Is the Housing Boom Over?

Written by Ashley Sutphin Posted On Monday, 02 August 2021 00:00

From May to June 2021, pending sales on existing homes have gone down almost 2%.

Analysts say this could signal that the pandemic housing boom is coming to an end.

New data released by the National Association of Realtors found that pending sales from May to June not only dropped, but sales were also down by 1.9% compared to June 2020.

In May 2021, there was a 17% increase in home prices compared to May 2020, which was the most significant yearly gain on record.

The price increase likely supports the theory that the performance in the housing market is driven by buyers moving from apartments in urban areas to suburban homes.

The sale of newly built homes fell by 6% in June and 20% year-over-year.

Low inventory led to the enormous price increase, but that may be shifting as well because there was a 5.5% increase in the number of newly listed homes in June compared to last year.

Lawrence Yun, Realtors’ chief economist, released a statement saying that pending sales have fluctuated since January, showing the market might be at a turning point. He went on to say that buyers still want to own a home, but the record-high prices are causing hesitation.

George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com, said that while prices are at record highs and mortgage rates are still near record lows, sellers still see conditions as favorable.

Mortgage rates went slightly higher at the beginning of June, which increased the issue with affordability. Rates came down again by the end of June, but Yun predicts that rates will go up more steadily toward the end of the year. That could lead to declines in demand and lower price appreciation.

Sales of newly built homes fell in June, going down 6% for the month and almost 20% year-over-year.

Another factor that some analysts see as playing a role in the cooling of the market is that homebuilders are facing a lot of delays in their ability to finish homes.

Over the next couple of months, we’ll get a better picture of whether the market is saturated. Prices may bottom out or they could go back up.

If the market is saturated, that means everyone who needs a home has purchased one, and prices could start to decline fairly quickly.

However, if the demand is being limited by high, inflated prices, then the housing market could soar once again once the prices come down off highs.

Regionally, pending sales in the south fell 3% monthly and 4.7% from June of last year. Sales in the west went down 3.8% monthly, and annually, 2.6%. In the Midwest, sales went up 0.6% monthly but were down 2.4% annually.

To sum it all up, a lot of what’s going to happen over the coming months is going to vary depending on inventory, how the pandemic continues to play out across the country, and also what happens with interest rates as we move toward the end of the year.

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