More than one-quarter (25.8%) of homebuyers are looking to move to a different part of the country, a record-high share and up from 23.7% a year ago. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. The portion of homebuyers looking to relocate has steadily risen since the pandemic began; the share stood at roughly 18% in 2018 and 2019.

While a record share of homebuyers are looking to relocate, the number is lower than it was a year ago as the frequency of homes changing hands drops to its lowest level in at least a decade amid the cool housing market. There are 7% fewer Redfin.com users looking to move away from their home metro than a year ago. That’s compared with a 17% decline for Redfin.com homebuyers staying in their hometown.

Myrtle Beach, SC has made it onto the list of most popular migration destinations for the first time on record. The South Carolina beach town is the 9th-most popular destination for relocating homebuyers, with people most commonly moving in from Washington, D.C. and New York.

Homebuyers are moving to Myrtle Beach for its relatively affordable homes and outdoorsy lifestyle, as is the case for most of the most popular migration destinations. People moving from pricey East Coast job hubs to Myrtle Beach can get much more house for their money. The typical home in the Myrtle Beach metro sells for about $360,000, compared with over $600,000 in Washington, D.C. and about $800,000 in New York.

“This area attracts a lot of retirees, particularly from the Northeast and the West Coast, because of its relatively inexpensive cost of living, low property taxes, golf courses and sunny weather,” said Myrtle Beach Redfin agent Monica Roman. “Since the start of the pandemic, I’ve also seen quite a few remote workers move in, drawn by our reasonably priced housing and year-round vacation lifestyle.”

Metros in the Sun Belt and Florida are the most popular migration destinations despite increasing risk of flooding, heat and hurricanes

Las Vegas tops the list of most popular destinations for Redfin.com users moving to a different metro area for the second month in a row. It’s followed by Sacramento and three Florida metros: Tampa, North Port-Sarasota and Cape Coral. Popularity is determined by net inflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to move into an area than leave.

Relatively affordable metros with warm weather are typically the most popular destinations. Metro areas in the Sun Belt and Florida are perennially in the top 10 metros for relocating Redfin.com users. Housing affordability is an especially big draw as today’s elevated mortgage rates combine with stubbornly high home prices to push monthly mortgage payments near record highs.

Metros in the southern half of the U.S. are popular despite many of them facing increasing risk from climate change. For instance, Las Vegas faces severe heat risk, Tampa faces extreme flood risk and Myrtle Beach faces extreme risk of hurricanes and other severe wind events. People keep moving to those areas, though, largely because they’re typically relatively affordable. The median home price in Las Vegas is $415,000, compared to nearly $1 million in Los Angeles, the most common origin for homebuyers moving in. And the typical home costs $430,000 in Tampa, roughly half the cost of one in New York, where homebuyers most commonly come from.

It’s worth noting that there are fewer homebuyers moving into 8 of the 10 most popular destinations than there were a year ago as high mortgage rates cool the housing market.

Homebuyers are leaving expensive coastal cities for more affordable places

Homebuyers are leaving San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles more than any other metro in the country. That’s based on net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users are looking to leave a metro than move in.

Pricey coastal job centers are typically among the metros homebuyers most commonly leave. That’s largely because buyers are often looking to relocate to places with more affordable housing, something that has become more feasible with the prevalence of remote work. It has also become more feasible to move to beachy vacation towns: Homebuyers leaving Washington, D.C. are most commonly moving to the Salisbury, MD metro and those leaving Boston are most commonly moving to the Portland, ME metro.

To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit:

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-migration-trends-july-2023

Have you ever observed a professional colleague, a friend, or a leader whom you admire, confidently facing uncertainty without any apparent fear? The phrase “fearless leader” must have emerged in our vocabulary for a good reason, don’t you think? Truth be told, those individuals aren’t fearless — no one is. What they have done is mastered the feeling of fear, which has unlocked their innate ability to see disruption and change as an opportunity more quickly.

As I have noted over the years of working with many clients around the world, one common thread that ties humans together in this world of rampant disruption and change is that we all find it unpleasant in many ways. Above all else, from executives down to entry-level employees, everyone finds disruption and change frightening in some fashion.

What fear can often do to us is cloud how empowering and full of opportunity disruption and change actually is, and while I teach many individuals about utilizing Hard Trend future certainties to pre-solve problems and make low-risk moves, there are just as many stuck on the feeling of fear.

Today, I want to show you how you can utilize that same Hard Trend Methodology implemented to anticipate disruption and change prior to it occurring, but also to overcome the feeling of fear by recognizing it as a fully predictable cycle!

This really puts the power in your hands — this knowledge that everyone within your industry and outside of it will experience this same disruption and change, with you seeing it coming and forming an Anticipatory action plan around it.

The Origins of Our Fear of Disruption and Change

What is the real reason behind us as a human race fearing disruption and change? The answer lies deep within the subconscious mind. Back when human beings were still hunters and gatherers, the fight-or-flight response was necessary to basic survival. From finding food, warding off predators, and finding shelter, everything was about survival.

While humans have certainly come a long way since these primitive times, the fight-or-flight response and our roots in survival are still solidly ingrained in our subconscious mind. This explains, in simple terms, why our first thought in relation to disruption and change is fear. A change in our professional or personal status quo represents to us, now in a more contemporary way, that our daily survival tactics may be threatened.

For instance, AI disrupting your career may trigger a fear that you will lose your job to said technology, resulting in loss of income and potentially the loss of your home, transportation, and so forth.

But with disruption and change comes the ability for us to create disruption and change in an offensive strategy. Adaptation and change are inherent strengths of humans, setting us apart from digital applications and other material forces. These abilities empower us in unique ways.

Worrying that AI will replace you in the workforce is akin to the concerns of people in the past who feared the impact of desktop computers and laptops. However, as history has shown, we have successfully adapted to those digital disruptions. Today, these technologies are indispensable in both our personal and professional lives, yet we remain resilient and continue to thrive even in their presence.

A Mastery of Cycles Helps Us Adapt

The reality of fearing disruption and change is that we can fully anticipate exactly how disruption and change feels to us as individuals. In lieu of this introspection, we can more quickly go through the common stages of fear and center ourselves so well, we will eventually be able to skip our fear entirely!

This is made possible by realizing that the stages of fear are a cycle, much like a biological cycle, product cycle, and even cycles in nature, such as the future certainty that the seasons will change every year. We have all experienced fear and anxiety, and the following four stages are exactly how that feeling works through our psyche in the face of disruption and change:

• Initial Shock
• Frustration
• Acceptance
• Mastery

Let’s look at them from a more pragmatic standpoint, where we start to see that the cycle of fear itself is a Hard Trend future certainty that we can anticipate and overcome. This removes fear as a roadblock and essentially clears the way for us to focus instead on leveraging the disruption and change in front of us.

Initial Shock is the first stage. This is where the fight-or-flight response comes into play and people fear where their business or work position is headed.

Then comes Frustration, the second stage of fear. Prior to any disruption, people are comfortable in their status quo. After disruption and change occur, those disrupted must learn new skills, which can be frustrating.

The third stage in the cycle of fear is Acceptance. At this stage, people know the disruption has arrived or they have begun to leverage it to their advantage, witnessing positive results.

Mastery of the disruption or change is the final stage in the cycle. At this point, everyone has fully accepted what has changed, learned all about it, and is likely starting to use it in their daily lives.

By acknowledging and understanding that these four stages of fear occur every time we face disruption or change, we can Anticipate the feeling of fear that comes with it and move past it to find the opportunity within the disruption.

Use the Excitement of Learning to Turn Disruption into an Opportunity

We as humans have a thirst for knowledge. Similar to fight or flight, our craving to always know more is a biological response. We develop biologically all throughout our lives, and as such, we crave new information. We want to know more. We want to know everything.

Overcoming fear and learning to process that sensation more quickly allows for more room in our emotional existence to soak up all the great opportunity that comes from an ever-evolving world instead of avoiding it or trying to ignore it.

Leverage this excitement for knowledge to learn more about disruption and change so you too can help it blossom into opportunity and advantage, both personally and professionally. In turn, you become the fearless leader that others look to emulate. Train yourself to embrace disruption and change as something positive, and before long, you will be the positive disruptor of your industry!

Discover the future of AI and its transformative potential! Visit www.aiStrategyReport.com now to download the comprehensive AI Strategy Report and stay ahead in this fast-evolving landscape. Empower yourself with valuable insights and make informed decisions to unlock new opportunities. Don’t miss out on this essential resource – take action today and embrace the AI revolution!

Borrowing from an epic line, the new revisions to the BLS Jobs numbers from April 2022 to March 2023 show an overstatement of jobs by more than 300,000 jobs! Reminds me of another classic line, “You had just ONE job to do…” Well, the year-old numbers they shared are already almost six months old. So now you know why the markets continue to be frustrated by the government agencies, The Federal Reserve Board Members, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and even the President, when they continue to spout “facts” about the economy and jobs that clearly are either old, out of date, or just plain fabrications!

Remember just two short years ago when inflation was transitory? Remember when we were told that spending more than a TRILLION dollars on something called “the inflation reduction act” wasn’t going to add to inflation? Remember another two TRILLION dollars on something called “Build Back Better” that wasn’t going to cause inflation and create MILLIONS of new high paying jobs for those people in the coal and oil industries to help switch everyone over to green new energy? Remember…well, I can go on and on, but you get the picture. 

Why is it people don’t think we can’t handle the truth? I was puzzled by what there could possibly be to gain by saying over and over things that were flat out lies? But it became clear to me, it isn’t us; it’s THEM! THEY CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH! Well, the market responded yesterday on this news and the 30yr MBS 5.5% coupon was better by 63bps! The 10-year treasury was down by 13bps. The second of these numbers is the real number to watch, because if it falls much further, we could see a dramatic fall in the yield as those who have recently shorted the 10 year, will be forced to cover their short positions and that could lead to a HUGE drop in yields! With more than 20% of that market being shorted, a short squeeze could be significant.

Much will depend on what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says on Friday at Jackson Hole. If he signals a change in position and to stop raising rates; yesterday’s 63 bps could be just the tip of the iceberg! However, if he maintains his tightening bias, we may give it all back, at least for now! So, stay connected, it is important to follow!

Questions or comments: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The typical home purchased in high-opportunity U.S. neighborhoods went for $470,000 last year—$130,000 more than the typical home in low-opportunity areas

The typical home that sold in a high-opportunity U.S. neighborhood in 2022 went for $470,000, 38.2% more than the typical home that sold in a low-opportunity neighborhood, which went for $340,000. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

The report is based on an analysis of home sales in 100 of the most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. Redfin sorted each neighborhood into one of three tiers—low opportunity, intermediate opportunity and high opportunity. A high-opportunity neighborhood is defined as one where children who grew up in low-earning households went on to become higher earning adults than the typical person who grew up in their metro at the same time.

People in high-opportunity neighborhoods are more likely than those in low-opportunity neighborhoods to live among highly rated schools, professional networking opportunities, large numbers of college graduates and low rates of poverty and crime. High-opportunity neighborhoods also have larger concentrations of two-parent households, along with high levels of income inequality and segregation—meaning they tend to skew wealthy and white. The methodology Redfin used to measure opportunity was developed by Harvard University researcher Raj Chetty.

“It’s prohibitively expensive for many families—particularly those of color—to access the neighborhoods that offer children the best shot at financial success,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Where you grow up lays the groundwork for your future. Kids raised in low-opportunity neighborhoods have a lower chance of getting a good education and well-paying job, growing a robust professional network, building wealth through home equity and staying out of harm’s way. That can perpetuate a cycle of segregation and wealth inequality that can last for generations, with their children and grandchildren often grappling with the same disadvantages.”

The price premium of high-opportunity neighborhoods has shrunk over time, but that’s not because these areas have become more affordable. It’s because many low-opportunity neighborhoods have gentrified and become less affordable.

High-Opportunity Neighborhoods Have More Homes for Sale, But Those Homes Are Less Affordable—Especially for Families of Color

The good news is the lion’s share (39.5%) of U.S. homes for sale are in high-opportunity neighborhoods. The bad news is high-opportunity neighborhoods are rarely affordable. Just 13% of homes for sale in high-opportunity neighborhoods last year were affordable on their metro area’s median income, compared with 31.7% in low-opportunity neighborhoods. Affordability has fallen across the board due to surging home prices; the median sale price in high-opportunity neighborhoods has grown 100% since 2012, while the median sale price in low-opportunity neighborhoods has jumped 174%.

White families have an easier time gaining access to these areas than many families of color. Just 4.2% of homes for sale in high-opportunity neighborhoods were affordable for the typical Black household in 2022. The share was nearly five times higher (19.1%) for the typical white household.

On average, just over one-third (35.2%) of residents in the high-opportunity neighborhoods Redfin analyzed are nonwhite, compared with nearly two-thirds (61.4%) in low-opportunity neighborhoods.

The Price Premium for Opportunity Is Highest in Segregated Midwestern and Southern Metros

In Detroit, the median home sale price in high-opportunity neighborhoods was $240,000 in 2022. That’s 269% higher than the $65,00 median sale price in Detroit’s low-opportunity neighborhoods—the largest premium of the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came Memphis, TN, where high-opportunity neighborhoods held a 187% premium. Rounding out the top five are Akron, OH (169%), Milwaukee (149%) and Birmingham, AL (143%).

Many of the metros where high-opportunity neighborhoods carry hefty home-price premiums grapple with relatively high levels of segregation. Milwaukee and Detroit both rank among the five most segregated metros based on 2020 Census data; Memphis and Birmingham are also near the top of the list.

New York was the only metro where it was less expensive (by 6.7%) to live in a high-opportunity neighborhood. The median sale price of high-opportunity neighborhoods in New York was $695,000, compared with $745,000 in low-opportunity neighborhoods.

In Detroit, High-Opportunity Neighborhoods Are Nearly Four Times More Expensive and Predominantly White

Detroit’s high-opportunity neighborhoods overlap with the metro’s predominantly white, suburban areas, while low-opportunity neighborhoods overlap with predominantly nonwhite parts of the urban core.

Plymouth, a city of about 10,000 located a short drive west of Detroit, is one example of a high-opportunity neighborhood in the Detroit metro area.

“Plymouth screams suburbia. It has a quaint little downtown, cute restaurants and coffee shops, highly-rated high schools and an ice-sculpture festival every winter,” said Kate McNeill, Redfin’s market manager in Detroit. “It stands in contrast to some neighborhoods closer to downtown, where there has been less development despite increasing home prices in recent years.”

McNeill continued: “Take Highland Park, a majority Black area that has seen its population decline by 24% in the past decade or so. Much of that is due to disinvestment and a lack of city services. When you walk around Highland Park, many homes have been boarded up and abandoned.”

Opportunities for Change: Provide Home-Search Assistance, Subsidize Affordable Housing and Reform Zoning Laws

While low-income families are often concentrated in low-opportunity neighborhoods, research has shown this is rarely a function of choice. Oftentimes, they end up in low-opportunity areas because there are barriers in the home-search process that prevent them from moving to a high-opportunity neighborhood. A 2020 study of housing-voucher recipients in Washington State found just that:

“Many families reported that they had limited time and resources to search for housing, as they were facing challenges such as domestic violence, mental health conditions, or holding multiple jobs while caring for children as single parents,” wrote the researchers, led by Columbia University’s Peter Bergman and Raj Chetty. “Redesigning affordable housing policies to provide customized assistance in housing search could reduce residential segregation and increase upward mobility substantially.”

In the study, low-income housing-voucher recipients in Washington’s King County (which includes Seattle) were offered services including customized rental search assistance, landlord engagement and short-term financial assistance. They could choose to use their housing voucher in any neighborhood within the housing authority’s jurisdiction. Of the families who received the aforementioned services, 53% chose to lease units in high-opportunity neighborhoods, compared with just 15% of families who did not receive the services.

These strategies used to help renters in Seattle could also be employed to help first-time buyers everywhere navigate the home-search process, Redfin’s Marr said.

”Local leaders should seek to remove barriers that prevent low-income families from moving into high-opportunity neighborhoods, while also investing in low-opportunity neighborhoods,” Marr said. “In addition to offering assistance during the home-search process, governments can invest more in public schools in low-opportunity neighborhoods, offer affordable housing subsidies and reform zoning laws to allow for more housing in high-opportunity neighborhoods.”

To view the full report, including charts, tables with metro-level data and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/home-price-premium-high-opportunity-neighborhoods