.
  • 26% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share in more than three months but down from 49% a year earlier.
  • On average, 4.9% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, up from 2.2% a year earlier.
  • The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their final asking prices, was 98.6%, the highest level in four months but down from 101.7% a year earlier.

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-homebuying-demand-increases

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Despite slim pickings and affordability challenges, buyers got a jump on spring shopping in March, but rising rates could cause a late-spring frost

Spring is officially here, and like green shoots emerging from the bleak winter, new data suggests that more buyers are back in the market, although more subdued compared to a year ago. According to the Realtor.com® Monthly Housing Trends Report released today, the recent six-month surge in active listings lost momentum, moderating to 59.9% year-over-year, and time on market shrank to 54 days, from January’s high of 74 days, as buyers eased back into the market in March, but higher mortgage rates could freeze them back out. 

“Signs show that buyers are active in the spring housing market, even if they aren’t as numerous as they were during the pandemic. Amid fewer new choices on the market and still rising home prices, home shoppers have shown that they are very rate sensitive, only jumping back in the market when rates dip, and so what happens with rates this spring will likely play a strong role in determining whether the housing market bumps along or picks up speed this year,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Realtor.com®. “With so much built up equity, home sellers are still faring well, but many are sitting on the sidelines. The usual seasonal pick-up in buyer demand appears to be underway, one of several factors that make spring the Best Time to Sell. With an uncertain market ahead, it may be even more important for potential sellers to aim for this year’s seasonal sweet spot.”

Now may be the best time to sell, and homeowners need to put their best foot forward

If homeowners are planning to sell in 2023, now is the time to get ready. Realtor.com®’s Best Time to Sell analysis found that nationally, the week of April 16-22, 2023 will bring sellers the best combination of market conditions this year, including higher home prices, fewer other homes for sale, a faster sale, and stronger demand. 

"Well-priced, move-in ready homes with curb appeal in desirable areas are still receiving multiple offers and selling for over the asking price in many parts of the country," said Realtor.com®'s Executive News Editor Clare Trapasso. "So this spring, it's especially important for sellers to make their homes as attractive as possible to appeal to as many buyers as possible. They should make any necessary repairs, spruce up the landscaping, and invest in staging and professional photographs. Homes that are priced too high, are in need of major repairs, or aren't presented professionally are often sitting on the market for longer and sometimes selling for under the initial asking price."

 

March 2023 Housing Metrics – National

Metric

Change over March 2022

Change over March 2019

Median listing price

+6.3% (to $424,000)

+38.8%

Active listings

+59.9%

-49.5%

New listings

-20.1%

-26.9%

Median days on market

+18 days (to 54 days)

-18 days

Share of active listings with price reductions

+6.8 percentage points 

(to 12.6%)

-2.3 percentage points

Lack of new homes coming on to the market a drag on home sales

The U.S. inventory of active listings continued to climb in March over last year’s lows, but the rate of growth cooled slightly from the brisk pace seen the previous two months. With new listings remaining scarce in March, the rise in the number of homes for sale is a reflection of more time spent on the market compared to last year rather than an influx of new sellers. A lack of new homes to the market continues to be a drag on home sales; attitudes toward housing worsened in February, especially among potential sellers, which likely signals ongoing weakness in the number of new homes for sale this year. Higher interest rates continue to create affordability challenges for buyers, and fewer homes went under contract compared to last year. 

  • The U.S. supply of active listings for sale rose 59.9% compared to this time last year, but it is still 49.6% below pre-pandemic 2017 - 2019 levels, on average. There were 211,000 more homes available to buy in March compared to one year ago.
  • Newly-listed homes for sale continued to fall in March (-20.1%) compared to this time last year. This is a higher rate of decline than last month’s 15.9% decrease and 29.7% below pre-pandemic 2017 - 2019 levels. Pending listings, or homes under contract with a buyer, declined year-over-year (-24.5%). 
  • The number of homes for sale across the 50 largest metros was up 74.4% compared to a year ago. The South saw the highest growth in active listings (+127.4%). 
  • Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, 47 markets saw active inventory increase compared to last March, with the most growth in Austin (+312.2%), Raleigh (+273.7%), and Nashville (+253.3%). Only three markets had inventory declines on a year-over-year basis, including Milwaukee (-17.2%), Hartford (-17.0%), and New York (-0.9%).

Home prices continue to rise but could decline compared to last year as early as summer

In March, national median list prices continued to rise year-over-year, but the rate at which prices are rising slowed to the lowest level since June 2020, in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. At this rate of slowing, list prices could decline relative to last year as early as this summer, following the recent national median sale price decline, which fell annually for the first time in 10 years last month. The share of homes with price reductions is up significantly from last year, but dipped below 2017–2019 pre-pandemic levels in February and continued to decline in March, indicating that the smaller number of homeowners who are putting their homes up for sale appear to be readjusting their home price expectations to the realities of today’s market. 

  • The national median listing price was $424,000 in March, up from $415,000 in February. Annual list price growth continued to slow to 6.3% over last year, the lowest rate of growth since June 2020, in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. 
  • Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, the biggest annual listing price gains continue to be in the Midwest, up 14.1%, on average from last year. The metros with the biggest asking price increases were Memphis, Tenn. (+40.3%), Milwaukee (+26.3%), and Kansas City, Mo.  (+17.7%); however, in these metros the mix of inventory also changed and more larger, expensive homes are for sale today.
  • In March, 12.6% of active listings had their price reduced, up from 5.8% a year ago.
  • Nine out of the largest 50 markets saw their median list price decline in March. Large southern metros (+9.1 percentage points) continued to see the largest increase in the share of listings with price reductions, and the greatest year-over-year declines in the median list price were seen in Austin, Texas (-8.4% year-over-year), Las Vegas (-6.7%), and New Orleans (-5.1%). 

Homes are taking longer to sell, but not as long as pre-pandemic levels

A typical home spent more time on market compared to last year, although after rising steadily from summer 2022, the usual seasonal pickup in the sales pace shrank the gap and homes sold faster in March than in January and February, suggesting that buyers are active in the market, even if they are not as numerous as this time last year. Even though the typical home listing was on the market for more than two weeks longer than this time last year, homes are still selling just over two weeks faster on average than before the pandemic boom. 

  • In March, the typical home spent 54 days on market, 18 days longer than this time last year, but still 15 days faster than the pre-pandemic March 2017-2019 average. 
  • Across the 50 largest U.S. metros, time on market was lower in March relative to the national pace, 46 days on average, and was 16 days slower than March 2022. 
  • Time on market increased compared to last year in all 50 metros with the greatest increases in Raleigh, N.C. (+42 days), Kansas City, Mo. (+37 days), and Austin, Texas (+37 days). 

March 2023 Housing Metrics – 50 Largest U.S. Metro Areas 

Metro Area

Median Listing Price

Median Listing Price YoY

Median Listing Price per Sq. Ft. YoY

Active Listing Count YoY

New Listing Count YoY

Median Days on Market

Median Days on Market Y-Y (Days)

Price Reduced Share

Price Reduced Share Y-Y (Percentage Points)

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.

$410,000

2.5%

0.9%

70.0%

-16.6%

47

13

13.0%

7.3 pp

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas

$550,000

-8.4%

-10.7%

312.2%

1.1%

52

37

26.5%

21.6 pp

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.

$348,000

7.5%

4.0%

14.1%

-27.1%

44

12

10.2%

2.9 pp

Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.

$279,000

5.2%

5.7%

63.3%

-15.7%

54

20

13.1%

6.7 pp

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.

$824,000

9.9%

-0.8%

24.0%

-39.6%

30

12

8.4%

4.0 pp

Buffalo-Cheektowaga, N.Y.

$246,000

11.9%

8.8%

22.4%

-10.8%

46

3

5.6%

2.6 pp

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.

$401,000

0.2%

1.7%

110.0%

-2.6%

43

24

12.3%

6.8 pp

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.

$352,000

5.9%

-4.4%

1.6%

-27.6%

42

6

9.1%

3.2 pp

Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.

$367,000

15.0%

4.2%

19.3%

-24.2%

43

8

8.1%

3.8 pp

Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio

$211,000

11.0%

8.4%

18.7%

-21.0%

47

5

9.5%

3.4 pp

Columbus, Ohio

$375,000

12.8%

5.2%

26.9%

-19.6%

32

16

12.0%

6.8 pp

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas

$442,000

4.0%

0.0%

172.0%

3.2%

46

22

15.5%

11.5 pp

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.

$655,000

-1.2%

0.2%

86.3%

-17.1%

28

22

12.8%

9.3 pp

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.

$236,000

3.8%

0.8%

24.5%

-25.8%

49

22

12.1%

4.0 pp

Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.

$403,000

15.1%

5.3%

-17.0%

-35.0%

36

10

4.5%

0.6 pp

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas

$361,000

-3.3%

-1.4%

63.2%

-9.8%

49

11

13.8%

6.4 pp

Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.

$311,000

4.8%

4.9%

71.1%

-7.6%

49

15

13.1%

6.5 pp

Jacksonville, Fla.

$400,000

0.5%

1.9%

176.6%

1.7%

54

18

17.0%

12.2 pp

Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.

$455,000

17.7%

11.1%

68.0%

-26.4%

82

37

8.3%

4.7 pp

Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.

$450,000

-6.7%

-3.7%

86.1%

-30.7%

55

30

20.1%

12.3 pp

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.

$1,000,000

2.5%

2.6%

33.2%

-35.7%

47

17

9.3%

5.3 pp

Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.

$305,000

5.2%

1.0%

36.2%

-27.1%

37

14

13.0%

6.7 pp

Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.

$319,000

40.3%

17.4%

117.4%

-7.8%

54

18

14.5%

8.2 pp

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.

$599,000

10.1%

2.9%

87.8%

-15.7%

63

20

14.2%

9.7 pp

Milwaukee-Waukesha, Wis.

$366,000

26.3%

10.8%

-17.2%

-18.8%

33

4

7.2%

1.8 pp

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.

$451,000

8.8%

16.1%

15.3%

-27.7%

40

11

7.1%

3.5 pp

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn.

$527,000

5.5%

-0.1%

253.3%

7.4%

36

25

18.1%

12.9 pp

New Orleans-Metairie, La.

$330,000

-5.1%

-2.9%

109.0%

1.4%

59

15

18.4%

8.2 pp

New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.

$699,000

7.6%

6.4%

-0.9%

-29.2%

61

15

7.3%

1.9 pp

Oklahoma City, Okla.

$350,000

3.3%

4.6%

129.1%

-19.7%

51

15

12.0%

6.3 pp

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.

$441,000

6.9%

4.1%

136.4%

-14.6%

54

23

13.7%

8.8 pp

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.

$327,000

5.6%

2.9%

15.0%

-25.3%

53

15

10.9%

3.7 pp

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.

$499,000

-0.1%

-3.3%

184.6%

-22.1%

51

23

24.4%

18.2 pp

Pittsburgh, Pa.

$215,000

-2.3%

-2.1%

27.0%

-10.9%

65

8

12.1%

4.2 pp

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.

$615,000

7.0%

-1.8%

57.9%

-32.1%

45

18

10.3%

0.9 pp

Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.

$513,000

16.0%

6.9%

17.4%

-40.0%

42

11

5.8%

2.1 pp

Raleigh-Cary, N.C.

$450,000

0.0%

-3.1%

273.7%

3.4%

53

42

12.3%

9.3 pp

Richmond, Va.

$402,000

12.1%

6.8%

51.4%

-19.8%

44

11

7.7%

5.1 pp

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.

$559,000

-2.4%

1.2%

71.1%

-33.9%

56

26

12.4%

7.4 pp

Rochester, N.Y.

$257,000

17.1%

10.1%

8.2%

-25.1%

26

15

6.8%

2.0 pp

Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, Calif.

$627,000

-0.4%

-4.8%

14.5%

-44.5%

43

19

9.9%

3.4 pp

San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas

$347,000

0.3%

-0.3%

161.1%

6.4%

57

20

17.4%

12.4 pp

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.

$950,000

7.7%

3.2%

24.6%

-35.9%

37

12

9.6%

5.9 pp

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.

$1,080,000

3.1%

-2.5%

5.2%

-39.0%

34

12

9.0%

4.8 pp

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.

$1,495,000

6.8%

0.2%

10.9%

-39.7%

28

13

7.2%

4.4 pp

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.

$789,000

5.2%

3.0%

66.3%

-27.8%

33

15

9.4%

6.8 pp

St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.*

$237,000

N/A*

N/A*

N/A*

N/A*

55

8

9.8%

3.4 pp

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.

$411,000

2.8%

1.4%

187.6%

-6.6%

52

22

18.9%

13.8 pp

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.

$373,000

14.2%

6.8%

23.3%

-23.7%

39

17

11.0%

6.0 pp

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va.

$599,000

10.0%

0.5%

14.2%

-27.0%

36

9

7.7%

2.3 pp

*Some St. Louis listing metrics have been excluded while data is under review.

Methodology

Realtor.com® housing data as of March 2023. Listings include the active inventory of existing single-family homes and condos/townhomes/rowhomes/co-ops for the given level of geography on Realtor.com; new construction is excluded unless listed via an MLS that provides listing data to Realtor.com. Realtor.com® data history goes back to July 2016. 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). 

Posted On Wednesday, 29 March 2023 06:47 Written by
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Posted On Tuesday, 28 March 2023 21:04 Written by

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