Prices are falling from a year ago in four Texas metros—Austin, San Antonio, Houston and Fort Worth—and in Portland, OR. Redfin predicts price declines will become more widespread in the new year.
Homebuying is becoming more affordable as mortgage rates continue declining—the median U.S. housing payment was $2,561 during the four weeks ending December 3, down $177 from the record high they hit in October. This according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s spurring action from sidelined homebuyers and sellers.
Mortgage-purchase applications are up 15% from the 28-year low they dropped to at the start of November. New listings are up 7% year over year, the biggest increase since August 2021, and the number of homeowners contacting Redfin for help selling their home is up by double digits from a year ago.
Mortgage rates are coming down because economic events are tilting in the housing market’s favor. This week, a softer-than-expected report on job openings is another piece of evidence on a growing pile that the Fed may cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. The daily average 30-year fixed rate was 7.04% on December 6, down from 8% six weeks earlier and its lowest level since the start of August.
“With the hope of a few more homes coming on the market, buyers who can afford 7% mortgage rates or pay in cash have some bargaining power,” said Phoenix Redfin Premier Van Welborn. “People are taking their time looking at multiple homes, and they’re able to back out if the inspection uncovers problems because they can wait for something better to come on the market. But there isn’t much wiggle room on price: I’m advising buyers to be reasonable with their offers because home values are still relatively high and sellers don’t want to let go of their home for less than what they feel it’s worth.”
Home prices are falling from a year ago in five of the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Redfin predicts prices will start declining in more metros in 2024, though they still have room to grow in inexpensive parts of the country.
Leading indicators
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Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
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|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
|
|
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
7.04% (Dec. 6) |
Down from 7.22% a week earlier; lowest level since beginning of August |
Up from 6.33% |
Mortgage News Daily |
|
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
7.22% (week ending Nov. 30) |
Down from two-decade high of 7.79% six weeks earlier |
Up from 6.49% |
Freddie Mac |
|
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
Unchanged from a week earlier (as of week ending Dec. 1) |
Down 17% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
|
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
Up 3% from a month earlier (as of the week ending Dec. 3) |
Down 7% |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
|
|
Google searches for “home for sale” |
Down 4% from a month earlier (as of Dec. 2) |
Down 4% |
Google Trends |
|
|
Touring activity |
Down 30% from the start of the year (as of Dec.3) |
At this time last year, it was down 37% from the start of 2022 |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
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Key housing-market data
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U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending December 3, 2023 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
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|
Four weeks ending December 3, 2023 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
$364,166 |
4.1% |
Prices are up partly because rapidly rising mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year |
|
Median asking price |
$371,163 |
6.7% |
Biggest increase since Sept. 2022 |
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,561 at a 7.22% mortgage rate |
15% |
Down $177 from all-time high set during the four weeks ending Oct. 22. Lowest level since August. |
|
Pending sales |
59,434 |
-7.4% |
|
|
New listings |
61,465 |
7.1% |
Biggest uptick since August 2021. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last year. |
|
Active listings |
853,529 |
-6.2% |
Smallest decline since June |
|
Months of supply |
4.1 months |
+0.1 pt. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions |
|
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
31.4% |
Up from 28% |
|
|
Median days on market |
35 |
-3 days |
|
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
26.7% |
Up from 25% |
|
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
5.5% |
+0.3 pts. |
|
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
98.7% |
+0.4 pts. |
|
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending December 3, 2023 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
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Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
Anaheim, CA (18.6%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (12%) Newark, NJ (11.4%) New Brunswick, NJ (10.5%) San Diego, CA (10.3%) |
Austin, TX (-9.6%) San Antonio, TX (-2.1%) Houston (-0.9%) Portland, OR (-0.8%) Fort Worth, TX (-0.5%) |
Declined in 5 metros |
|
Pending sales |
San Jose, CA (7.3%) Austin, TX (2.1%) Milwaukee (1%) Fort Worth, TX (0.6%) Los Angeles (0.4%) |
Cleveland, OH (-21.9%) Cincinnati, OH (-21.8%) New York (-17.9%) Providence, RI (-17.4%) Boston (-16.1%) |
Increased in 5 metros |
|
New listings |
Orlando, FL (27.6%) Phoenix (20.7%) West Palm Beach, FL (16.2%) Las Vegas (14.8%) Miami (14.7%) |
Cleveland, OH (-17.8%) Atlanta (-16.1%) San Francisco (-15%) Oakland, CA (-7.2%) Boston (-7.1%) |
Declined in 12 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-decline-listings-increase
Agent Resource
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