Sunday, 21 July 2019
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Ventura County Home Prices Rising

Written by Posted On Tuesday, 09 July 2019 08:13

Welcome to my real estate year in review for Ventura County! I hope you find this information useful and thought provoking as our local market often defies the trends happening nationwide. Most of you understand that real estate is changing nationwide. Homes are taking longer to sell, prices in many markets are weakening and buyers are no longer automatically writing offers for full list price.

I recently read an article in the Ventura County Star which stated that home sales dropped from October to November about 18.5% and sale prices dropped 3.4% from October to November. These numbers are all based on research done by CoreLogic data – an Irvine based research firm. The obvious inference from this article is that our market is plunging.     Not true.

The 27 Dec’18 issue of the Ventura County Star fails to explain that our market is cyclic. We see seasonal changes in price and number of sales and cumulative days needed to sell. If you look back the last 5 years, you will see the same basic annual trends. Home prices are rising.

The market starts each year with a little uncertainty, finds its feet, and as Spring approaches, more homes come to market. Home prices gradually increase, sale times shorten and these trends peak between June and September. Our market loses some steam in the late Fall, with continued weakening during the holiday season. I have MLS performance charts for each of the last 5 years that reflect this same cycle.

Many long time residents saw our real estate market peak in 2006 and dive sharply downwards to the point where it contributed to our failed national economy in 2008. We saw the beginning of the local market recovery roughly in 2012. We still have some short sales, foreclosures and bankruptcy sales, but nothing like we had a few years ago. What we see now are more and more signs of a stronger economy monitored by the Fed to prevent runaway inflation. This governmental oversight translates into higher home mortgage interest rates.

Home mortgage interest rates were below 3.5% just a little over a year ago. Rates peaked close to 5.0% earlier this year and currently are close to 4.5% for a normal 30 year fixed rate mortgage . Rates are expected to increase again this year - 2019.      None of this is news.

What I would like to share with you is the Ventura County Real Estate Market measured each of the last five years from Jan – Dec and with the real results to help separate hype from reality.

Here is some of what I’ve found…

Ventura County has seen consistent home price increases over the last 5 years.

The median home price in Dec 2014 was $479,000 – up 7.6% from the previous year

The median home price in Dec 2015 was $512,000 – up 6.9% from the previous year

The median in 2016 was $539,000 – up 5.3%

The median in 2017 was $570,000 – up 5.7%

The median in 2018 was $599,000 – up 5.1%

The total five year increase in median home prices for Ventura County reached just over 30%!                              

The average cumulative time in the MLS measures how quickly homes are selling. Shorter times indicate a stronger market. That time measured in the month of Dec of 2014 was 98 days, following in annual order - 93 days, 91 days, 81 days and finally 83 days for this last Dec 2018. So by this measurement, our market is stronger than 2014, 15 or 16 and nearly the same as 2017.

Of the 10 largest towns in Ventura County, five of them - Camarillo (5.2%), Oxnard (5.2%), Simi Valley (5.4%), Ventura (8.3%), and Port Hueneme (9.4%) all topped out at over a 5% increase in home values for 2018!  

Consistent long term increases in Ventura County home prices reflect strong buyer demand, our 2018 annual home price increase above 5% in much of the county gives definition to this strength and finally, the reduction in sale time over the last five years adds a time dimension to the strength of this remarkable market.

So, actual market data examined in a longer annual perspective, show the Ventura County Real Estate Market is not plunging; our market is doing just fine.

Mark Thorngren

Contact me for real market information on your town or home.    (805) 443-3366     or     This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The Omni Group - 3635 W 5th St • Oxnard, CA 93030 • Cal BRE# 01413932                        

Like me at: Mark Thorngren – The Omni Group

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