The FED had it’s meeting this week and made some observations and projections that they supported with their “FACTS”. While Jerome Powell has tried to bury his whole “tapering” comments with a simple shrug of the shoulders and the comment that we won’t use the word transitory any longer, it doesn’t absolve the facts that keep getting shared are just as big a fantasy going forward. So how about we just get real here for the next few minutes.
With all the data the FED looks at, it’s hard not to see they almost always ignore reality. CPI & PPI are significantly flawed measurements because one doesn’t take a real measure of costs, especially food, energy, and housing. When they do look at those numbers, the measurements they use so far behind the reality, it almost makes it a moot point. The other makes assumptions as to how much of the increase in costs will manufactures past along to the consumer.
So, when the FED inflation data says one thing, we as consumers know that things are far worse. You can’t just strip out food and energy and say here it is! You can think that significantly higher wages aren’t going to just not get calculated into the price to the street. You can make mandates, raise taxes, reduce supply, and NOT expect that some how it all works out fine. So, let’s get real. The FED will reduce its bond and treasury purchases by 30B a month, which means by March they should be done completely. That is when they can start raising rates. By their own projections, the consensus is that through 2022 and 2023 we should see 1.5% rise in the FED Funds rate. How it gets spaced out and in what increments will depend on what they see in their tea leaves. While I am never confident in the FEDs ability to forecast, I do think it will happen sooner rather than later. That fact that it will start to happen sooner is good news because it needs to happen, and I believe the long-term securities will benefit from a serious move to tackle inflation.
In the mortgage industry inflation is the devil. The sooner there is a serious attempt to deal with it, the quicker the market will get to the new “normal” and everyone can adjust accordingly! Elimination of FED purchases and higher FED Funds rates will be a good thing in the long run. For the short term, if you like it, lock it!
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