Today's Headlines - Realty Times
Posted On Monday, 24 July 2023 08:12 Written by

Redfin reports 14 of every 1,000 homes changed hands in the first half of 2023, compared to 19 of every 1,000 during the same period in 2019. The turnover rate for large suburban houses has declined even more.

Roughly 14 of every 1,000 U.S. homes changed hands during the first six months of 2023, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s down from 19 of every 1,000 during the same period of 2019 and the lowest turnover rate in at least a decade.

In 2018, Freddie Mac estimated that about 2.5 million more homes needed to be built to meet demand, with the shortfall mainly due to a lack of construction of single-family homes. The homebuying boom of late 2020 and 2021, driven by record-low mortgage rates, remote work and a surge in investor purchases, depleted already low inventory levels. Finally, 2022's soaring mortgage rates—average rates nearly doubled from January to June—exacerbated the shortage by handcuffing homeowners to their comparatively low rates.

“The quick increase in mortgage rates created an uphill battle for many Americans who want to buy a home by locking up inventory and making the homes that do hit the market too expensive. The typical home is selling for about 40% more than before the pandemic,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Mortgage rates dropping closer to 5% would make the biggest dent in the affordability crisis by freeing up some inventory and bringing monthly payments down. But there are a few other things that would boost turnover and help make homes more affordable. Building more housing is imperative, and federal and local governments can help by reforming zoning and making the building process easier. Financial incentives, like reducing transfer taxes for home sellers and subsidizing major moves with tax breaks, would also add to supply.”

The turnover rate has shrunk most in the suburbs: 16 of every 1,000 large suburban houses have changed hands this year, two-thirds as many as 2019

House hunters searching for large homes in the suburbs have seen the biggest drop in their options. Just about 16 of every 1,000 four-bedroom-plus suburban single-family homes sold in the first half of this year, down from 24 of every 1,000 that sold in the same period in 2019. That means buyers of that home type have 33% fewer houses to choose from.

“New listings normally hit the market on Thursdays, and I have buyers who are excitedly checking their Redfin app Thursday mornings, only to find nothing new,” said Phoenix Redfin Premier agent Heather Mahmood-Corley. “That goes for buyers in every price range in every type of neighborhood, but what people want most are those move-in ready, mid-sized homes in neighborhoods with highly rated schools. Those are hardest to find because for people to buy one, someone needs to sell one. That’s not happening, because so many of those homeowners have low mortgage rates.”

The turnover rate has dropped for every size home in every type of neighborhood over the last four years (though buyers will have an easier time finding something for sale in certain metro areas).

The turnover rate of condos and townhomes didn’t shrink as much as that of single-family homes during the pandemic. Supply of that home type wasn’t depleted as much because there wasn’t as much demand for them.

Modestly sized single-family homes in the city are hardest to find: Just 11 of every 1,000 two- and three-bedroom urban houses sold in the first half of this year

Smaller houses in the city have the lowest turnover rate of all the home types in this analysis. Roughly 11 of every 1,000 two- and three-bedroom single-family homes in urban neighborhoods sold in the first six months of 2023, compared to 14 of every 1,000 during the same period in 2019.

Two- to three-bedroom homes in suburban neighborhoods are essentially tied with their urban counterparts for the lowest turnover rate, with 11 of every 1,000 changing hands this year. That’s down from 16 of every 1,000 in 2019.

Homebuyers have the smallest pool of options in the Bay Area: Just 6 of every 1,000 San Jose homes have turned over to a new owner this year

Northern California has the lowest turnover rate in the U.S. Just six of every 1,000 homes in San Jose changed hands in the first half of 2023, the lowest rate of the 50 most populous U.S. metros. It’s followed closely by Oakland, San Diego, Los Angeles, Sacramento and Anaheim, all places where about eight of every 1,000 homes turned over to a new owner.

The pandemic exacerbated the supply shortage throughout California, with the turnover rate dropping by at least 30% in each of those metros from 2019 to 2023.

Zooming in on large, suburban single-family homes, California still has the lowest turnover rate. California historically has the lowest housing turnover because the state’s tax laws–namely proposition 13–incentivizes homeowners to stay put by limiting property-tax increases.

Homebuyers have the biggest pool of options in Newark, NJ and Nashville, where more than 23 of every 1,000 homes have changed hands this year

Newark, NJ has the highest turnover rate in the U.S., with 24 of every 1,000 homes changing hands during the first six months this year. It’s followed closely by Nashville, TN (23 of every 1,000) and Austin, TX (22 of every 1,000). Nashville and Austin are also two of the three metros (along with Fort Worth, TX) with the highest turnover for large suburban, single-family homes.

But Nashville and Austin are both among the five metros with the smallest declines in turnover since 2019, posting drops of just 10% and 14%, respectively. When it comes to large suburban houses, Nashville and Austin have the second and third smallest declines. That’s partly due to robust new construction in Nashville and Austin: Inventory of single-family homes for sale in both metros is made up of more than 30% newly built homes, compared to 22% nationwide.

Only Milwaukee and Columbus, OH, which both saw overall turnover drop by about 8% from 2019 to 2023, had smaller declines in turnover than Nashville. Indianapolis, IN comes in fourth, with a 14% decline. Milwaukee, Columbus and Indianapolis have relatively stable turnover because they didn’t experience huge homebuying demand swings throughout the pandemic.

To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-turnover-decline-since-pandemic

Posted On Sunday, 23 July 2023 07:45 Written by

In the latest survey from Lending Tree they found that 29% of Americans say they’d be open to co-buying a home with someone other than their spouse or significant other. 

  • 36% of Non-homeowners fear they'll never be able to buy on their own.
  • 29% of Americans say they’d be open to co-buying a home with someone. 63% say they’d consider doing so with a family member who wasn’t their spouse and 57% say they’d consider buying with a good friend or current roommate. 
  • Nearly two-thirds of parents say they’d consider co-buying a home with their child. Millennial parents are the most receptive to the idea at 76%, compared with 53% of baby boomers.
  • 64% of non-homeowners say they think they’ll be able to afford a home without a co-buyer one day. Gen Z is the most optimistic generation at 76%, while baby boomers have the bleakest outlook at 43%.
  • Of those who think they’ll be able to buy in the future, 45% say down payment requirements are currently holding them back, while 38% say home prices are too high in their respective areas.
  • You can check out our full report here: https://www.lendingtree.com/home/cities-with-the-largest-share-of-million-dollar-homes/

LendingTree's Senior Economist and report author, Jacob Channel, had this to say:

"Even if they'd rather buy, people should keep in mind that there's nothing wrong with being a renter. Remember that it's better to be a renter who can keep their head above water financially, than it is to be a homeowner who is drowning in debt. Similarly, being a renter is likely going to be better than being a homeowner with a co-buyer who is less than dependable and who might force you to pay their share of the bills."

Posted On Sunday, 23 July 2023 14:24 Written by

With mortgage applications off by more than 20% year over year, many are feeling the pain. Many had thought that we were going to see a much stronger mortgage bond market by now and rates would have been slowly heading into the 5% range. I was one of those people. I still believe that rates will head lower as the Fed begins to realize that they have gone far enough in raising rates, some think too far, but after they raise rates again next week, we might get enough information in that will convince them that this move higher should be their last. I hope so! The next meeting will be in September and the repayment process on student loans will tighten economic activity a good bit all on their own. We don’t need a recession. That is, if we ever get a “new” definition of what a recession is!

Regardless of that, many originators and companies are trying to cope with lower volumes. Mergers will continue and some really good people will be losing jobs as many support staff will be let go. Some branches may have to merge, and some managers will be gone. Some companies will eliminate different programs and some layers of management. A few will reduce compensation and cut services. While others will close their doors, not being able to survive at all. The pain is real!

The good news to be found is that there is still strong desire for the consumer to buy homes, and the much-promoted housing bubble theory promoted by many on social media never happened. With building permits not living up to expectations, the demand for homes in MOST areas will remain strong and prices will continue to rise at a modest rate.

The next piece of good news is that as some struggle, others are available to grow market share and to find qualified people to round out their teams. Most will be taking a significant reduction in benefits, but a job for less money is better than no job at all! Focus on what you know is working! Keep connecting with people on a personal level and provide value and opportunities for your referral partners, as they will reward you for being there to support them. I see the last half of this year to be much stronger than last year. There will be more activity and less competition!

Questions or comments: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Posted On Monday, 24 July 2023 00:00 Written by
Posted On Thursday, 20 July 2023 23:47 Written by
Posted On Thursday, 20 July 2023 20:35
Posted On Thursday, 20 July 2023 20:29
Posted On Thursday, 20 July 2023 20:15

Existing-home sales slipped in June, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales varied among the four major U.S. regions, with the Northeast experiencing gains, the Midwest holding steady, and the South and West posting decreases. All four regions recorded year-over-year sales declines.

Total existing-home sales[i] – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 3.3% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.16 million in June. Year-over-year, sales fell 18.9% (down from 5.13 million in June 2022).

“The first half of the year was a downer for sure with sales lower by 23%,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Fewer Americans were on the move despite the usual life-changing circumstances. The pent-up demand will surely be realized soon, especially if mortgage rates and inventory move favorably.”

Total housing inventory[ii] registered at the end of June was 1.08 million units, identical to May but down 13.6% from one year ago (1.25 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.0 months in May and 2.9 months in June 2022.

“There are simply not enough homes for sale,” Yun added. “The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.”

The median existing-home price[iii] for all housing types in June was $410,200, the second-highest price of all time and down 0.9% from the record-high of $413,800 in June 2022. The monthly median price surpassed $400,000 for the third time, joining June 2022 and May 2022 ($408,600). Prices rose in the Northeast and Midwest but waned in the South and West.

“Home sales fell but home prices have held firm in most parts of the country,” Yun said. “The national median home price in June was slightly less than the record high of nearly $414,000 in June of last year. Limited supply is still leading to multiple-offer situations, with one-third of homes getting sold above the list price in the latest month.”

Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days in June, identical to May but up from 14 days in June 2022. Seventy-six percent of homes sold in June were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers were responsible for 27% of sales in June, down from 28% in May and 30% in June 2022. NAR’s 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in November 2022[iv] – found that the annual share of first-time buyers was 26%, the lowest since NAR began tracking the data.

All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in June, up from 25% in both May 2023 and June 2022.

Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 18% of homes in June, up from 15% in May and 16% the previous year.

Distressed sales[v] – foreclosures and short sales – represented 2% of sales in June, virtually unchanged from last month and the prior year.

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.96% as of July 13. That’s up from 6.81% the previous week and 5.51% one year ago.

Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales

Single-family home sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.72 million in June, down 3.4% from 3.85 million in May and 18.8% from the previous year. The median existing single-family home price was $416,000 in June, down 1.2% from June 2022.

Existing condominium and co-op sales recorded a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000 units in June, down 2.2% from May and 20.0% from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $361,600 in June, up 1.9% from the previous year ($354,800).

Regional Breakdown

Existing-home sales in the Northeast grew 2.0% from May to an annual rate of 510,000 in June, down 21.5% from June 2022. The median price in the Northeast was $475,300, up 4.9% from the prior year.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales were unchanged from one month ago at an annual rate of 990,000 in June, slumping 19.5% from one year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $311,800, up 2.1% from June 2022.

Existing-home sales in the South faded 5.4% from May to an annual rate of 1.91 million in June, a decrease of 16.2% from the previous year. The median price in the South was $366,600, down 1.2% from June 2022.

In the West, existing-home sales declined 5.1% from the previous month to an annual rate of 750,000 in June, down 22.7% from one year ago. The median price in the West was $606,500, down 3.4% from June 2022.

 

[i] Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings from Multiple Listing Services. Changes in sales trends outside of MLSs are not captured in the monthly series. NAR benchmarks home sales periodically using other sources to assess overall home sales trends, including sales not reported by MLSs.

Existing-home sales, based on closings, differ from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which account for more than 90% of total home sales, are based on a much larger data sample – about 40% of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

              The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

              Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.

[ii] Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90% of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

[iii] The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical of market conditions than average prices, which are skewed higher by a relatively small share of upper-end transactions. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if additional data is received.

The national median condo/co-op price often is higher than the median single-family home price because condos are concentrated in higher-cost housing markets. However, in a given area, single-family homes typically sell for more than condos as seen in NAR’s quarterly metro area price reports.

[iv] Survey results represent owner-occupants and differ from separately reported monthly findings from NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, which include all types of buyers. The annual study only represents primary residence purchases, and does not include investor and vacation home buyers. Results include both new and existing homes.

[v] Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales), days on market, first-time buyers, all-cash transactions and investors are from a monthly survey for the NAR’s Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at nar.realtor.

Posted On Thursday, 20 July 2023 07:12 Written by
Posted On Wednesday, 19 July 2023 14:22 Written by
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