The supply of homes for sale posted a record year-over-year increase this week as homes linger on the market. But some buyers are making their way back, with Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index showing an uptick in early-stage demand.
The total number of homes for sale rose 18% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending December 25, the biggest increase since at least 2015, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Inventory is up even though new listings are down by double digits because homes are taking a long time to sell amid 6%-plus mortgage rates (the average 30-year rate ticked up to 6.42% this week), economic uncertainty and the typically slow holiday season.
The typical home was on the market for 40 days before going under contract, more than double the record low of 18 days set in May and the slowest pace since January 2021. Just over one-quarter (28%) of homes went under contract within two weeks, the lowest share since January 2020.
Some buyers are dipping their toes back in the market, as they’re able to take their time searching. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of requests for tours and other Redfin buying services–is up 14% from its October low. Still, Redfin doesn’t expect sales to tick up until well into January.
"This week's mortgage-rate pop can be chocked up to a handful of factors, but the week between Christmas and New Years is typically the slowest of the year for pending sales," said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. "We'll know more about the direction of rates and whether the recent uptick in early-stage demand will translate into sales when we're settled into the new year."
Home prices fell from a year earlier in 17 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros
Home-sale prices fell year over year in 17 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros during the four weeks ending December 25.
Prices fell 9% year over year in San Francisco, 6.5% in San Jose, 6% in Los Angeles, 4.5% in Detroit, 4.4% in Pittsburgh, 3.7% in Sacramento, 3.6% in Oakland, CA and 2.3% in Austin. They fell 2% or less in New York, Seattle, Anaheim, CA, Phoenix, Chicago, Newark, NJ, Riverside, CA, Boston and Washington, D.C.
This marks the first time Boston prices have fallen since at least 2015, as far back as this data goes. It’s the first time Washington, D.C. prices have fallen since 2016.
Leading indicators of homebuying activity:
Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas:
Unless otherwise noted, this data covers the four-week period ending December 25. Redfin’s weekly housing market data goes back through 2015.
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-homes-linger-on-market
Last week you had just a few more loans to close to close out the year, and then close the books and start fresh with a solid head of steam into 2023. At least, that is what I hope you all did!
I had a few people who did open houses with their more engaged agents last weekend, I will be very interested in seeing how they went.
Your business plan should already be in place. Your schedule should be adjusted to the realities of your market. All the new tools and technologies should have been adopted and fully functional, so you are all set to go next week so all you need to do is execute and adjust; track your results and execute again.
Many are forecasting a challenging 2023, if you are prepared, it won’t be. If you aren’t, it always is. Either way, people will be buying and selling homes. Many will need loans to do so, and if you were on top of your plan, you should see plenty of opportunities to fill your pipeline
Trust your plan and your process. Show up and do the work. The only two things you need to know is that failure only counts when you quit trying! Otherwise, it’s a learning experience you can use to succeed. The game ain’t over until you win!
Have a safe and happy New Year’s weekend, and I will see you again next week. As always, if you have questions or comments, it’s This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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