The Fed raised interest rates on Thursday by 50 basis points and signaled a reduction in the Fed balance sheet. While it was a good start in heading where they need to go, it’s about a year late! As expected, the bond market is happy with the announcement and while there may be some continued volatility with the unemployment data and Friday’s jobs report, I think this is a sign that the bond market will see how things progress before running up any higher.

Purchase applications are off a little more than 10% year over year, but stronger than they were last week. Even refinances went up a little week over week but are just about a third of what they were last year. So that was the news.

Here is the nonsense. Layoffs continue throughout the industry as those lenders who were pounding refinances last year are having to cut deeply as those losses will never be made up. The fact that some of these lenders AND so called “industry experts” are saying the reason for the layoffs is the slowing of the housing markets. That is complete and total NONSENSE! While purchase business isn’t as robust as it was last year, purchase business is still strong. You don’t layoff 30% - 40% -50% or more of your employees because purchase business is off 10%; you do so because your company hired people and pounded refinances, and now that business has gone back to a much more “normal” level.

There are still more buyers than sellers in this market. Prices are going to ease, but all the talk of a “Housing Bubble” is once again, NONSENSE! Prices may not rise as fast as they were, but until we have more sellers and less buyers, prices are not coming down. Especially given how HOT the rental markets are! You want to identify a potential slowing of the housing market? Watch for RENTS to start coming down. Until then, do the work and keep your clients in the best possible position to win their deal!

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has been called a bully by members of the press for his actions against Ukraine. He is much worse than that. His destruction of land and buildings and more importantly the deaths of thousands of lives go way beyond that of bullying. Makes one wonder what Putin’s behavior was like as a youth. Was he a bully as a kid or perhaps was he a victim of bullying?

Now don’t get ahead of me. I have not changed the TunneySide from a sports column to one of a political nature. I never appreciated bullies in school and furthermore did all I could as a teacher or coach or principal to correct young people who displayed that type of behavior. What brings this to mind is that now that the pandemic has lessened, and kids are returning to classrooms and playgrounds, more interaction among students will be taking place.

As a kid, I faced bullying on the playground. Here’s one episode (of several) that helped me stand up to bullying. You might remember that my father was a playground director (one of several jobs he held) and supplied me with sports equipment as a youth. When we chose up sides on the playground, I always was chosen. “Aw, we gotta let Tunney play, it’s his ball.”

One day when I was about 9, skinny and rather shy, I returned home for dinner after an afternoon on the playground but – without my basketball. My dad asked where my basketball was, and I said the group I was playing with wouldn’t give it back to me. Dad said where are they? I said down our street about  4 houses. Dad said let’s go. We walked to where several were standing. When we got there, dad said to me, “Which one do you want to fight?” Fight? I didn’t want to fight anyone. But I pointed to Jack Bates, who was holding my basketball. We traded about 4-5 punches. Then dad said that’s enough. I took my basketball and we walked back home.

Dad had grown up without a father and had to fight his way through his youth. He taught me a valuable lesson that I’ve never forgotten: Have the courage to stand up and face what confronts you! It has served me well in my role as a student, teacher, principal, and sports official.

Will you use your courage to overcome challenges you or others might face?

As social media continues to scream about how bad the housing market is, how interest rates are going to cause the next housing bubble, and the list goes on an on. I feel the pain of those trying to tell the truth and explain the reality. The good news is, the reality, while not as good as it once was, is still better than most people would have you believe, especially when you compare all the information.

Interest rates are higher and so are home prices. While many believe higher rates will force down home prices, you need to be aware that it may only slow the GAIN in home prices. Demand remains very high. Rents are still going higher which also puts pressure on the housing market. We are also dealing with availability. There is far more demand for housing than there is housing available. New construction of homes and rental units remains far behind the surge in population and the demand for space. This demand is very real, and likely to grow significantly in the months to come.

For mortgage professionals that were dealing with large numbers of refinances, their business is likely off significantly as refinance volume returns to much more “normal” levels. While purchase business in units is behind this time last year, we are still on pace to do as much, or more, resale purchase business as we did in every year from 2006 to 2020! With prices growing higher, you may see total purchase volume be close to what it was last year. So, for those focused on purchase business, things are good, and for some, their market share is growing as they are in high demand because they are trusted.

What keeps winning is SPEED! What keeps winning is ACURACY! What keeps winning is exceptional communication and client experience. A great originator can’t lower rates or prices, but they can provide information and options for their clients to win their offers and to quickly close on that offer! This is what is winning!

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