Every year and in every way, I try to help create more Anticipatory Leaders and individuals working at Anticipatory Organizations as opposed to reactionary ones who quickly miss opportunities that are in plain sight.

The major cornerstone to an Anticipatory mindset is my Hard Trend Methodology, where we discern between Hard Trend future certainties that are based on future facts that will happen and Soft Trends that are open to influence. This effort lets you see disruption before it disrupts and solve problems before they occur, turning disruption into a choice.

Highlighting the three categories of my Hard Trend Methodology — technology, government regulations, and demographics — one of them is a constant that all organizations in every industry should be paying as much mind to as possible: demographics.

In a recent episode of my “Opportunity Hour: Conversations with the Masters,” I invited Dr. Ken Dychtwald to speak on the subject of the Baby Boomer age wave. Dr. Dychtwald is North America’s foremost visionary and original thinker regarding the lifestyle, marketing, healthcare, economic, and workforce implications of the Baby Boomer Generation. 

Ken is a psychologist, a gerontologist, the CEO of Age Wave, and bestselling author of 19 books on age-related issues, including his most recent memoir Radical Curiosity: One Man’s Search for Cosmic Magic and a Purposeful Life. Additionally, he is the creative producer and host of the PBS documentary The Boomer Century and his new PBS special Life’s Third Age.

Understanding the Global Age Wave as a Hard Trend

According to Dr. Dychtwald’s research at Age Wave, at the beginning of the 20th century, the average life expectancy was merely 47 years old. The century before, the average life expectancy was even less, ringing in at around 35. 

Now, thanks to the many breakthroughs in the last century or so, including improvements in antibiotics, public health efforts, refrigeration of pharmaceuticals, and exponential self-care, life expectancy has skyrocketed! For many, living to 80, 90, or maybe even more years is a very real possibility. The evidence is clear, as nearly one billion people in the world are currently over the age of 60 and that number is expected to double in the next 20 years.

This has never happened before, and the result is that many societal developments, products, services, and other offerings are not catering to the needs of aging individuals. From automobiles designed to match the form and fit of 20-year-old individuals to our medical system targeting only helping younger individuals too, we have not matched our healthspan to our lifespan.

But aging itself is a Hard Trend. Chronologically, all generations will get older. Right now, the Silent Generation and Baby Boomer Generation are the ones validating this future certainty. Dr. Dychtwald is starting to notice that the whole look and feel of life is moving around and people are now beginning to contemplate living much longer. So how are business, marketing, products, services, and offerings evolving with them?

Changing the Soft Trend

Dozens of questions surround the Soft Trend side of the global age wave, and answers to those help businesses and organizations identify the boundless opportunity that this wave has for everyone. 

Dr. Dychtwald identifies a few Soft Trend questions that Anticipatory entrepreneurs should be asking. In what way are people aging? How do people want to grow older? And what might we need to learn? Dr. Dychtwald encourages people to continually reinspire and reinvent themselves, as do I!

Whether this means individuals are learning new hobbies, starting business later in life, or continuing to serve their community on a volunteer basis, in doing so, we as a society match lifespan with healthspan, and the needs of all generations evolve.

So in light of this, what are some problems we can see that we could pre-solve, as well as what are the opportunities that we can see right now for the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers, or even Gen X and Millennials, as they approach their 40s, 50s, 60s, and beyond?

Constant Business Opportunity in Longevity

Knowing that longevity is truly a Hard Trend thanks to medical and technological developments, transforming business operations and offerings to suit the needs of a population that will continuously age while maintaining their faculties and physical abilities more and more is necessary.

For example, if you are a retailer and your primary customer is older versus younger, perhaps your store layout should include more places to sit, nicer bathrooms, and accommodations that suit the needs of the age wave. But let’s also flip the script here for those with a younger customer base and think in a deeply Anticipatory way. If we know aging is a Hard Trend future certainty, how will you evolve with the younger generation you cater to as they age?

Now, at the moment, the Baby Boomer Generation is our focus, and outside of their needs, one important characteristic to note is that they are not as frugal as their predecessors and many of them hold quite a bit of wealth as opposed to younger generations.

Coupled with that, the stigma that older generations are set in their ways is fading fast. Based on Dr. Dychtwald’s research with Age Wave, people are trying new things. People are falling in love at 50, they’re going to the gym for the first time at 60, and even dreaming up new ideas, as evidenced in the highest rate of successful entrepreneurialism in the world being individuals over the age of 55!

If you are a marketer and you are still stuck believing it is youth that all generations chase, or that people over 50 are somehow not worth your attention, you are losing what could be millions upon millions of dollars in opportunity. People over 50 have more money to spend on health, travel, home renovation, gifts, automobiles, and more.

They are an extremely valuable potential consumer base, and they’re hiding in plain sight for the right Anticipatory entrepreneur to serve with significant products, services, or enrichment opportunities that cater to them.

Is it time for a break? Okay..so the kids are on Spring break, but when do you get to take a break? Why don't we just TAKE one?

It’s that time of the year again. You know, Spring break, upcoming graduations along with the non-stop schedule of buying gifts, prepping food, baking cookies, keeping the house sparkling clean, going to parties, relatives to visit, and on and on and on.

You race from one event to the next, and fall in bed exhausted. There’s never enough time to pack it all in, and by the time you are close to catching up, you just might be a tad irritable, worn-out, and maybe even sick from the latest bug going around.

And somewhere in all of that chaos, you’re supposed to be focused on business and hitting your year-end sales goals. It’s enough to make you sit down and cry.

If you’re finding yourself nodding in agreement to all of that, and thinking to yourself ,“I just want to run away, then you need to spend some time investing in yourself and take a break from the action. You say you can't do it????

Hmm...

Here are some tips on how and WHY you should take care of you.

• It sounds counter-intuitive, but blocking time out for YOU each day will make you more productive in the long run. Make sure you time-block a lunch hour each day (and eat something healthy).
• Plan your day so you can be home for the evening with your family, or if you’re living the single life, so you can spend time with your friends. Limit evening appointments to no more than twice a week. Listen to some music you love, read a book, have a game night with your kids, walk the dog…You need that downtime each evening to relax, de-stress, and recharge your batteries each day.
• Start small, and block an afternoon off to go get a massage, get your nails and hair done, or catch an afternoon movie with the kids…and make sure you change your voicemail and set an autoresponder on your email saying you’re out on appointments for the remainder of the day, but will respond the following day. Avoid the urge to constantly check your messages! I promise, they will be there in the morning.
• Plan a weekend off to go to a nearby trendy hotel or glamping with your partner, get together for a weekend with your best friends, or have a staycation at home. You’ll be energized from being with people who feed your soul, and can tackle your work with renewed enthusiasm after taking this short break.
• Learn to say “No!” This is a hard one for most women, but really, you don’t need to bake cookies for every party you’re invited to. or accept every invitation you get. You don’t even have to keep your house sparkling clean if you don’t want to. It’s ok! Take some time to pick and choose the activities that will nurture you and create some joy.
• Delegate, delegate, delegate! This is a perfect time to get other people involved in helping you stay on top of all you need to do. Indulge in having a housecleaner even just one time to give yourself a break. Consider catering a meal rather than cooking everything yourself and/or trade off the duty with a friend who can cook:-)
• Remember to stay hydrated, eat healthy (all those party carbs can really sap your energy—so choose to offset them by having a salad or healthy soup the next day), take a short walk or exercise every day, and take your vitamins!
By incorporating some self-care into your daily schedule, planning down-time, and learning to say “No”, you’ll find that you are more relaxed, have more energy, and you’re more productive at work and quite frankly, nicer to be around. The Wrap: Be NICE to yourself...then everyone will follow:-)

Want a few secrets to managing your time? Contact me: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Both the 10yr and the 5.5% 30MBS have broken through their 200 day moving averages and it looks like they are wanting to improve even further. What stands between us and further improvement can be employment news today and tomorrow. We have the unemployment number Thursday and the March jobs report on Friday. Given the data we have seen reported earlier this week from ADP, if unemployment claims go higher and the jobs report on Friday shows weakening, the bond market could see more space to improve. 

While I don’t think we can see a massive move, weaker numbers can help sustain this rally and could very well lead us to the FED pausing rate increases and signal inflation is coming under control from previous rate hikes. We all know that these rate hikes take about a year to fully impact the markets, and the first hike was just a little more than a year ago, so we are just starting to see results. Hopefully, the FED will look at all the data and come to the conclusion that further rate hikes are not needed at this time, and wait to see how the next few months play out before making any moves. 

Activity levels vary widely in the housing markets. It is important to look at your local markets for information because the national numbers, and those who interpret them, may not be doing your specific market justice with their outlooks. When you get deeper into the numbers, not all markets are acting the same. Inventory issues are driving much more of the market than interest rates. People want to buy, it’s just that the annual increases in listing we normally see in the first quarter of the year have yet to materialize. Maybe it’s because people aren’t ready to sell, or that they are waiting for other factors to come together. But I do know that while loan applications and contracts may be lower than anticipated, pre-approvals remain strong for those wanting to get out and buy!

So watch the news Thursday and Friday morning and follow the reaction by the mortgage markets and how they respond. PLEASE IGNORE the talking heads in the mainstream media and all the social media “gurus”, they spin news for CLICKS, not for CLIENTS!

Questions or comments: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Limited new listings are making it feel like a seller’s market in some parts of the U.S. even though sales are down by double digits. Some markets still feel cool.

Although elevated mortgage rates continue to dampen homebuying demand, low inventory means home are selling fast in some parts of the country, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

The pool of homes available to buyers is shrinking quickly. That’s mainly because new listings are scarce. New listings fell 21.8% from a year earlier nationwide during the four weeks ending April 2, one of the biggest drops since the start of the pandemic, contributing to an unseasonal early-spring decline in the total number of homes for sale. Many homeowners are staying put because they’re unwilling to give up their low mortgage rate. Although average 30-year mortgage rates posted their fourth-straight decline this week, dropping to 6.28%, that’s more than double the sub-3% rates common in 2021.

Buyers are snapping up the homes that do hit the market fast. Of the homes going under contract, nearly half are doing so within two weeks. That’s up from about one-quarter at the start of the year, an unusually quick winter increase. It would take 2.8 months for today’s supply of for-sale homes to sell at homebuyers’ current consumption rate, the shortest time since September. That’s a sharp drop from the three-year high of 4.5 months in late January and it marks the fastest winter decline in months of supply since at least 2015, in percentage terms. It’s up from a near-record-low of 1.9 months a year ago.

Still, pending home sales are down 19% year over year, nearly as much as new listings. That’s partly because homebuying demand is lower than it was last year and partly because so few homes are hitting the market.

“Elevated mortgage rates are perhaps an even bigger deterrent for would-be sellers than for would-be buyers. Giving up a 3% mortgage rate for one in the 6% range is a tough pill to swallow,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Today’s serious homebuyers have grown accustomed to the idea of a 5% or 6% rate and have adjusted their budgets accordingly. The lack of homes hitting the market explains why the market is moving fast even though sales are still down. The lack of new listings is also one reason why sales are down: Buyers can’t buy if sellers don’t want to sell.”

While new listings are down in every major U.S. metro, the trend is more drastic in some areas. In Denver, where new listings are declining at roughly the same pace as the national drop and there are just 1.6 months of supply, Redfin agent Stephanie Collins said sellers have the upper hand as long as their home isn’t overpriced.

“Shiny new listings are getting multiple offers and selling fast. The caveat is that they have to be priced correctly from the beginning,” Collins said. “One of my buyers recently made an offer on a move-in ready home in a popular area. The home was priced right in line with the market at $520,000; it received eight offers and went for $560,000 to a competing buyer. That same client just had an offer $35,000 over asking price accepted in the same neighborhood. Sellers are hesitant, partly because it’s not spring 2022 anymore. I’m reminding potential sellers that buyers are out there, and some homes have bidding wars—they just need to price a bit lower than they would have a year ago.”

In Austin, a pandemic homebuying hotspot, buyers can take their time and they have a better chance of getting a home under list price. Inventory is piling up—Austin has 4.4 months of supply, more than almost anywhere in the country—and prices are down nearly 15% year over year, more than any other metro.

“Buyers have more power right now. The silver lining of high rates and the slow market we’ve been experiencing here is that some locals are able to buy in neighborhoods they couldn’t have gotten into last year and get contingent offers with small down payments accepted,” said Austin Redfin agent Andrew Vallejo. “But attractive homes that are priced competitively are selling quickly. Sellers are starting to notice, and they’re prepping and pricing their homes accordingly. I think we’ll start to see more listings over the next several months.”

Home Prices Falling in Many Metros, Rising in Others

Home prices dropped in more than half (28) of the 50 most populous U.S. metros, with the biggest drop in Austin, TX (-14.7% YoY). Next come four West Coast metros: Sacramento (-11.7%), Oakland, CA (-10.4%), San Jose, CA (-10.2%) and Seattle (-9.6%). That’s the biggest annual decline since at least 2015 for Seattle.

On the other end of the spectrum, sale prices increased most in Milwaukee, where they rose 11.4% year over year. Next come Fort Lauderdale, FL (8.9%), West Palm Beach, FL (8.2%), Miami (7.9%) and Columbus, OH (6.3%).

On a national level, the median U.S. home-sale price fell 2.1% year over year to roughly $362,000, marking the seventh straight week of declines after more than a decade of increases.

Leading indicators of homebuying activity:

• For the week ending April 6, average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped to 6.28%, the fourth straight week of declines. The daily average was 6.18% on April 6.
• Mortgage-purchase applications during the week ending March 31 declined 4% from a week earlier, seasonally adjusted. Purchase applications were up 8% from a month earlier, but down 35% from a year earlier.
• The seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of request for home tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents—hit its highest level since September during the week ending April 2. It was up 6% from a month earlier, but down 23% from a year earlier.
• Google searches for “homes for sale” were up about 44% from the trough they hit in December during the week ending April 1, but down about 20% from a year earlier.
• Touring activity as of April 1 was up about 20% from the start of the year, compared with a 25% increase at the same time last year, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.

Key housing market takeaways for 400+ U.S. metro areas:

Unless otherwise noted, this data covers the four-week period ending April 2. Redfin’s weekly housing market data goes back through 2015.

• The median home sale price was $361,796, down 2.1% from a year earlier. That’s the seventh week in a row of prices declining annually after more than a decade of increases. The latter is according to Redfin’s monthly dataset, which goes back through 2012.
• The median asking price of newly listed homes was $391,851, up 0.9% year over year.
• The monthly mortgage payment on the median-asking-price home was $2,508 at a 6.28% mortgage rate, the current weekly average. Monthly mortgage payments are down slightly from the peak they reached last month, but up 15% ($326) from a year ago.
• Pending home sales were down 18.9% year over year, the biggest decline in two months aside from the prior four-week period.
• Pending home sales fell in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros. They fell most in Portland, OR (-53.2% YoY), Las Vegas (-47.5% YoY), Sacramento (-46.5%), San Jose (-44.5%) and Seattle (-43.1%).
• New listings of homes for sale fell 21.8% year over year. New listings have been dropping by about 22% on a year-over-year basis for the last month.
• New listings declined in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros, with the biggest declines in Portland, OR (-50.1% YoY), Sacramento (-46.4% YoY), Oakland (-45.9%), San Francisco (-41.2%) and San Jose (-38.8%). New listings declined least in the South: Austin (-2.5% YoY) saw the smallest drop, followed by Fort Worth (-2.8%), Dallas (-4.2%), Nashville, TN (-6.2%) and Houston (-8%).
• Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) were up 12.3% from a year earlier, the smallest increase in five months.
• Months of supply—a measure of the balance between supply and demand, calculated by the number of months it would take for the current inventory to sell at the current sales pace—was 2.8 months, down from 3.2 months a month earlier and up from 1.9 months a year earlier. Four to five months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
• 47% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, the highest level since June, but down from 53% a year earlier.
• Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 39 days. That’s up from 23 days a year earlier and the record low of 18 days set in May.
• 27% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share in more than three months but down from 50% a year earlier.
• On average, 5% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, up from 2.2% a year earlier.
• The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their final asking prices, was 98.7%, the highest level in five months but down from 101.9% a year earlier.

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-scarce-new-listings-fast-market