Last week we spoke about the limited time left to get deals in that will close and get you paid this year. It is part of the overall business planning process I work my people through so they can close out the year strong and be building into the next year as they complete the current year. Last week we looked at where our opportunities have come from this year. We also were looking into how many files were completed, scheduled to close, under contract, as well as the total number of preapprovals we have in our queue, both active and dormant.
This week we need to take a good look at where those opportunities are coming from this past year, the past six months, and the past three months. Referral partners can ebb and flow with opportunities, sometimes it’s just the way things go, but other times there are real reasons they have increased or declined in those opportunities. We also want to look at our own activities from both consumer direct and the marketing efforts of our own databases. What have we done? When did we do it? What was the return for having done it? How long did it take to see a return?
This information may or may not be surprising, but likely there are a few things you can learn from this exercise that can lead making a push at those kinds of activities again before the year ends; or know that these things are valuable to our annual efforts, or maybe need to be replaced? The data is what the data is; you need to make choices based upon what you have done in your market, and to track the results to either keep, adjust, or replace that activity!
We also have seen the markets trying to digest the jobs report from last week, war in the Middle East, the inflation reports from both yesterday and this morning, along with this week’s initial jobless claims and continuing claims. All these things can cause reactions in the markets and impact mortgage rates both up and down. You need to be aware of these things as they happen so you can answer questions your clients and referral partners ask you.
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We have all heard that the key to becoming a successful business is effective communication and collaboration, but do we really know what that means? Unfortunately for many business leaders, they believe they do. But the reality is they actually struggle with the concept.
Back in 2013, the CEO of Yahoo! announced via memo that employees would no longer be able to work remotely and must come back into the office from Monday through Friday. Revoking the remote environment was done under the assumption that getting employees back in the office would increase collaboration and company culture.
However, the plan backfired. Instead of it boosting morale, employees felt pressure to either quit if they wanted to continue working remotely or relocate if they wanted to keep their job. As a result, the entire company suffered due to its leadership’s poor communication technique.
The thing about communication and collaboration is that they are closely intertwined — you cannot have one without the other. To build a stronger team and an overall stronger company, business leaders need to begin with fostering a culture of effective communication. Once you have communication, you are more likely to build the trust that allows collaboration to thrive.
Benefit from Communication
There are many challenges that affect efficient teamwork: the absence of team identity, inability to resolve conflicts, lack of participation, lack of creativity, difficulty making decisions, and the unwillingness or inability to consider alternative ideas or approaches. When you break these challenges down to their building blocks, they all tend to stem from one core weakness: the inability to communicate and do so effectively.
Communicating involves far more than just informing others. This is a concept that many business leaders tend to misunderstand. To inform is to be static, where information is passed along from one person to another without much interaction. It is a one-way conversation.
On the other hand, effective communication flows in both directions as a dynamic, two-way conversation. It leads to enhanced engagement as you hear as much as you speak. Teams that foster a culture of effective communication receive different perspectives, gain alternative answers to obstacles, and can make better decisions that lead to better results.
As a team leader, it is your responsibility to ensure that all perspectives of your team are heard and considered. When you do this, your team will feel as though they have been listened to and be more inclined to offer up ideas. This creates a stronger and more engaged unit that can then build a bridge to a world of positive disruption from the inside out.
Communication Leads to Collaboration Instead of Cooperation
Many organizations fail to differentiate between collaboration and cooperation. These two things are drastically different.
Cooperation, whether it be by a business leader or an entry-level employee, is actually a principle based on scarcity. People cooperate because they have to, because they see themselves as a lone individual who needs to defend their share of the economic pie instead of as a part of a unified whole who all benefit from decisions made.
While cooperation is a lonely environment that lacks team identity, collaboration is a principle based in abundance. People collaborate because they want to, not because they have to, and because they see the opportunity a leader sees. They understand that by working together as a team, they can create a bigger economic pie that benefits all. To collaborate is to be inclusive and expansive.
Is putting the focus on collaboration as opposed to cooperation difficult? It can be, but it is all tied to effective communication. When you are simply informing, you are limiting interaction to being one-sided. Yahoo! telling employees to come back to the office “or else” without any alternative perspective is making them cooperate and thus leading them to believe there is no team mentality there.
But when you are communicating, you are encouraging a collaborative environment where everyone is working toward the same end that will lead to abundance for all. Yahoo! giving employees the option to stay remote if, based on research, their productivity was through the roof would only lead to innovation and progress for their department and the organization overall.
Going Beyond Internal: The Ripple Effect of External Communication and Collaboration
With effective communication that leads to collaboration, the benefits can and will go beyond the department, the organization, or even the industry. Believe it or not, you can and should collaborate with those whom you perceive to be your competition as well!
With powerful strategic alliances come pooled resources, shared skill, and creativity for either greater profit for all or for the greater good. This makes your organization move into a realm of significance rather than simple success, a mindset that gives you longevity.
We often see organizations and brands coming together to form new products and services to bring to the marketplace. Frito-Lay and Taco Bell formed the Doritos Locos Taco in 2012. Taco Bell hired 15,000 employees just to keep up with demand for that specific product! Even GM and Ford are currently collaborating to bring a new automated transmission for increased vehicle performance and fuel economy to the marketplace.
Rooted in more than just financial gain, collaboration efforts can also be focused on the greater good of society. During the coronavirus pandemic, Google and Apple joined forces to produce contact-tracing technology that notifies users when they have been in contact with someone who has been infected with COVID-19, in an effort to reduce exposure risk.
While typically, businesses are in fierce competition with others in their industry, protecting their vested interests, their customers, and their market share, it is important to evaluate them for not just how you can stay ahead of the game, but also for how you can benefit from strategic collaboration and working together.
Whether you are trying to better communicate and collaborate with team members internally or outside of your industry, it is always important to lead by example. Set your tone as an active listener. Use your body language, your tone of voice, and your words appropriately. Ask for input, ask for ideas, and encourage discussion. Also, do not be afraid to ask for contradictory opinions.
Once the communication channels are open, collaboration will inevitably follow, and there will be so much room for innovation with a united Futureview®!
According to a recent Redfin report: New listings have inched up this fall, giving the buyers who remain in the market a few more homes to choose from. But many buyers are retreating as mortgage rates stay elevated.
New listings of U.S. homes for sale have ticked up 2% since the start of September, and listings haven’t fallen as much from summer to fall as they typically do. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
What home sellers are doing: A few more homeowners are putting their homes on the market, despite being locked into relatively low mortgage rates. The total number of homes for sale is down 14% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending October 8, but that’s the smallest decline since July.
Advice for sellers: Take advantage of still-rising prices; the median sale price is up 3% year over year despite low demand. But with the share of for-sale homes with a price drop at its highest level in nearly a year and high mortgage rates cutting into buyers’ budgets, be mindful of setting a fair price. Redfin agents in some parts of the country report that many move-in ready, fairly priced homes are selling quickly.
What homebuyers are doing: Retreating as mortgage rates sit near their highest level in more than two decades and the median U.S. monthly mortgage payment approaches $3,000. Mortgage-purchase applications inched up slightly this week, but they’re still near their lowest level in nearly 30 years, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—which measures tour requests and other early-stage demand signals—dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year.
Advice for buyers: All hope is not lost for people who want to buy a home soon. Even though mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated, buyers on the fence may consider jumping into the market when there’s a small reprieve: Along with the small uptick in new listings to choose from, daily average rates have come down some from the peak they reached last week. “Despite last week’s hotter-than-expected jobs report, rates have fallen after the Fed signaled this week that it is unlikely to hike interest rates again and war broke out in Israel,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Buyers should also remember that the average mortgage rate in the news is just that: an average. Many buyers can secure a lower rate by shopping around; the difference between rates among lenders is bigger when rates are higher. Buying down a mortgage rate is always an option, too.”
Leading indicators
|
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
|
|
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
7.6% (Oct. 11) |
Down from last week’s two-decade peak of 7.81% |
Up from 7.1% |
Mortgage News Daily |
|
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
7.49% (week ending Oct. 5) |
Highest level in over 2 decades |
Up from 6.7% |
Freddie Mac |
|
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
Up 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending Oct. 6) |
Down 19% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
|
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
Down slightly from a month earlier (as of the 4 weeks ending Oct. 8) to its lowest level in nearly a year |
Down 5% |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
|
|
Google searches for “home for sale” |
Down 12% from a month earlier (as of Oct. 7) |
Down 12% |
Google Trends |
|
Key housing-market data
|
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending October 8, 2023 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
|||
|
Four weeks ending October 8, 2023 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
$370,000 |
2.7% |
Prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year |
|
Median asking price |
$388,223 |
5.2% |
Biggest increase in a year |
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,736 at a 7.49% mortgage rate |
10% |
Just shy of the all-time high set a week earlier |
|
Pending sales |
73,943 |
-11.6% |
|
|
New listings |
81,964 |
-3.9% |
Smallest decline since July 2022, in part because new listings fell rapidly at this time in 2022 |
|
Active listings |
827,406 |
-14% |
Tied with the previous week for smallest decline in four months |
|
Months of supply |
3.2 months |
+0.2 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
|
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
39.5% |
Up from 36% |
|
|
Median days on market |
32 |
-2 days |
|
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
30.7% |
Up from 30% |
|
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
6.8% |
+0.2 pts. |
Highest level in a year |
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
99.3% |
+0.3 pts. |
|
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending October 8, 2023 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
|||
|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year declines |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
Anaheim, CA (13.5%) San Jose, CA (11%) New Brunswick, NJ (10.5%) Providence, RI (10.2%) West Palm Beach, FL (9.9%) |
Austin, TX (-4.1%) San Antonio, TX (-2.5%) Houston, TX (-2.1%) Las Vegas (-0.9%) Dallas, TX (-0.6%) Fort Worth, TX (-0.5%) Phoenix (-0.4%) New York, NY (-0.4%) Portland, OR (-0.4%) |
Declined in 9 metros (in 6 of those metros, the decline was smaller that 1%) |
|
Pending sales |
West Palm Beach, FL (7.7%) Orlando, FL (5.5%) San Jose, CA (4.3%) |
New Brunswick, NY (-32.9%) New York (-32.9%) Portland, OR (-24.6%) Atlanta (-20.8%) Providence, RI (-20.7%) |
Declined in all but 3 metros |
|
New listings |
West Palm Beach, FL (17%) Orlando, FL (16%) Miami, FL (14.8%) Jacksonville, FL (11.3%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (10.2%) |
Atlanta (-26.9%) Anaheim, CA (-14.5%) Portland, OR (-13.5%) Newark, NJ (-13,4%) Seattle (-12.8%) |
Declined in all but 10 metros. 5 biggest increases all in Florida. |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-tick-up
Joint proposal would reduce spread between mortgage rates, Treasury bonds
The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA), Community Home Lenders of America, and National Association of REALTORS today proposed a solution to reduce historically high long-term mortgage rates relative to long-term Treasury bonds. The groups’ plan would reduce the historically large spread between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasuries to promote homeownership affordability.
“With housing accounting for nearly 20% of the nation’s gross domestic product and affecting homeowners and renters nationwide, policymakers must act to promote housing affordability,” ICBA President and CEO Rebeca Romero Rainey said today. “ICBA and the nation’s community banks call on the administration to implement our plan to address lending challenges and mortgage-servicing impediments, which could support demand for mortgage-backed securities and reduce mortgage rates by an estimated 100 to 150 basis points.”
With the combination of high mortgage rates and low housing construction leading to historically unaffordable housing and hampering mortgage lending, the groups issued a joint letter to the White House and Treasury Department urging:
- The Federal Reserve to maintain its stock of mortgage-backed securities and to suspend further runoff until liquidity and the spread between the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and 10-year Treasury stabilize.
- The Treasury Department to amend the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements to enable the enterprises to temporarily purchase their own and Ginnie Mae’s mortgage-backed securities.
ICBA will continue working with policymakers to help ease nationwide housing affordability challenges to promote affordable housing for American homebuyers.
The median U.S. asking rent was little changed from a year earlier for the sixth straight month as an increase in the number of rentals made it harder for landlords to boost prices
The median U.S. asking rent rose 0.4% year over year to $2,011 in September—the sixth straight month in which rents were little changed from a year earlier. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Prior to that, rent growth had been slowing rapidly for roughly a year, coming back down to earth after a surge in prices during the pandemic.
The median asking rent fell 2% from a month earlier in September.
“Rents have flattened because a boom in apartment building in recent years has flooded the market with supply, but they haven’t yet posted a substantial decline because there’s still demand for rentals—especially as high mortgage rates keep many would-be homebuyers and sellers on the sidelines,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “There are still a lot of apartments under construction that will continue to hit the market, which should keep rents from increasing much in the near-to-medium term. But construction has started to slow, which should eventually help bolster rent prices.”
The Number of New Apartments Hitting the Market Continues to Rise—But Construction Has Started to Slow
The number of completed apartment buildings in the U.S. rose 32% year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 in August, the most recent month for which data is available. But the number of apartment buildings on which construction has started declined 41% year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 334,000. Building starts are a leading indicator of what’s happening in the housing market, whereas building completions are a lagging indicator.
Building may be slowing, but landlords are still facing more competition than they’re used to as new rentals continue to hit the market. Sometimes, their competition is an individual homeowner who’s renting their home out instead of selling—either because they don’t want to lose their low mortgage rate, they didn’t get a good offer, or both.
“Last year, conversations with home sellers were hard. I had a lot of discussions about how they needed to lower their price expectations because the market had turned,” said David Palmer, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Seattle. “But this year, they have a better understanding of the market. We’re now having the property management conversation earlier: ‘Do you have a rental plan if we can’t sell your home?’”
As rising rental supply leads to rising vacancies, some landlords are handing out concessions, such as a free month’s rent, to attract tenants without having to lower asking rents on paper.
That’s good news for renters at a time when the median asking rent is still just 2.1% ($43) below its record high.
The jump in supply isn’t the only factor that has caused rents to flatten; slowing household formation, economic uncertainty and affordability challenges have also contributed.
Rents Rise in the Midwest, Fall in the West
In the Midwest, the median asking rent rose 5% year over year to a record $1,436. There was also an increase in the Northeast, where the median asking rent climbed 3.1% to $2,482. Asking rents fell 1.6% to $2,413 in the West and declined 0.3% to $1,653 in the South.
The rental market has softened substantially in the West and South in part because those markets saw outsized rent growth during the pandemic. Rents skyrocketed as people flooded into Sun Belt cities including Phoenix, Miami and Dallas. But once the rental boom in those regions cooled, prices had relatively more room to fall. Apartment construction in the Sun Belt has also been especially robust, contributing to the cooldown in rents. In the West, tech layoffs have likely contributed to the region’s sluggish rental market.
While rents in the West and South have been cooling, these regions’ rental markets have started to stabilize in recent months as the impact of the pandemic price boom moves further into the rearview mirror and layoffs ease.
To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-rental-report-september-2023
We design products and services with the intention of fulfilling distinct customer needs or catering to niche requirements. But as technology advances and customer needs change, we need to find new ways to tap into the ever-changing market in innovative ways. This does not have to mean we change our products entirely. It may just mean reinventing and redefining the product as well as our selling techniques to accommodate the changing industry and landscape of customer needs.
The way to increase sales and your bottom line is not to completely scrap your product and start from scratch. Equally, it is vital to not rest on your laurels and treat it like a cash cow either.
The key is to redefine old technology, systems, services, and products and turn them into future opportunities that appeal to larger audiences, other industries, and the wants and needs of your customers.
It Starts with a Change in Your Mentality
It is understandable that many businesses possess an “either/or” mentality. They feel that everything must be one way or the other, as if business is black and white.
For example, if a manufacturing company believes that a certain system or process that has been trusted for years is suddenly disrupted by some type of new technology, that old system and everything involved with it must be completely irrelevant.
The belief that as life goes on, the products of the past stay in the past and new products must take their place is severely limiting in the arena of innovation. As an Anticipatory Leader, I challenge that, as should you!
A change in your mentality around how to better your sales strategy, increase your bottom line, and foster an innovative culture at your organization actually begins with a “both/and” view as opposed to an “either/or” one. We want to have more to work with than before, as this creates an environment where creative critical thinking knows no bounds!
“Both/and” is a powerful corrective strategy that shifts our mentality from thinking the future will be either one way or the other and shows us that there is room for imagination in innovation, which leads to abundance and sales. Thinking of the past as singular is a limited perspective that does in fact lead to missed future opportunities.
Slack Thrives in a “Both/And” World
Slack is a great example of a company that aimed their sights on a “both/and” mindset to increase sales.
Slack is a powerful tool that allows employees to collaborate and strategize instantaneously for better organization and communication. It is a game changer for business communication, but what is it exactly?
In its most basic form, Slack is a chatroom, and chatrooms have been around since the early 2000s, with a focus on instant communication for friends and family. Are chatrooms still popular today? Not widely, especially with regard to the quantity of texting we do, social media messaging, and even the likes of remote work environments like Basecamp.
But instead of leaving chatrooms in the past as though they are archaic and out of date, Slack adapted the concept and redefined it for a new audience, and in turn, it has become one of the most successful business tools spanning several industries!
Plus, if you consider the concept of instantaneous communication between friends via a chatroom, without that technology and the market for it, there wouldn’t be Slack, Basecamp, and the culture that exists today.
Think Opposite to Find Overlooked Advantage
Your products and services have long had their intended purposes, and for your base customer segment, this purpose may fill their need today. But while you are filling this need, so are your competitors with a similar product or a similar service. There is even the chance and likelihood that they are working on something better.
On some level, this just becomes a battle of affordability. With no differentiating qualities, the only differentiating factor is price, and this is a slippery slope to fall down that does lead to stagnated sales.
But if you want to avoid that sales slump and take competitive advantage away from competitors, becoming the positive disruptor your industry needs, you must ask yourself: What should I do to differentiate and stand above the competition?
If it has become a battle of attrition to the top, it is time for you to go opposite!
To gain insight into what is beneath the surface of your product or service and redefine their capabilities as well as the value you deliver, take note of where everyone else is looking and look in the opposite direction. Then, ask yourself the following questions:
- Could my product aid those in another department?
- Could it do something more or else for my customers?
- Can it impact the effectiveness of the company or another industry in some way?
For instance, augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) are well established in the gaming sector, but we have determined that these two technologies can do so much more!
In recent years, VR has been used as a medical professional training platform. By providing interactive, three-dimensional surgical simulations, it enables students to gain vital knowledge for more accurate diagnoses and improved surgical outcomes. The aerospace industry is also using VR to train pilots with real-life situations for safer and more efficient flights.
The point here is that your product or service can offer far more for more customers than you realize. Part of your roadmap to a redefined sales strategy is through redefining a product or service, a powerful strategy that opens so many doors. Redefine the product, redefine the mentality of your salespeople, and redefine your growth!
Remember That You Are Selling More Than Just a “Thing”
Before leveraging my “both/and principle” and the concept of going opposite to redefine your offerings and sales strategy, let’s shift the focus back to your sales force once more.
One major missed opportunity I find when helping an organization move to an anticipatory mindset that establishes growth is that when asked, many salespeople admit that they get the sale, deliver the product or service, and then wash their hands of the transaction to move on to the next sale.
This is where you actually lose competitive advantage.
Remember, it is always easier to get a new sale from an existing customer than it is to obtain a completely new customer every time. Successful businesses are built on lasting relationships, and lasting relationships are built on trust. Trust is not something that can be automated by any type of disruptive technology, no matter how streamlined it is.
Trust is built by your sales team by learning all they can about the customer and providing streamlined solutions, redefined products or services, and a quality customer experience from start to finish, even if they have been with you since day one. You are not selling a product or service — you are selling an experience. Is it positive? If so, how?
October brings us into the fourth quarter of the year, the last three months to do all the things we set out to achieve. However, given the way our system works, we don’t get paid when we get the client to agree to the sale, we don’t get paid even at the point of sale, we get paid AFTER the transaction closes and sometimes even the second pay period after that transaction closes. What does this mean? Simply put, we have about 65 days left to meet a customer, help qualify that customer, have them find a house, get the offer accepted, go into contract, and then CLOSE, all before December 15th for you to receive that income this year! While all transactions up until December 29th will certainly count to your annual production numbers for 2023, it isn’t likely you will get paid for deals closing after December 15th in 2023.
With just 65 days left, you need to really focus on all the things you need to be doing to take advantage of each of those days. With October also being business planning month, step one in business planning is to identify exactly what you have at hand, what is likely to close, what you have as potential in the pipeline, and what you are going to do each day, to generate opportunities that will help you meet or exceed your income targets for 2023, at the same time building your pipeline for the first quarter of 2024!
The first place to start is to run your numbers!
- What have you already closed?
- What is already scheduled to close?
- How many Pre-approvals are actively looking?
- How many dormant pre-approvals can you rally?
- Where are the next opportunities coming from?
You need to make the most of your time so it’s important to have a plan and build a schedule that helps guide you to the outcome you are willing to work for!
Unemployment and continuing claims numbers today, September Jobs Report on Friday! These reports can move markets, so pay attention! If you have questions or comments, its This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget has lost nearly $40,000 in purchasing power over the last year, as mortgage rates have risen from around 6.5% in October 2022 to nearly 8% today. The glimmer of hope for the housing market: a small September uptick in new listings.
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in more than 20 years this week, pushing homebuyers’ monthly housing payments to all-time highs. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
A buyer on a $3,000 monthly budget, for instance, can afford a $419,000 home with a 7.7% mortgage rate, roughly the daily average on October 4. That buyer has lost $38,000 in purchasing power since last October, when they could have bought a $457,000 home with a 6.6% rate. And by that time, buyers had already lost a significant amount of purchasing power since the start of the year, as mortgage rates doubled throughout 2022: A buyer on a $3,000 budget could have purchased a $595,000 home with the 3.5% rates common at the start of 2022.
In addition to sky-high mortgage rates, rising home prices are cutting into buyers’ budgets. The typical U.S. home sold for $371,000 during the four weeks ending October 1, up 3% from a year earlier. That’s because there aren’t enough homes for sale. High housing costs are pushing demand down, with mortgage-purchase applications dropping to their lowest level in nearly 30 years. But inventory is falling significantly, too, as homeowners hang onto relatively low rates: The total number of homes for sale is down 14%.
Why mortgage rates are rising–again: “There are several reasons why mortgage rates are still climbing,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “The Fed hinted that another interest-rate hike before the end of the year is likely, the latest job market data came in stronger than expected, and the yield curve is steepening as investors prepare for higher rates for longer. Turmoil in Congress isn’t helping, either, as the clash among House Republicans stemming from the narrowly missed government shutdown is causing volatility in stock and bond markets.”
A glimmer of hope for the housing market: More homeowners are listing their homes for sale after months of steady decline. New listings rose 3% in September, and so far this fall listings haven’t declined as much from the summer as they typically do. That may be partly because listings didn’t have much more room to fall—but nonetheless, it’s a glimmer of hope for buyers because it means they have a bit more to choose from and could eventually ease price increases.
Leading indicators
|
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
|
|
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
7.7% (Oct. 4) |
Highest level in over 2 decades |
Up from 6.65% |
Mortgage News Daily |
|
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
7.31% (week ending Sept. 28) |
Highest level in nearly 23 years |
Up from 6.7% |
Freddie Mac |
|
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
Down 6% from a week earlier (as of week ending Sept. 29) |
Down 22% to lowest level in nearly 30 years |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
|
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
Down 3% from a month earlier (as of the 4 weeks ending Oct. 1), close to its lowest level since January |
Down 1% |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
|
|
Google searches for “home for sale” |
Down 9% from a month earlier (as of Sept. 30) |
Down 6% |
Google Trends |
|
Key housing-market data
|
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending October 1, 2023 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
|||
|
Four weeks ending October 1, 2023 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
$370,900 |
2.9% |
Prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year |
|
Median asking price |
$389,950 |
4.6% |
Biggest increase since Oct. 2022 |
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,710 at a 7.31% mortgage rate |
10% |
All-time high |
|
Pending sales |
73,654 |
-12.5% |
|
|
New listings |
83,216 |
-3.4% |
Smallest decline since July 2022, in part because new listings fell rapidly at this time in 2022 |
|
Active listings |
826,882 |
-14% |
|
|
Months of supply |
3.3 months |
+0.2 pts. |
Highest level since March. 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
|
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
39.4% |
Up from 35% |
|
|
Median days on market |
31 |
-2 days |
|
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
31.2% |
Up from 30% |
|
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
6.6% |
+0.2 pts. |
Highest share since November 2022 |
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
99.3% |
+0.2 pts. |
|
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending October 1, 2023 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
|||
|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year declines |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
Anaheim, CA (13%) New Brunswick, NJ (10.6%) Providence, RI (10.5%) Newark, NJ (9.1%) San Jose, CA (9.1%) |
Austin, TX (-4.1%) Houston, TX (-2.8%) San Francisco (-2.1%) San Antonio, TX (-1.5%) Phoenix (-1.3%) Nashville, TN (-1.1%) Las Vegas (-0.8%) Portland, OR (-0.1%) |
Declined in 8 metros |
|
Pending sales |
West Palm Beach, FL (1.8%) |
New York (-31.2%) New Brunswick, NY (-24.1%) Portland, OR (-22.2%) Atlanta (-22.2%) Virginia Beach, VA (-20.3%) |
Declined in all but 1 metro |
|
New listings |
Orlando, FL (14.2%) Jacksonville, FL (10.6%) West Palm Beach, FL (9.4%) Miami (8.1%) San Jose, CA (6.9%) |
Atlanta (-28.3%) Newark, NJ (-17%) Portland, OR (-15.2%) Providence, RI (-14.2%) Chicago (-14%) |
Declined in all but 12 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-soar-new-listings-hold-steady
Leadership and the workforce is at a time of notable metamorphosis as Baby Boomers slowly but surely leave the workforce and the younger generations, including Millennials and Gen Z, bring about a true wave of professional digital transformation.
Given the recent presence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the current landscape of rapid disruption and change, the demand for Anticipatory Leadership is more crucial than ever. It is essential to guide this emerging workforce effectively both in the present and future.
I had the distinct opportunity to speak with a good friend of mine, Mark Sanborn, in a recent Opportunity Hour: Conversations with the Masters. Throughout our discussion, we delved into the transformations that the work landscape has undergone both in the lead-up to and during the pandemic. We also explored strategies for effectively leading the workforce of the future.
With the increasing frequency of global disruptions and the anticipation of more to come, the nature of work is evolving, reshaping our work practices. Mark explores these changes and the actions leaders should take now in his books and articles, his keynote speeches, and in our recent interview.
The Need to Have Intention
A leading concept that is emerging in the professional world today, a subject area that Mark has studied in great detail, is the role that intention plays in successful leadership and fostering a successful and significant organization. Many leaders today are unintentional, or their intentions are not shared clearly throughout the entire organization, which creates a disjointed and unproductive workforce.
Unfortunately, this disjointedness is especially detrimental regarding the multiple generations that currently exist in the workforce, as older generations may not interpret certain directions in the same way younger generations do and vice versa.
In Mark’s latest book, The Intentional Imperative, he calls out intentionality as the irreducible minimum. The need to be crystal clear with your team and take consistent and correct action every day to achieve organizational goals is, without question, a strategic imperative that must not be overlooked. However, intentionality is not something that is left only to the top executives; it must be a shared focus throughout the entire organization and every department.
As profound as the pandemic has been in reshaping the way we work, Mark has identified three essential mandates that every leader must grasp to ensure that their company’s purpose and overall influence remain in harmony. These are not mere recommendations or optional actions; they are absolute necessities! Let’s delve deeper into these imperatives:
Imperative 1: Shift from Structure to Culture
It was not an org chart or strict discipline that got workers through the coronavirus pandemic, it was a culture of banding together and working together. It was the focus on values, common teachings, and common philosophies that guided us.
Culture is everything workers think and believe about an organization and their role in it, and their belief and alignment with the culture results in what they aspire to and what the organization achieves as a whole, no matter what generation they are part of. While products, services, and processes can be copied by the competition in some fashion, culture cannot, making it a powerful strategic weapon.
Culture isn’t a random occurrence; rather, it’s something that requires deliberate construction. Therefore, it’s crucial to intentionally cultivate a company culture. Don’t make hiring decisions solely based on an individual’s qualifications or job role. While someone may meet all the technical requirements, if they don’t align with the company culture, it can impede progress and even dampen morale. Purposefully emphasize the creation of strong and enduring relationships founded on trust, values, honesty, integrity, and the consistent fulfillment of commitments.
Imperative 2: Shift from Motivation to Inspiration
Moving back to the discussion of the multigenerational workforce, Mark described his earlier years in the corporate world as one based on economical motivation — trying to make more money and increase his financial status. I myself was motivated in a similar fashion, and suffice it to say, most Baby Boomers were and still are as well.
But with Baby Boomers retiring and Gen X, Millennials, Gen Z, and even younger generations eventually making up the majority of the workforce, this strategy is no longer a solely sufficient motivator.
Of course, fair monetary compensation is still an absolute necessity; however, studies have shown that younger workers would rather do work with purpose and significance behind it than be recognized by their employer or do work that is solely based on financial stability. They seek out inspiration and purpose, to know that their individual roles have an impact and are a benefit to the entire company, industry, and humankind.
During our interview, Mark emphasized the importance of being intentional about taking an individual’s work and connecting it to a bigger purpose, and demonstrate to them how it serves a greater good. Focus on inclusion and showing employees how their job interacts with and directly impacts others in a positive way. What this also leads to is a meshing of different viewpoints, opinions, and ideas—the necessary components of innovation.
During our conversation, Mark likened this to the Marines. No Marine thinks of themselves as just a pilot, as just a commander on the ground, or as just a communications specialist. Every person knows how they and every one of their comrades’ individual roles benefit the entire unit and how it creates safety for everyone.
Imperative 3: Shift from Experience to Emotion
Finally, emotion is a powerful tool with both your customers and your employees. For instance, drivers do not traditionally talk about cars they like, but ones they love! They do not recommend restaurants they merely enjoyed or ones that disappointed them, but ones they loved!
To become a genuine Anticipatory Leader and what Mark describes as an intentional leader, design and deliver a positive emotion around both your products and services. What do you want customers to be saying about your organization? What do you want customers to be feeling when they interact with your product or customer service team? Reverse engineer it and determine what you want the emotion to be, and design your strategy around that.
Tips to Become a More Intentional Leader and Organization
Becoming more intentional and prompting your workforce to entertain a more Anticipatory Mindset does not have to be a huge undertaking. Here are just a few steps to become an intentional leader and organization:
Check Relevance – Some organizations continue doing something that worked in the past even though it no longer works in the present. While there is importance to the wisdom of the past, leaders must constantly be checking on what is relevant so that you too remain relevant. This is where the multigenerational workforce really comes into play. Combine the wisdom of the older generations with the technological knowledge of younger ones to become dynamically relevant.
Check Your Speed and Direction – Imagine driving the completely wrong way on a road trip but going twice as fast as you would if you were going the right way. You get farther away from your destination much faster. You may be moving ahead at an alarming rate, but are you moving in the right direction? Are you making the correct decisions? Speed means nothing if you are not going in the right direction for your goals.
Learn to Fail Fast – Failing itself isn’t the critical factor; what truly matters is the opportunity to gain insights from failure. Embrace the concept of Learning to fail fast, for in doing so, you accelerate your learning curve while quickly recovering from setbacks. The only truly detrimental mistake is one from which you fail to extract valuable lessons.
Both Mark Sanborn and I believe that if you simply choose just one area of focus a day that slowly chips away at a much bigger problem, this will create a better company culture, more in-tune emotion, and inspire all who work with you.
Addressing numerous small issues will ultimately lead to something substantial. However, the crucial element is to maintain absolute clarity within your team and execute deliberate, consistent actions to establish a lasting presence in your industry.
They’re BACK!!! Remember those preapprovals that made a choice to stop looking for houses until the rates dropped and home prices went down? Guess what? THEY’RE BACK!!!
Each week as rates have continued higher and as inventory of available homes remains tight, those who believed the “experts” on social media, that rates and home prices were soon to fall. Well guess what? People are discovering that it was a bad move to sit and wait.
Think about those who didn’t want to buy when rates moved past 4%; I bet they wish they had a 4% mortgage now! Maybe some held on until rates went past 5%; I bet they would love that 5% rate in their new home right now! Remember those just a few short weeks ago who were distraught when thinking about a mortgage rate above 6%? I bet they would be thrilled to lock in that 6% rate if you put it in front of them now.
How long can people afford to try and wait for things to come back to where they believe they should be? Have some now be priced out of EVER getting a home, because between price appreciation and higher rates, they can’t qualify or save enough money to get into that home. Sad but true, waiting can be devastating; especially because they could have easily bought, and then refinanced if rates went lower. But will they ever go low enough to make it worth the wait?
Historically, rates on a 30-year fixed loan have been between 2.5% and 18.5%. The average in that span is about 7.75%. While I don’t believe we will see 18.5% again; I also don’t believe we will ever see 2.5% again. While we would all prefer to have lower rates; sometimes sacrificing average for the hope of excellent, can leave you in a very poor position! That is why I am seeing more and more of those people who move into “waiting mode”, realize that they needed to get into “buy mode”, and to do it quickly, before they lost any more ground! Have you called all your past preapprovals that went to the sidelines and had a conversation about what the cost of waiting has been? Maybe that’s a call you should be making?
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![These Are America’s Most Expensive Towns [New LendingTree Report]](/media/k2/items/cache/dfeb0cba9a844a634973295121d22fba_XS.jpg)
The town-and-country lifestyle is often depicted as simple, idyllic and inexpensive compared to big-city living — especially when it comes to housing costs. But is this accurate?
To look at how costly buying a house in a town can get, LendingTree analyzed housing data to find the 50 U.S. micropolitan areas — which we refer to in this study as “towns” — with populations between 10,000 and 50,000 that had the most expensive median home values. Many towns across the country are chock-full of expensive real estate, with home values that rival — and, in some cases, exceed — those found in major metropolitan areas.
In raw dollars, Vineyard Haven, Mass., Jackson, Wyo., and Breckenridge, Colo., are the towns with the most expensive real estate in the U.S. The median home values in these towns are $857,600, $670,100 and $641,900, respectively.
Relative to income, homes in Vineyard Haven, Jackson and Hailey, Idaho, are the most expensive. In these areas, median home values are an average of 8.57 times higher than the median area household incomes.
Of the towns in our study, homes are the least expensive relative to income in Evanston, Wyo., Los Alamos, N.M., and Rock Springs, Wyo. The median home value in these areas is an average of 2.72 times higher than the median area household income
You can check out our full report here: https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/most-expensive-towns-in-america/
LendingTree's Senior Economist and report author, Jacob Channel, had this to say:
"Unfortunately, high housing costs can be very difficult for many small town residents to deal with. This is especially true in areas that are popular vacation destinations - like most of the towns that populate the higher end of our study’s ranking - where buyers who earn their money elsewhere and only live in a town part time can afford to outspend an area’s full-time residents.”
Nearly four of every five (78%) respondents to a recent housing survey support policies that promote building more housing, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. But just one-third (32%) of the respondents who are pro-building would feel positive about an apartment complex built in their neighborhood, and 20% of them would feel negative about it. Nearly half (48%) would feel neutral.
Broken down by homeowners versus renters, 74% of owners support policies that promote building more housing, compared with 80% of renters. One-quarter (25%) of owners would feel positive about a new apartment complex built in their neighborhood, about on par with 28% of renters. Two in five (40%) owners would feel negative about a new apartment complex built in their neighborhood, and 35% would feel neutral. That’s compared with about one-quarter (24%) of renters feeling negative about the prospect of a new apartment complex nearby, and nearly half (49%) who would feel neutral.
This is according to a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Qualtrics in May and June 2023. The survey was fielded to 5,079 U.S. residents who either moved in the last year, plan to move in the next year, or rent their home. This report focuses mainly on the 3,949 respondents (78% of the total) who indicated they are “for” policies that promote building more housing.
The U.S. had an estimated housing shortfall of 3.8 million units as of 2021, and both buying and renting a home is more expensive in 2023 than it’s ever been. Prices continue to rise even in the midst of elevated mortgage rates and low demand because there aren’t enough homes for sale. Building more housing would narrow the gap between supply and demand, and help make housing more affordable. Policies that promote building include loosening zoning restrictions, allowing accessory dwelling units (ADUs) and enacting tax incentives that would encourage developers to build.
“Personal preferences for things like a quiet neighborhood or old-fashioned charm are often at odds with building new housing,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Even though so many Americans believe in building new dense housing in theory, that ideology isn’t strong enough to outweigh their own desires–especially when they don’t stand to directly benefit from the building. That’s why it’s so difficult to overcome community opposition to dense new housing, even during a time when so many Americans believe in the Yes In My Backyard (YIMBY) movement.”
Most Democrats and Republicans are pro-building–but not necessarily in their neighborhood
Broken down by political affiliation, the majority of both Democrats and Republicans support policies that promote building more housing. But a minority of both Democrats and Republicans would feel positive about a new apartment complex built in their neighborhood.
More than eight of every 10 (83%) of respondents who identify as Democrats are pro-building, compared with three-quarters (75%) of respondents who identify as Republicans.
Roughly one-third (34%) of Democrats would feel positive about a large new apartment complex to be built in their neighborhood, compared with 24% of Republicans. Just under one-quarter (23%) of Democrats would feel negative about a large complex built in their neighborhood, versus 37% of Republicans. Roughly two in five Democrats (43%) and Republicans (40%) would feel neutral.
While Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be against a large new complex in their neighborhood, the South–which is made up largely of Republican-leaning states–is building far more homes than other parts of the country. States in the South issued 576,000 single-family building permits in August, more than twice as many as any other region and up 10% year over year. That’s compared to 4% increases in the West and Midwest and a 5% decline in the Northeast.
“There are YIMBYs and NIMBYs on both sides of the aisle,” Fairweather said. “That’s part of the reason it’s so difficult to push through policies that promote dense housing. But all types of building ultimately help with housing supply and affordability, even building more single-family homes. The more homes that exist, the more likely it is a person can find one to fit their needs and their budget. So even though Republicans are more likely to oppose dense housing, the South is doing more than other regions to create more housing and help with affordability. Looking forward, governments in some red and blue states are prioritizing affordable housing. In Montana, for instance, a wave of bipartisan legislation to reform zoning is making its way through the government, and California lawmakers have eliminated barriers to building ADUs.”
Democrats are nearly twice as likely as Republicans to feel more positive if the apartment complex being built in their neighborhood was for low-income residents. About one-third (34%) of Democrats say they would feel more positive if that were the case, compared to 19% of Republicans. About half of both groups would feel neutral.
To view the full report, including charts and more details on the survey, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/survey-respondents-support-homebuilding
We live in an amazingly uncertain world, but that uncertainty is brimming with certainty!
I know this may seem contradictory, but it is true, and worth the exploration. Yes, we do live in constant uncertainty. What will happen with certain businesses or industries if the economy shifts, if technology disrupts, or if a new product or service falls flat? There is no doubt that uncertainty breeds fear, anxiety, and even a type of mental agility that treads water until you feel all is clear.
But buried in these uncertainties are trends and data all around us that give us rather obvious information on what is to come if you know how to look for it! We may not know for sure how AI ChatBots like ChatGPT will be used in the future, but we do know that their use will only increase exponentially in both the business world and our personal lives!
This is a Hard Trend, whereas the “how” is a Soft Trend. My Hard Trend Methodology has helped many both navigate and anticipate the future, so they can innovate in a low-risk environment. Especially in business, separating future certainties from future possibilities and learning to leverage both are vital in giving us a competitive advantage, in arming ourselves to avoid disruption, and finding the opportunities in that disruption.
Using Consumer Behavior to Help Future Consumers
One powerful way that Hard Trends in disruptive digital technology help businesses stay ahead of the curve is by using new technology to meet customer preferences and needs. Truth be told, if we don’t, they will ultimately be met with someone who does.
The exponential evolution of technology, especially the dawning of breakthrough AI software, is a Hard Trend that has already begun to discern customer wants, needs, issues, and behaviors. Customers’ increasing needs for more digitized and personalized experiences are also Hard Trends. Neither of these will slow down, or somehow go in reverse, because technology itself continues to accelerate.
Because you cannot avoid these Hard Trend future certainties, you must learn to leverage them to your advantage, which in turn will keep you in tune with customer needs as a business leader. In the way of meeting customer needs by leveraging disruptive digital technology, you inadvertently position your organization to capture the interest of new customers as well!
How can you find the opportunity that disruptive advances in AI technology and other transformations bring? How can you be the disruptor instead of the disrupted, implementing technology as a tool to better the customer experience and produce the results they are looking for?
Don’t Confuse Complacency with Stability!
Everyone needs a reminder every now and again that complacency is a company killer.
Failing to adapt to transformative technology and using it to your advantage is not always about what specific products you offer customers. It is a combination of that and understanding their behaviors to help stay up to speed with them and their evolving needs.
It may hurt to hear this, but what works for you now will not work for you in the same fashion in one year, let alone several. Technology is always changing, and, as a result, people change. But new technologies play major roles in the merger of individuals’ needs and technology that helps determine what they are.
You are very much a part of those paradigm shifts, but as a business leader, you have the power play. You can determine customer needs with ease by implementing said transformative technologies and better serving those customers while also drawing in new ones.
Ignoring Change Does Not Make It Go Away
Dell is an example of a company that not only missed the mark on adapting to technology that consumers wanted, but also in forecasting where their needs were headed.
Back in its heyday, Dell was an innovative leader in the sale of computers. When most tech companies were still selling in physical stores, Dell identified that the internet was on the rise as a Hard Trend future certainty. As such, their sales skyrocketed when they implemented eCommerce platforms to sell their computers while their competitors tried desperately to keep up with brick-and-mortar stores.
But after their whirlwind success for years regarding their customer service, Dell got complacent with its products. The miniaturization of devices started along with the exponential acceleration of connectivity, bringing smartphones and mobile devices to prominence. Dell stuck to its guns, assuming customers would always need a desktop computer, but as customer needs shifted faster than ever before, it quickly fell by the wayside.
Regardless of the circumstances, if organizations opt to stick with their traditional methods instead of proactively recognizing future prospects, they’ve essentially decided to welcome disruption. Dell failed to stay vigilant in spotting an unmistakable Hard Trend in the rapidly evolving technology landscape that was significantly influencing consumer preferences and demands.
Disruption as a Choice
I don’t like to leave my readers with a sense of doom and gloom lingering in their chests. Disruption in any capacity is always possible, and as mentioned earlier, a feeling of uncertainty will always be around.
However, certainty is deeply evident in everything that is uncertain about your industry and the world, and this makes being disrupted a choice.
The unfortunate reality is that not many see it this way when their businesses fail, or their customers choose the competition instead. Many see others’ progress as something they could have done, but hindsight does not breed successful and significant innovation.
In order for you to avoid becoming complacent, you must constantly be absorbing Hard Trend future certainties, understanding the difference between Hard Trends and Soft Trends, and then influencing those Soft Trends. This is especially true with regard to meeting customer needs.
You should expect customer needs to continue on the transformative path they have been on, and moreover, accelerate even more. While some companies may look at the likes of AI, generative AI like ChatGPT, Edge Computing, and other breakthroughs that can help you anticipate consumer needs effectively as fads, trust me when I say that they are not!
Business leaders need to ask themselves three questions right now:
- How will disruptive technology such as AI affect the landscape of our industry?
- What customer needs are currently not being met that can be met by implementing AI and other transformative technologies?
- Where are customer expectations headed, and how can we use accelerating technology to meet those expectations?
Once you understand how technology is evolving, and what impact it has on consumer behavior, you can effectively make strategic decisions, innovate in low-risk ways, and take control of your future!
The Federal Reserve Board meeting is over and there was good news and bad news. The good news is that they didn’t raise rates and held them where they were as expected. The bad news, well, there was more than just a little bad news, is the comments weren’t as encouraging as many had hoped, and the Fed “Dot Plot Chart” shows that they believe the Fed Funds Rate will stay above 5% for the rest of this year, possibly another hike this year, and the bad news doesn’t end there. The projections for 2024 rates are surprising. While 9 felt the Fed Funds Rate would fall below 5%, with the low projected at 4.25%; 10 members still have the Fed Funds Rate above 5% with even one projecting a rate that is past 6%!
I don’t believe you need to panic, the Dot Plot Chart has pretty much been a useless exercise, if you just look back at past projects, you would be safe to say that it isn’t a good piece of data to make any wagers on! The issues are, people and markets read it, social media folks will hype it, and sadly, some will make some poor choices because of it. But the markets have to deal with it, and so do you and me!
I still believe the Fed has over tightened. The fact that they are even considering another hike before the end of the year is very disappointing. The key for us is to share the news and share that it doesn’t appear that mortgage rates will be heading lower until the Federal Reserve Board starts looking at real time data and acting on actual information instead of seasonal adjustments and algorithms.
Remember when I said that those who didn’t act when rates moved out of the 3% range because rates were going to go lower? What about those at 4% or 5%? Do we even talk about 6% and 7%? Remember the bumper stickers with the patches I shared? Many of you laughed back then. Maybe those rates were better than we thought?
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