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Posted On Monday, 14 August 2023 10:39 Written by
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Posted On Friday, 11 August 2023 12:54
Posted On Friday, 11 August 2023 11:14

Almost 60% of metro markets (128 out of 221) registered home price gains in the second quarter of 2023 as 30-year fixed mortgage rates oscillated between 6.28% and 6.71%, according to the National Association of Realtors®latest quarterly report. Five percent of the 221 tracked metro areas registered double-digit price increases over the same period, down from seven percent in the first quarter.

“Home sales were down due to higher mortgage rates and limited inventory,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Affordability challenges are easing due to moderating and, in some cases, falling home prices, while the number of jobs and incomes are increasing.” 

Compared to a year ago, the national median single-family existing-home price dipped 2.4% to $402,600. In the prior quarter, the year-over-year national median price decreased 0.2%.

“Just like the weather, large local market variations exist despite the minor change in the national home price,” Yun added.

Among the major U.S. regions, the South saw the largest share of single-family existing-home sales (46%) in the second quarter, with year-over-year price depreciation of 2.2%. Prices rose 3.2% in the Northeast and 1.4% in the Midwest but retreated 5.8% in the West.[i]

Year-over-year prices in the second quarter declined by 19.1% in Austin, 11.3% in San Francisco, 9.6% in Salt Lake City and 7.4% in Las Vegas.

“Interestingly, price declines occurred in some of the fastest job-creating markets,” Yun said. “Prices in these areas are trying to land on better fundamentals after several years of skyrocketing increases. In fact, the number of homes receiving multiple offers, alongside continuing job and wage gains, signal price slides may already be a thing of the past.”

The top 10 metro areas with the largest year-over-year price increases all recorded gains of at least 10.4%, with six of those markets in the Midwest. Those include Fond du Lac, Wis. (25.3%); New Bern, N.C. (19.7%); Duluth, Minn.-Wis. (14.6%); Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, Iowa-Ill. (12.6%); Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J. (11.7%); Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, Tenn.-Va. (11.5%); Peoria, Ill. (11.5%); Green Bay, Wis. (10.9%); Trenton, N.J. (10.5%); and Cape Girardeau, Mo.-Ill. (10.4%).

Seven of the top 10 most expensive markets in the U.S. were in California. Overall, those markets are San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. ($1,800,000; -5.3%); San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. ($1,335,000; -11.3%); Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, Calif. ($1,250,000; -3.8%); Urban Honolulu, Hawaii ($1,060,700; -7.4%); San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. ($942,400; -2.4%); Salinas, Calif. ($915,600; 0.6%); Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif. ($904,900; -2.7%); San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif. ($890,900; -3.2%); Boulder, Colo. ($871,200; -6.7%); and Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, Fla. ($850,000; unchanged).

About two in five markets (41%; 90 of 221) experienced home price declines in the second quarter, up from 31% in the first quarter.

Housing affordability worsened from the first-to-second quarter due to rising home prices and mortgage rates. The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $2,051, up 10% from the first quarter ($1,864) and 11.6% – or $214 – from one year ago. Families typically spent 27% of their income on mortgage payments, up from 24.5% in the previous quarter and 25.3% one year ago.

Lack of inventory and affordability continued to impact first-time buyers during the second quarter. For a typical starter home valued at $342,200 with a 10% down payment loan, the monthly mortgage payment grew to $2,012, up 9.9% from the previous quarter ($1,830). That was an increase of more than $200, or 11.3%, from one year ago ($1,807). First-time buyers typically spent 40.7% of their family income on mortgage payments, up from 37.1% in the prior quarter.

A family needed a qualifying income of at least $100,000 to afford a 10% down payment mortgage in 40.3% of markets, up from 33% in the prior quarter. Yet, a family needed a qualifying income of less than $50,000 to afford a home in 6.3% of markets, down from 10% in the previous quarter.

 

[i] Areas are generally metropolitan statistical areas as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. NAR adheres to the OMB definitions, although in some areas an exact match is not possible from the available data. A list of counties included in MSA definitions is available at: https://www.census.gov/geographies/reference-files/time-series/demo/metro-micro/delineation-files.html.

Regional median home prices are from a separate sampling that includes rural areas and portions of some smaller metros that are not included in this report; the regional percentage changes do not necessarily parallel changes in the larger metro areas. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Quarter-to-quarter comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns.

Median price measurement reflects the types of homes that are selling during the quarter and can be skewed at times by changes in the sales mix. For example, changes in the level of distressed sales, which are heavily discounted, can vary notably in given markets and may affect percentage comparisons. Annual price measures generally smooth out any quarterly swings.

NAR began tracking of metropolitan area median single-family home prices in 1979; the metro area condo price series dates back to 1989.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate for a particular quarter represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative sales pace for that quarter was maintained for four consecutive quarters. Total home sales include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-operative housing.

Posted On Friday, 11 August 2023 06:41 Written by

U.S. home prices are up 3% year over year despite relatively slow demand. That’s due to a shortage of homes for sale, with inventory posting its biggest drop in over a year and a half.

The median U.S. home-sale price rose 3% year over year during the four weeks ending August 6, the biggest increase since November. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Prices are rising much more in certain parts of the country, with double-digit increases in Miami and Milwaukee.

Prices are increasing despite tepid homebuying demand, with some buyers still sidelined by stubbornly high mortgage rates: They’re hovering around 7%, up from a 3% average in 2021 and a 5.3% average in 2022. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index, which measures early-stage demand through requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents, is down 5% from a year ago to its lowest level since March. Mortgage-purchase applications are down 27% from a year ago, also reaching their lowest level since March.

Limited inventory is pushing prices up, with so few homes for sale that there are more house hunters than homes on the market in much of the country. The total number of homes for sale is down 18% year over year, the biggest drop since the start of 2022, and new listings are down 16%, with homeowners staying put to hold onto their relatively low mortgage rate. It’s worth noting that another reason prices are up on an annual basis is that they were coming down from an all-time high at this time last year.

“There’s a fair amount of demand for lower-priced single-family homes, which in this area means around $400,000 and under,” said Spokane, WA Redfin Premier agent Brynn Rea. “Buyers are looking for a deal to make up for high mortgage rates. That means the few move-in ready, relatively affordable homes on the market are selling fast, sometimes with multiple offers. But today’s bidding wars usually involve two or three offers, as opposed to the five to 10 offers we were seeing a year and a half ago—and many higher-priced homes are sitting on the market because it’s hard to afford today’s monthly payments.”

Leading indicators of homebuying activity:

  • The daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.05% on August 9. For the week ending August 3, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.9%, slightly higher than a week earlier but slightly lower than the half-year high hit three weeks earlier.
  • Mortgage-purchase applications during the week ending August 4 declined 3% from a week earlier, seasonally adjusted. Purchase applications were down 27% from a year earlier.
  • The seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for home tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents—was down 6% from a month earlier to its lowest level since March. It was down 5% from a year earlier.
  • Google searches for “homes for sale” were down roughly 8% from a month earlier during the week ending August 5, and down about 11% from a year earlier.
  • Touring activity as of August 6 was up 7% from the start of the year, compared with a 5% decrease at the same time last year, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.

Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas:

Unless otherwise noted, this data covers the four-week period ending August 6. Redfin’s weekly housing market data goes back through 2015. For bullets that include metro-level breakdowns, Redfin analyzed the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.

  • The median home sale price was $381,225, up 3% from a year earlier. That’s the biggest increase since November.
  • Sale prices increased most in Miami (12.6% YoY), Milwaukee (12.1%), West Palm Beach, FL (9.2%), Cincinnati (8.9%) and San Diego (8.6%).
  • Home-sale prices declined in 12 metros, with the biggest drops in Austin, TX (-10.6% YoY), San Francisco (-6.3%), Phoenix (-3.6%), Fort Worth, TX (-3%) and Las Vegas (-2.6%).
  • The median asking price of newly listed homes was $386,748, up 2.5% from a year earlier.
  • The monthly mortgage payment on the median-asking-price home was $2,602 at a 6.9% mortgage rate, the average for the week ending August 3. That’s down about 1% ($39) from the record high hit three weeks earlier, but up 18% from a year earlier.
  • Pending home sales were down 13.2% year over year, continuing a 15-month streak of double-digit declines.
  • Pending home sales fell in all but three of the metros Redfin analyzed. They declined most in Providence, RI (-28.9% YoY), Newark, NJ (-26.4%), Boston (-24.9%), Seattle (-24.5%) and Warren, MI (-24.3%). They increased 1.9% in Las Vegas, and roughly 1% in Austin, TX and West Palm Beach.
  • New listings of homes for sale fell 16.5% year over year.
  • New listings declined in all metros Redfin analyzed. They fell most in Las Vegas (-37.5% YoY), Phoenix (-33.1%), Chicago (-26.7%), Oakland, CA (-25.3%) and New Brunswick, NJ (-24.3%).
  • Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) dropped 17.9% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since February 2022. Active listings were essentially flat from a month earlier; typically, they post month-over-month increases at this time of year.
  • Months of supply—a measure of the balance between supply and demand, calculated by the number of months it would take for the current inventory to sell at the current sales pace—was 2.7 months, roughly the same as a year earlier. Four to five months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
  • 43.6% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, up from 41% a year earlier.
  • Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 28 days, up from 24 days a year earlier.
  • 35.3% of homes sold above their final list price, down from 42% a year earlier.
  • On average, 6.1% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, down from 6.5% a year earlier.
  • The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their final asking prices, was 99.9%. That’s down from 100.5% a year earlier.

To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-low-demand-lower-supply-high-prices

Posted On Thursday, 10 August 2023 10:26 Written by

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