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Redfin reports new listings dropped for the first time since June and pending sales growth slowed; stagnating mortgage rates and the biggest home-price jump in over a year caused the market to lose momentum

New listings dropped 1.2% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the first decline since June, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. They were up 2.7% from a year earlier, but that marks a deceleration from December’s 4.2% gain.

Active listings (the total number of homes for sale) fell 0.3% from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis—the first decline in six months—and were down 4.4% year over year.

Pending home sales also lost momentum in January, rising 1.1% from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis—a marked slowdown from December’s 5.1% jump. Still, pending sales were at the highest level since September 2022 and rose 8.8% from a year earlier.

Stagnant mortgage rates are the main culprit that took the gas off the housing market pedal last month. They started and ended January at 6.6%—unexciting news after buyers and sellers at the end of last year watched rates drop the most since 2008. Homeowners are hesitant to sell because a majority of them still have mortgage rates below current levels, and selling often means taking on a higher rate.

“A lot of my customers are paying close attention to what the Federal Reserve says. Buyers and sellers came off the sidelines in December when the Fed signaled it would lower interest rates three times in the next year, but now some are getting cold feet because the Fed indicated that rate cuts may come later than expected,” said Hal Bennett, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Bellevue, WA. “Inflation and geopolitical conflicts are also scaring some buyers. April, at the absolutely earliest, is when I think things could take off.”

Brutally cold temperatures across the country last month, along with rising housing costs, also likely contributed to the slight cooldown in market activity.

Home Prices Posted the Biggest Increase in 16 Months

The median U.S. home sale price climbed 5.2% year over year to $402,343 in January, the biggest jump since September 2022. Prices were little changed from a month earlier (-0.01%). Please note that home price data is not seasonally adjusted, which is why Redfin focuses on year-over-year changes for this metric.

America's enduring shortage of homes for sale is the primary driver of price growth; both new listings and active listings remained far below pre-pandemic levels in January.

January 2024 Highlights: United States

 
 

January 2024

Month-Over-Month
Change

Year-Over-Year
Change

Median sale price

$402,343

0.0%

5.2%

Pending sales, seasonally adjusted

430,809

1.1%

8.8%

Homes sold, seasonally adjusted

392,446

-0.2%

-1.0%

New listings, seasonally adjusted

510,057

-1.2%

2.7%

All homes for sale, seasonally adjusted (active listings)

1,554,413

-0.3%

-4.4%

Months of supply

3.1

0.5

-0.3

Median days on market

49

6

-3

Share of for-sale homes with a price drop

16.9%

2.9 ppts

0.2 ppts

Share of homes sold above final list price

23.9%

-1.7 ppts

2.7 ppts

Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio

98.4%

-0.2 ppts

0.5 ppts

Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales

14.2%

-1.5 ppts

0.9 ppts

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

6.64%

-0.18 ppts

0.37 ppts

Metro-Level Highlights: January 2024

  • Pending sales: In Las Vegas, pending sales rose 43.4% year over year, more than any other metro Redfin analyzed. Next came Stockton, CA (40.9%) and Raleigh, NC (38.5%). Pending sales fell most in Cincinnati (-19.7%), Grand Rapids, MI (-16.2%) and Tulsa, OK (-11.9%).
  • Closed sales: Closed sales rose most in Stockton (27.9%), San Jose, CA (19.9%) and Salt Lake City (18.1%). They fell most in Camden, NJ (-16.5%), Jacksonville, FL (-13.7%) and Buffalo, NY (-11.2%).
  • Prices: Median sale prices rose most from a year earlier in Camden (14.3%), Miami (13.8%) and Knoxville, TN (13.6%). They fell in five metros, with the biggest declines in San Antonio (-4.9%), Austin, TX (-4.4%) and Memphis (-3.9%).
  • New listings: New listings rose most from a year earlier in North Port, FL (31.9%), McAllen, TX (29.6%) and Fort Lauderdale, FL (27.1%). They fell most in Grand Rapids (-21.9%), Lake County, IL (-19.9%) and Kansas City, MO (-16.3%).
  • Overall supply: Active listings increased fastest in Cape Coral, FL (57.9%), North Port (44.9%) and McAllen (24.2%). They decreased fastest in Raleigh (-28.5%), Las Vegas (-24.8%) and New Brunswick, NJ (-24.1%).
  • Competition: In Rochester, NY, 66.2% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came Newark, NJ (59.7%) and Buffalo (58.1%). The shares were lowest in West Palm Beach, FL (6.8%), North Port (6.8%) and Cape Coral (7.7%).
  • Speed: In Rochester, 70.5% of homes that went under contract did so within two weeks—the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came Seattle (65.7%) and San Jose (62%). The lowest shares were in Chicago (14.7%), Knoxville (16.9%) and Tucson, AZ (17.4%).

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-january-2024

Posted On Sunday, 18 February 2024 06:25 Written by
Posted On Friday, 16 February 2024 14:33

Home prices posted their biggest annual increase in 15 months and mortgage rates rose above 7% this week.

The median U.S. home-sale price rose 6.1% year over year during the four weeks ending February 11, the biggest increase since October 2022. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Mortgage rates are rising, too, exacerbating high prices to drive costs up: Daily average rates are sitting above 7%, up from 6.6% at the beginning of the month.

High costs are one factor keeping would-be homebuyers on the sidelines. Pending home sales are down 7.3% year over year, one of the biggest declines in over four months, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a seasonally adjusted measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents–is down 18%. In addition to high housing costs, several seasonal factors kept some house hunters at home this past week: extreme storms in Southern California, the Lunar New Year and the Super Bowl (none of which are accounted for in the demand index’s seasonal adjustment). Sellers are a bit more active than buyers, with new listings up 8% year over year as some homeowners hope to take advantage of rising prices.

“The Super Bowl is like Groundhog Day for real estate economists; we usually have a read on how the market is shaping up by the beginning of February, and the read this year is that it’s looking sluggish so far, mostly because of stubbornly high mortgage rates,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “This week’s hotter-than-expected inflation report confirms that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates next month, which means mortgage rates will stay near 7% for now. Activity should pick up a bit in the spring, partly because it’ll be selling season and partly because people are getting more and more accustomed to elevated rates. We expect mortgage rates to start declining later in the spring as inflation eases and the Fed finally starts cutting interest rates.”

Christine Kooiker, a Redfin Premier agent in Grand Rapids, MI, said she’s encouraging homeowners who are thinking about selling to list soon.

“A lot of sellers want to wait until spring, but I’m telling people to consider listing in the next few weeks because even though demand is fairly slow, there’s hardly anything else on the market,” Kooiker said. “Buyers may want to act sooner rather than later, too, because prices will continue to go up. I have a few clients who waited to make an offer, or made an offer that was too low, and now they regret it because a house they love got snatched up.”

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity

 

Value (if applicable)

Recent change

Year-over-year change

Source

Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.09% (Feb. 14)

Up from 6.75% a week earlier

Up from 6.54%

Mortgage News Daily

Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

6.64% (week ending Feb. 8)

Near lowest level since May

Up from 6.12%

Freddie Mac

Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)

 

Down 3% from a week earlier; up 1% from a month earlier (as of week ending Feb. 9)

Down 12%

Mortgage Bankers Association

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)

 

Down about 6% from a week earlier (as of week ending Feb. 11)

Down 18%

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents

Google searches for “home for sale”

 

Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of Feb. 10)

Down 11%

Google Trends

Touring activity

 

Up 14% from the start of the year (as of Feb. 12)

At this time last year, it was up 10% from the start of 2023

ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending February 11, 2024

Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.

 

Four weeks ending February 11, 2024

Year-over-year change

Notes

Median sale price

$362,725

6.1%

Biggest increase since Oct. 2022

Median asking price

$395,850

6.3%

 

Median monthly mortgage payment

$2,608 at a 6.64% mortgage rate

9.1%

Down roughly $110 from all-time high set in October 2023, but up roughly $250 from the four weeks ending Dec. 31

Pending sales

72,221

-7.3%

Biggest decline since October 2023 (with the exception of the prior 4-week period, when there was a 7.4% decline)

New listings

73,214

8%

 

Active listings

751,411

-2.5%

 

Months of supply

4.2 months

+0.1 pt.

4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.

Share of homes off market in two weeks

35.3%

Up from 34%

 

Median days on market

50

-2 days

 

Share of homes sold above list price

22.5%

Up from 20%

 

Share of homes with a price drop

5.6%

+1.1 pts.

 

Average sale-to-list price ratio

98.2%

+0.5 pts.

 

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending February 11, 2024

Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.

 

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases

Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases

Notes

Median sale price

Newark, NJ (14%)

New Brunswick, NJ (13.8%)

Miami (13.2%)

Anaheim, CA (12.8%)

Warren, MI (12%)

San Antonio, TX (-5.2%)

Austin, TX (-1.4%)

Fort Worth, TX (-0.7%)

Declined in 3 metros

Pending sales

San Jose, CA (9%)

Cleveland, OH (2%)

San Francisco (1.9%)

Portland, OR (-31.3%)

San Antonio, TX (-28.4%)

Warren, MI (-24.2%)

Nashville, TN (-21.8%)

New Brunswick, TN (-20.1%)

Increased in 3 metros

New listings

Dallas, TX (28.6%)

Jacksonville, FL (28.4%)

Fort Lauderdale, FL (26.7%)

Miami (25.6%)

Tampa, FL (19.6%)

Milwaukee, WI (-13.5%)

Atlanta (-13.3%)

Chicago (-11.9%)

Portland, OR (- 11.7%)

Nashville, TN (-7.4%)

Declined in 12 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-prices-mortgage-rates-rise

Posted On Friday, 16 February 2024 08:02 Written by

MCLEAN, Va., Feb. 15, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.77 percent.

"On the heels of consumer prices rising more than expected, mortgage rates increased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The economy has been performing well so far this year and rates may stay higher for longer, potentially slowing the spring homebuying season. According to our data, mortgage applications to buy a home so far in 2024 are down in more than half of all states compared to a year earlier.”

News Facts

  • The 30-year FRM averaged 6.77 percent as of February 15, 2024, up from last week when it averaged 6.64 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.32 percent.
  • The 15-year FRM averaged 6.12 percent, up from last week when it averaged 5.90 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.51 percent.

The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. For more information, view our Frequently Asked Questions.

Freddie Mac’s mission is to make home possible for families across the nation. We promote liquidity, stability, affordability and equity in the housing market throughout all economic cycles. Since 1970, we have helped tens of millions of families buy, rent or keep their home. Learn More: Website

Posted On Friday, 16 February 2024 07:58 Written by
Posted On Thursday, 15 February 2024 14:02
Posted On Thursday, 15 February 2024 13:35
Posted On Thursday, 15 February 2024 10:53

Overall, investor home purchases dropped 11% from a year earlier, the smallest decline since they began falling in 2022

Real estate investors bought 26.1% of low-priced U.S. homes that sold in the fourth quarter, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s the highest share on record and is up from 24% a year earlier. By comparison, investors purchased 13.6% of mid-priced homes that sold (vs 14.3% a year earlier) and 15.9% of high-priced homes that sold (vs 15.4% a year earlier).

Investors are drawn to affordable homes for the same reason as other homebuyers: They cost less, which is especially attractive when home prices and borrowing costs remain elevated. And when housing affordability is this strained, there could be more potential for value increases in the lower price tier, meaning more potential for building equity.

For its analysis, Redfin determined the three price tiers by dividing home purchases into three buckets: low-priced, mid-priced and high-priced. Low-priced homes are those that fall into the bottom tercile of local sale prices, while mid-priced are those in the middle tercile and high-priced are those in the top tercile.

Low-priced homes made up 46.5% of all investor purchases in the fourth quarter (vs 47.2% a year earlier), while mid-priced homes made up 24.6% (vs 26.4% a year earlier) and high-priced homes represented 28.8% (vs 26.5% a year earlier).

“I get tons of emails every day from investors looking for properties, but of course, they only want homes that are under market value, which are hard to come by. When they find those properties, they pile in,” said Carrie Caruthers, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Riverside County, CA. “I’ve recently seen an uptick in foreclosures, which investors are interested in because they often sell at a discount. I just sold one foreclosed house to an investor for $400,000. It probably would’ve sold for around $500,000 if it hadn’t been a foreclosure, but the investor got a deal because foreclosure purchases come with risks.”

Overall Investor Home Purchases Dropped 11% in the Fourth Quarter

Investor purchases of U.S. homes fell 10.5% year over year in the fourth quarter to 46,419—the lowest fourth-quarter level since 2016. Overall U.S. home purchases posted a slightly larger decline, falling 12.2% to 251,462—the lowest fourth-quarter level since 2012.

Investor home purchases have fallen in part because high interest rates, elevated home prices and a sluggish rental market have made investing less lucrative. Some investors have shifted their money into other investments that offer good returns and lower risk, such as Treasury bonds. But Redfin agents in both California and Florida said many investors are still hungry for homes.

“There are a lot of investors out there fighting for properties,” said Juan Castro, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Orlando, FL, which posted the third largest drop in investor purchases in the country last quarter. “There just aren’t enough properties to go around, which is putting a cap on how many homes investors can buy.”

The total supply of homes for sale in the U.S. fell 5.1% year over year in December and remained far below pre-pandemic levels as most homeowners stayed put to avoid losing the rock-bottom mortgage rate they scored during the pandemic.

The typical home purchased by investors in the fourth quarter cost $453,271, up slightly from $426,573 a year earlier, as U.S. home prices ticked up. Overall, investors bought $32.3 billion worth of U.S. homes, down just slightly from $33.6 billion a year earlier.

Investors Purchases Didn’t Fall Nearly as Fast as They Did Last Year

The 10.5% drop in investor home purchases in the fourth quarter marks the sixth straight year-over-year decline. But that pales in comparison to the 44.1% drop of a year earlier and represents the smallest decrease since investor purchases started falling in the third quarter of 2022.

The decline in investor purchases has eased as the shock of elevated mortgage rates has subsided and the U.S. economy has proven to be more resilient than many expected.

“It’s too early to say that investor purchases have hit a bottom, but they’re unlikely to shoot up like they did during the pandemic anytime soon,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “That’s because borrowing costs and home prices remain high, the number of homes available to buy remains low and rents remain lackluster. If the Fed cuts interest rates later this year as expected, we may see more investors wade into the housing market.”

Investors Bought Nearly 1 of Every 5 Homes That Sold in the Fourth Quarter

Investors bought 18.5% of U.S. homes that sold in the fourth quarter, up from 18.1% a year earlier. Their market share likely rose slightly because they didn’t retreat as quickly as individual buyers.

Single-Family Homes Represented Over Two-Thirds of Investor Purchases

Single-family homes represented 68.6% of investor purchases in the fourth quarter (vs 68.8% a year earlier). Condos/co-ops made up the second largest share (19.2% vs 17.9% a year earlier), followed by townhouses (7.1% vs 8% a year earlier) and multifamily properties (5.1% vs 5.3% a year earlier).

Metro-Level Highlights: Q4 2023 Investor Activity

Where investor purchases increased/decreased most from a year earlier:

  • Biggest increases: Riverside, CA (+25%), Chicago (+20.9%), San Jose, CA (+18%)
  • Biggest decreases: Cincinnati (-28.8%), Providence, RI (-27.7%), Orlando, FL (-26.5%)

Where investors bought the highest/lowest share of homes that sold:

  • Highest share: In Miami, investors bought 31.5% of homes that sold. Next came Jacksonville, FL (25.6%) and Anaheim, CA (25.5%).
  • Lowest share: Providence, RI (9.9%), Warren, MI (10.1%), Montgomery County, PA (10.2%).

Where the share of homes bought by investors increased/decreased most from a year earlier:

  • Biggest increases: In Sacramento, CA, investors bought 21.5% of homes that sold, up 4.6 percentage points from a year earlier. Next came San Diego (+4.6 ppts) and Riverside (+4.3 ppts).
  • Biggest decreases: Atlanta (-3 ppts), Orlando (-2.7 ppts), Miami (-2.5 ppts).

To view the full report, including charts and additional metro-level data, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-q4-2023

Posted On Thursday, 15 February 2024 06:15 Written by
Posted On Wednesday, 14 February 2024 13:42
Posted On Wednesday, 14 February 2024 10:04
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