Housing supply is finally rebounding as sellers get used to elevated mortgage rates, but it’s not rebounding enough to curb home price growth. High housing costs mean many house hunters remain hesitant to commit.
New listings jumped 3.8% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis in February to the highest level since September 2022, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. They were up 14.8% year over year, the largest annual gain since May 2021.
Active listings, or the total supply of homes for sale, hit the highest level in a year. They climbed 0.8% from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, and were little changed (-0.1%) from a year earlier–the smallest annual decline in months.
New listings rose fastest from a year earlier in Texas and active listings rose fastest in Florida–the two states that have been building the most homes. In Florida, condo listings in particular are contributing to the jump in supply amid a surge in HOA and insurance fees.
“The housing market is nothing like it was two years ago during the pandemic homebuying frenzy, but it’s better than it was last year. It’s coming back,” said David Palmer, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Seattle. “Sellers who were on the fence in 2023 are now listing. They’re more used to elevated rates now. There still aren’t enough listings to quench pent-up buyer demand, but it’s getting better.”
Nationwide, housing supply is on the rise because the “lock-in effect” is easing; eventually, homeowners who have been holding on to their ultra-low mortgage rates simply have to move.
“February was a mixed bag for the housing market and the economy,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Housing supply is finally starting to recover in a meaningful way, which is great news for buyers who for months have been competing for a tiny pool of homes for sale. Still, many house hunters are hesitant to pull the trigger because mortgage rates and home prices remain elevated.”
Mortgage-purchase applications slid in February as mortgage rates ticked back up after dropping in December. The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate was 6.78% last month, up from 6.64% in January. Mortgage rates will likely remain elevated a bit longer than expected after this week’s inflation report came in hotter than anticipated.
Home sales rose 0.5% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, and fell 3.5% year over year.
Home Prices Post Biggest Increase in Nearly a Year and a Half
The median U.S. home sale price climbed 6.6% year over year–the biggest uptick since September 2022–to $412,778. Please note that home price data is not seasonally adjusted, which is why Redfin focuses on year-over-year changes for this metric.
Prices continue to rise because despite the recent uptick in listings, there’s still not enough supply to meet demand. Both new listings and active listings remained far below pre-pandemic levels in February.
“If you price your home reasonably, buyers will show up. If you don’t, buyers will wait for you to drop the price,” Palmer said. “I recently listed an estate sale fixer upper for $550,000 and it got 14 offers, sold for $75,000 over the asking price and the buyer waived every contingency.”
In Seattle, 77.4% of homes that went under contract did so within two weeks–the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. It took the top spot from Rochester, which has held that title for months. The typical home that went under contract in Seattle did so in 11 days (versus a national median of 48 days).
February 2024 Highlights: United States
|
February 2024 |
Month-Over-Month Change |
Year-Over-Year Change |
|
|
Median sale price |
$412,778 |
2.7% |
6.6% |
|
Homes sold, seasonally adjusted |
422,203 |
0.5% |
-3.5% |
|
New listings, seasonally adjusted |
548,285 |
3.8% |
14.8% |
|
All homes for sale, seasonally adjusted (active listings) |
1,601,260 |
0.8% |
-0.1% |
|
Months of supply |
2.7 |
-0.5 |
0 |
|
Median days on market |
48 |
-2 |
-5 |
|
Share of for-sale homes with a price drop |
16.1% |
-0.1 ppts |
2.9 ppts |
|
Share of homes sold above final list price |
26.1% |
2 ppts |
2.6 ppts |
|
Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio |
98.7% |
0.4 ppts |
0.5 ppts |
|
6.78% |
0.13 ppts |
0.52 ppts |
Metro-Level Highlights: February 2024
- New listings: New listings rose most from a year earlier in Austin, TX (44.6%), Dallas (38.1%) and Charleston, SC (36.8%). They fell in two metros–Albany, NY (-2.9%) and Buffalo, NY (-0.7%) –and were flat in Fresno, CA (0%).
- Active listings (total supply): Active listings increased fastest in Cape Coral, FL (60.6%), North Port, FL (52.5%) and Fort Lauderdale, FL (25.5%). They decreased fastest in Raleigh, NC (-24.4%), New Brunswick, NJ (-19%) and Nassau County, NY (-18.5%).
- Prices: Median sale prices rose most from a year earlier in Newark, NJ (16.5%), Anaheim, CA (15.8%) and Grand Rapids, MI (15.8%). They fell in three metros: San Antonio (-4.2%), Memphis, TN (-3.5%) and North Port (-2.2%).
- Closed home sales: Closed sales rose most in San Jose, CA (24.9%), San Francisco (21.1%) and Dayton, OH (15.1%). They fell most in Frederick, MD (-14.8%), New Orleans (-14.2%) and Tulsa, OK (-14%).
- Sold above list price: In San Jose, 65.3% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came Rochester, NY (62.8%) and Oakland, CA (62.3%). The shares were lowest in North Port (6.6%), Cape Coral (8.3%) and West Palm Beach, FL (8.7%).
- Off market in two weeks: In Seattle, 77.4% of homes that went under contract did so within two weeks—the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came Rochester (75%) and San Jose (70.9%). The lowest shares were in Honolulu (8.4%), Greensboro, NC (19%) and McAllen, TX (20.8%).
- Days on market: The typical home that went under contract in Seattle did so in 11 days, making the fastest market among those Redfin analyzed. Next came Rochester (12) and San Jose (12). The slowest markets were New Orleans (97), Austin (82) and Honolulu (77).
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-february-2024
-- Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.74 percent.
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased again this week, with declines totaling almost a quarter of a percent in two weeks’ time,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Despite the recent dip, mortgage rates remain high as the market contends with the pressure of sticky inflation. In this environment, there is a good possibility that rates will stay higher for a longer period of time.”
News Facts
- The 30-year FRM averaged 6.74 percent as of March 14, 2024, down from last week when it averaged 6.88 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.60 percent.
- The 15-year FRM averaged 6.16 percent, down from last week when it averaged 6.22 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.90 percent.
-
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. For more information, view our Frequently Asked Questions.
Freddie Mac’s mission is to make home possible for families across the nation. We promote liquidity, stability, affordability and equity in the housing market throughout all economic cycles. Since 1970, we have helped tens of millions of families buy, rent or keep their home. Learn More: Website
It cannot be disputed that your cash cow may have brought your organization success in the realm of profit for years. But does that mean it will be the best business strategy to stick with throughout 2024? Truthfully, the answer here has always been “yes and no” because the reality is not rooted in Either/Or — It is Both/And world!
As new companies emerge and your well-established competition pursue new innovations, they are bound to bring new solutions to the table. You cannot afford to try to push the same old product or service alone when both your competition and the world is transforming around you!
If you have become one of those business owners who say to yourself, “I can either rely on what has worked in the past and count on it to continue to perform or I can abandon that success to pursue something completely new”, this is where your thought process changes.
The beauty of business is that many things can exist in complete unity, both to the benefit of your organization! The Both/And Principle allows you to better see the benefits of both situations and allows you to choose to pursue both in critically thought out ways. I want to give you some actionable ways to utilize this bountiful strategy in the new year and experience the results you have been aiming for.
Afraid to Abandon Old Ideas? Reinventing Them is the Better Option
I find that when trying to implement the Both/And Principle, several business leaders struggle with compartmentalizing products or services. For them, choosing either the old or the new allows for a clean break from the past by simply pulling the plug on the old to become a new organization.
Conversely, those that avoid anything new for fear of losing their cash cow are often even harder to help harness the Both/And Principle. Moving into a new arena sounds like stress to them, and because the tried-and-true methods have worked for them for so long, the concept of integrating something new into their workflow seems overly complicated.
Wherever either of these behaviors stem from aside, one thing is for sure: Each of those types wants to progress in their industry without question, they just feel choosing between two ideas is the only option. But instead, I implore business leaders to try the concept of reinventing a product or service that is old and trusted.
In doing so, you are heeding the Both/And Principle and in a way, giving your customers a choice. “Here is our old product that you are used to, but if you would like, you can try the new, reinvented model that is more up-to-date on industry standards and evolving needs we know you have.” This is how you develop an Anticipatory approach is how you develop an Anticipatory approach to serving your industry — Opening new doors to show that your organization believes in the future!
An Either/Or Mindset Can Be Dangerous
Without having to tell you, I am sure that you understand that approaching business with an Either/Or Mindset can be downright detrimental to your longevity in your industry. This is more or less the case when you choose the old over the new.
Will a competitor replace your cash cow with an updated model? Absolutely — This is as much of a Hard Trend future certainty as the technology involved in said product or service evolving as well! But also consider the aspects behind legacy products, services, or systems. They may not be up-to-date on proper functionality, industry legalities, or customer safety and security.
For instance, an older version of a web application for customers may be user friendly, but by choosing to not implement a newer, fresher option solely because of trusting the old could ultimately cost you your business if said application were to be hacked. Sensitive customer data could be released, trust in your business broken, and soon the least of your worries would be how to sustain the status quo!
In this case, a Both/And Mindset prepares your organization for change that you will have to face, stopping any fully preventable disasters from happening and paving the way for a prosperous future.
Only You Have the Power to Prevent Limiting Yourself
Imagine having multiple roads and various speed limit highways to get from one end of the United States to the other, but only allowing yourself to take one route with several stops, delays, and rough roads that can damage your vehicle.
A silly thought, as we know there are multiple routes to expedite the process and even make it a more pleasant trip and have the ability to choose the best path forward.
In a nutshell, this is what limiting yourself to an Either/Or mindset is like. Willingly approaching business decisions with an Either/Or mindset is incredibly limiting, both to your organization’s ability to cement your place as a significant organization and in terms of profits. You are limiting yourself to just one path when the reality is there are several at your disposal.
Giving your customers multiple options and improving on older methods with newer technology and insights allows you to be a transformative organization, along with being an Anticipatory one. I will read eBooks on a Kindle when I am traveling or during a commute via public transportation, but I personally love the weight and the feel of a paperback or hardcover book in my hands, as do so many others. If any bookstore today chose to just sell eBooks and completely rid their catalog of printed books, imagine the loss they would experience!
Think of your own organization and analyze the choices you have to make in this new year. It is not “out with the old, in with the new”, it is “redefine the old, reinvent with the new!” Take new roads, unlock new doors, and open the possibility for 2024 to be the year of profound growth for you and your organization.
Are we there yet? No, not just yet!
For months now we have seen social media and the “experts” share their thoughts on why rates would be going down significantly. This has caused many in our industry to predict lower rates and talk about 5%, even 4% or lower rates to come. The issue with that is that while lower rates may be in the future, many have hung their hats on this and are now suffering the fact that mortgage rates have yet to make that move as they had expected. While rates are certainly lower than they were last fall, far too may people are thinking about rates that are still far below where we can actually deliver today, and this is causing some people to miss out on opportunities to have bought a home and locked in a PRICE, while maintaining the ability to refinance later if rates do go lower and lower their PAYMENT!
The real issue is, while people have been putting off buying a house until the rates go lower, they have watched the cost of the homes they want to purchase increase by thousands, or even tens of thousands of dollars! Even with a lower rate, it may still cause a higher monthly payment because people will be forced to borrow more money because they waited for a lower rate. Buy when you want to buy, not when rates are low. When rates go lower, you will see more competition for houses, which can lead to further higher prices, meaning you have to borrow even more money…
When you are ready to buy, buy. You have locked in your price and your payment. If rates go lower, you can always refinance. In fact, many companies are offering a low cost or no cost refinance for their existing customers so they can take advantage if rates go lower. If rates don’t go lower, you have your home at a good price and with payments you are already comfortable with; and if rates go higher, you have secured your home and your payments!
The markets are digesting a less than favorable CPI report and we are facing initial jobless/continuing claims and the PPI numbers this morning, could be a market moving event so be watching. Questions or comments: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
New listings rose 13% from a year earlier, their biggest increase in nearly three years, but home prices and mortgage rates remain elevated
The median U.S. monthly housing payment was $2,686 during the four weeks ending March 10, just $30 shy of last October’s all-time high, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s due to a combination of still-high mortgage rates and rising prices.
While mortgage rates came down slightly this past week after increasing for four straight weeks, they’re still near 7%, and sale prices are up 5% year over year nationwide. On a local level, prices increased in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros, the first time that has happened since July 2022.
High housing costs are still pricing out some would-be homebuyers, with pending sales down 6% from a year earlier. But more house hunters are wading into the market; mortgage-purchase applications rose for the second week in a row. That’s partly because supply is steadily improving, giving buyers who can afford elevated prices and rates more homes to choose from. New listings are up 13%, the biggest annual increase in nearly three years, and the total number of homes for sale is up 3%, the biggest increase in nine months.
“Mortgage rates are likely to stay high a little longer than expected, with the latest inflation report essentially eliminating any chance of the Fed cutting interest rates before June,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Buyers who can afford to may want to get serious about their home search now, as housing costs are unlikely to fall anytime soon. The uptick in listings should be another motivator for buyers: There’s more to choose from, and improving inventory may bring out more competition from other buyers as we get further into spring. Some buyers have already gotten the memo, with mortgage applications finally increasing after weeks of declines.”
For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit our “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
|
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
|
|
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.94% (March 13) |
Down from 6.97% a week earlier |
Up from 6.75% |
Mortgage News Daily |
|
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.88% (week ending March 7) |
Down from 6.94% a week earlier; first decline after 4 weeks of increases |
Up from 6.73% |
Freddie Mac |
|
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
Up 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending March 8); 2nd straight week of increases |
Down 11% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
|
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
Up 5% from a month earlier (as of week ending March 10) |
Down 10% |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
|
|
Google searches for “home for sale” |
Down 4% from a month earlier (as of March 9) |
Down 19% |
Google Trends |
|
|
Touring activity |
Up 29% from the start of the year (as of March 10) |
At this time last year, it was up 20% from the start of 2023 |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
|
Key housing-market data
|
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending March 10, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
|||
|
Four weeks ending March 10, 2024 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
$371,750 |
5.1% |
|
|
Median asking price |
$399,850 |
4.9% |
|
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,686 at a 6.88% mortgage rate |
7.3% |
Just $30 shy of all-time high set in October 2023 |
|
Pending sales |
79,779 |
-5.8% |
|
|
New listings |
85,122 |
13% |
Biggest increase since June 2021 |
|
Active listings |
780,779 |
2.9% |
Biggest increase since May 2023 |
|
Months of supply |
3.5 months |
+0.4 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions |
|
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
40.2% |
Up from 38% |
|
|
Median days on market |
45 |
-2 days |
|
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
25.1% |
Up from 24% |
|
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
5.6% |
+1.5 pts. |
|
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
98.6% |
+0.3 pts. |
|
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending March 10, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
|||
|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
San Jose, CA (16.3%) Newark, NJ (15.1%) Boston (14.9%) West Palm Beach, FL (14.8%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (13.8%) |
n/a |
Increased in all metros |
|
Pending sales |
Milwaukee (11.5%) San Francisco (9%) Cincinnati (8%) Minneapolis (7.5%) San Jose, CA (5.8%) |
San Antonio, TX (-25.8%) New York (-15%) Atlanta (-14.8%) Houston (-13.9%) New Brunswick, NJ (-13.8%) |
Increased in 12 metros |
|
New listings |
San Jose, CA (30.4%) Phoenix (29.9%) Las Vegas (27.4%) Minneapolis (26%) Jacksonville, FL (24.9%) |
New York (-18.4%) Atlanta (-5.8%) Newark, NJ (-3.9%) Chicago (-0.7%) Virginia Beach, VA (-0.4%) Philadelphia (-0.2%) |
Declined in 6 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-surge
The National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (NAHREP®) released the 2023 State of Hispanic Homeownership Report (SHHR) today, which examines the progress made in the last year toward the organization's mission of increasing sustainable Hispanic homeownership.
the Hispanic homeownership rate grew to 49.5 percent, representing a significant milestone. Despite confronting what has been recognized as the most challenging housing market in terms of affordability on record, Latinos achieved a notable net gain of 377,000 owner-households, marking the largest single-year increase since 2005, spanning nearly two decades. Despite formidable obstacles such as soaring interest rates and dwindling housing inventory, resilience prevailed. Hispanic homebuyers demonstrated adaptability by relocating to more financially viable regions, leveraging co-borrowers in their financing arrangements, and capitalizing on specialized local programs, all contributing to realizing their homeownership aspirations.
"The resilience and determination demonstrated by Latino homebuyers in 2023 are truly remarkable. Despite facing unprecedented market conditions, Latinos have shown an unwavering commitment to homeownership and financial empowerment.," said Nuria Rivera, President of NAHREP.
Key highlights from the 2023 SHHR report include:
The Hispanic homeownership rate nears 50 percent, a key milestone. In 2023, the Hispanic homeownership rate reached 49.5 percent, the largest increase in homeownership rate across racial or ethnic demographic groups compared to the year prior. The Hispanic homeownership rate in 2023 marks a key milestone, as it nearly fully rebounds to its pre-housing crisis peak.
The largest single-year gain in Hispanic owner-households in almost 20 years. Despite facing what has been reported as the least affordable housing market on record, Latinos added a net gain of 377,000 owner-households in 2023, the largest single-year gain since 2005.
Hispanic homebuyers are young. With a median age of 30.7, Latinos are the youngest racial or ethnic demographic in the U.S., more than ten years younger than non-Hispanics. A larger share of Hispanic homebuyers are under the age of 25 compared to non-Hispanics, and agents in NARHEP's Practitioner Study indicate that most of their buyers in 2023 were between the ages of 25 and 35.
Interest rates are the most significant barriers to advancing homeownership. In October of 2023, the average 30-year fixed interest rate reached a high of 7.79 percent, the highest weekly average 30-year fixed rate since the year 2000. Higher interest rates made qualifying for a mortgage more difficult, fostering uncertainty among buyers.
Home price appreciation has slowed, but pricing remains unaffordable. Interest rates had a much-needed cooling effect on home price appreciation in 2023, dropping from a record-breaking year-over-year growth rate of 19.5 percent in April 2022 to 2.3 percent in April 2023. Despite this slowdown, prices remain unaffordable. In 2023, only 13.8 percent of homes on the market were priced under $200,000, compared to 39.1 percent in 2016.
Despite barriers, Hispanic homebuyers remain resilient. While rising interest rates and home prices created affordability barriers, resiliency and ingenuity within the Latino community have led to sustained homeownership growth. Hispanic homebuyers have employed several strategies to overcome affordability challenges.
Hispanic homebuyers are willing to move to lower-cost areas to achieve homeownership. Hispanic buyers are willing to relocate from higher to lower-cost markets, both long-distance moves across state lines and finding more affordable neighborhoods within their current region. Between 2022 and 2023, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Georgia saw the highest Hispanic net migration.
A larger share of Hispanic buyers are taking on co-borrowers when qualifying for a mortgage. In 2023, agents in NARHEP's Practitioner Study noted a noticeable increase in co-borrowers for Hispanic homebuyers. In some cases, co-borrowers choose to buy and live together, while others offer support with the intention of coming off the loan at some point in the future.
Real estate agents help identify local financial incentives and programs for first-time homebuyers. Homebuilders, state and local governments, and financial institutions often offer programs to lessen the financial burdens of a home purchase, particularly for first-time buyers. Rate buy-down and local down payment assistance programs have been particularly impactful.
Buyer-side representation for Hispanic homebuyers is at risk. Real estate agents play an outsized role in supporting their clients in what is often the most complex financial transaction of their lifetime, a role that spans beyond the real estate transaction itself. Recent class action lawsuits have the potential to leave Hispanic homebuyers without representation, putting them at tremendous risk.
Commenting on the findings, Nuria Rivera, President of NAHREP, stated, "The resilience and determination demonstrated by Latino homebuyers in 2023 are truly remarkable. Despite facing unprecedented market conditions, Latinos have shown an unwavering commitment to homeownership and financial empowerment."
"Freddie Mac and NAHREP have a shared mission and commitment to advancing sustainable homeownership and making home possible for more Hispanic homebuyers.," said Danny Gardner, Senior Vice President, Client and Community Engagement Single-Family Division. "NAHREP's annual State of Hispanic Homeownership Report serves as a valuable resource for real estate professionals, providing insights, trends, and data to help realtors better serve their clients. Through our collaborative efforts, we are creating more pathways to homeownership for Hispanic families across America."
The release of the State of Hispanic Homeownership report coincides with the start of NAHREP's Homeownership and Wealth Building Conference which resumes today and runs until tomorrow, Wednesday, February 13, in Washington D.C. The conference brings together housing industry professionals who want to learn how best to service the Latino mega-market. The conference includes panel discussions with key government and industry leaders, the release of the State of Hispanic Homeownership Report, and the NAHREP SOMOS Magazine and Annual Report.
The Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) Multifamily Apartment Investment Market Index® (AIMI®) decreased in the fourth quarter of 2023, but increased over the full year, with the annual gain indicating that investment conditions were better in the fourth quarter compared with one year prior.
With mortgage rates persistently high, AIMI fell nationally and in all 25 regional markets measured for the fourth quarter of 2023, as did net operating income (NOI) over the same period. Despite the fourth quarter dip, AIMI finished 2023 up for the year nationally and in the majority of regional markets.
“The end of 2023 was a tale of two directions for AIMI,” said Sara Hoffmann, senior director of Multifamily Research at Freddie Mac. “The index finished 2023 up overall for the year, but fourth quarter was down across the board. The market continues to adjust to the new reality of higher interest rates, which were offset by a steep contraction in property prices, while NOI was virtually flat when we look at 2023 as a whole. All in all, AIMI suggests that investors are paying less per dollar of property income compared with one year ago.”
Mortgage rates increased by 72 basis points in 2023, high by historical standards but the smallest annual increase since the first quarter of 2022. NOI results were mixed for 2023, with 10 markets experiencing growth and 14 markets experiencing declining NOI, while the nation and one market (Seattle) remained essentially flat. Property prices declined across the board, with the nation and all markets seeing contraction and nearly half of regional markets contracting by more than -12% for the year.
The trend downward was pronounced in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a decrease in NOI in the nation and in all markets. NOI contracted between -0.2% (Chicago) to -3.5% (Charlotte) in the fourth quarter of 2023. Property prices dropped in the nation and in all markets except for New York, which experienced a small gain of 0.2% over the quarter.
In addition to national and local values, a sensitivity table is available that captures how the index value adjusts based on changes in certain underlying variables. Additional information about AIMI is on the Freddie Mac Multifamily website, including FAQs and a video.
AIMI is an analytical tool that combines multifamily rental income growth, property price growth and mortgage rates to provide a single Index that measures multifamily market investment conditions. A rise in AIMI from one quarter to the next implies an increasingly favorable environment for multifamily investment opportunities, while a decline suggests that attractive investment opportunities are becoming more difficult to find compared with the prior period.
Freddie Mac Multifamily is the nation's multifamily housing finance leader. Historically, more than 90% of the eligible rental units we fund are affordable to families with low-to-moderate incomes earning up to 120% of area median income. Freddie Mac securitizes about 90% of the multifamily loans it purchases, thus transferring the majority of the expected credit risk from taxpayers to private investors.
Freddie Mac’s mission is to make home possible for families across the nation. We promote liquidity, stability, affordability and equity in the housing market throughout all economic cycles. Since 1970, we have helped tens of millions of families buy, rent or keep their home. Learn More:
Website
There are more homes for sale as spring approaches, and house hunters are hitting the pavement. Home touring activity is rising, and mortgage-purchase applications are up 11% this week.
New listings rose 13% from a year earlier nationwide during the four weeks ending March 3, the biggest increase in nearly three years, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
The boost in new listings helped bring the total number of homes for sale up 1.7%. Following eight months of declines, February is the first month the number of homes for sale has increased on an annual basis.
This week’s pricing data also brings a few glimmers of hope for house hunters. Asking prices of new listings posted their smallest increase in roughly two months; additionally, 5.5% of home sellers dropped their asking price, on average, the highest share of any February since at least 2015. High mortgage rates pushed the median monthly housing payment to $2,694 this week, just $23 shy of the all-time high. But final sale prices, which rose 5.3% year over year, one of the biggest increases in a year and a half, should start declining soon as price growth for new listings loses some momentum.
House hunters are looking at homes and applying for mortgages as we approach spring. Touring activity is up 23% from the start of the year, compared to a 14% increase during the same period last year, and mortgage-purchase applications are up 11% week over week. That early-stage buying activity hasn’t yet translated to a boost in sales, with pending sales down 6% year over year.
“There have been two major obstacles for homebuyers over the last year: Low inventory and high housing costs,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Now, the first barrier is starting to come down as more supply comes on the market. Housing costs are still high, but they’re likely to come down a bit as mortgage rates gradually decline through the year and price growth loses some steam. Buyers who can afford today’s mortgage rates may have better luck finding a home now than they have in the past several months, and they also may be less likely to face competition because inventory is improving.”
For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit our “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
|
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
|
|
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.97% (March 6) |
Down from 7.15% a week earlier |
Essentially flat |
Mortgage News Daily |
|
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.94% (week ending Feb. 29) |
Up from 6.9% a week earlier; 4th straight week of increases |
Up from 6.65% |
Freddie Mac |
|
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
Up 11% from a week earlier (as of week ending March 1) |
Down 8% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
|
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
Up 4% from a month earlier (as of week ending March 3) |
Down 7% |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
|
|
Google searches for “home for sale” |
Up 4% from a month earlier (as of March 2) |
Down 11% |
Google Trends |
|
|
Touring activity |
Up 23% from the start of the year (as of March 1) |
At this time last year, it was up 14% from the start of 2023 |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
|
Key housing-market data
|
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending March 3, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
|||
|
Four weeks ending March 3, 2024 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
$368,588 |
5.3% |
|
|
Median asking price |
$399,223 |
5.1% |
Smallest increase since 4 weeks ending Jan. 14 |
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,694 at a 6.94% mortgage rate |
6.9% |
Down just $23 from all-time high set in October 2023 |
|
Pending sales |
77,925 |
-6.4% |
|
|
New listings |
81,971 |
12.8% |
Biggest increase since June 2021 (there was also a 12.8% increase during the prior 4-week period) |
|
Active listings |
773,048 |
1.7% |
Largest increase since the four weeks ending June 4, 2023. Based on revised data, active listings began increasing for the first time since June during the 4 weeks ending Feb. 11. |
|
Months of supply |
3.7 months |
+0.3 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. |
|
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
39.1% |
Up from 37% |
|
|
Median days on market |
47 |
-2 days |
|
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
24.3% |
Up from 23% |
|
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
5.5% |
+1.3 pts. |
|
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
98.5% |
+0.4 pts. |
|
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending March 3, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
|||
|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
Newark, NJ (14.7%) Montgomery County, PA (14.6%) Anaheim, CA (14%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (13.9%) New Brunswick, NJ (13.8%) |
San Antonio, TX (-3.2%) |
Declined in just 1 metro |
|
Pending sales |
Cincinnati (9.2%) Milwaukee (6%) Pittsburgh (5%) Minneapolis (5%) Austin, TX (4.6%) San Francisco (2.8%) Seattle (0.7%) Cleveland (0.2%) |
San Antonio, TX (-23.8%) Warren, MI (-15.7%) New Brunswick, NJ (-15.6%) Atlanta (-15.1%) Nassau County, NY (-14.1%) |
Increased in 8 metros |
|
New listings |
Fort Worth, TX (27%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (25.4%) Houston (24.4%) Jacksonville, FL (24.1%) Miami (24.1%) |
Atlanta (-5.9%) Newark, NJ (-2.1%) Chicago (-0.4%) |
Declined in 3 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-supply-increases-first-time-eight-months
The National Association of Realtors® thanked President Biden on Thursday for raising awareness of the affordable housing crisis during his State of the Union address.
The following is a statement from 2024 NAR President Kevin Sears:
“The lack of affordable housing supply is hurting the middle class and depriving first-generation and first-time homebuyers of the financial security that homeownership and the American Dream provide.
NAR first sounded the alarm on this issue with original research showing a nationwide shortage of 5.5 million affordable housing units. We commend President Biden’s commitment to an all-of-government approach to solve this problem. NAR has proposed and advocated for many of these proposals, which together would make serious headway toward fixing this crisis.
Tax incentives can help close the affordable housing gap, and we are especially grateful for the President’s willingness to explore new tax measures. NAR also supports an all-of-the-above approach to this crisis--from tax incentives to zoning reforms to expanded financing.
NAR shares concerns of other housing industry groups that other Administration measures, especially in the area of rental housing, run the risk of reducing the supply of affordable rental housing if onerous regulations drive small property owners from the market and discourage future investment. The Administration’s increasing focus on housing production, however, signals a positive turn, as the housing shortage is the root of our affordability crisis.
NAR http://www.flyin.realtor/">compiled and endorsed a suite of policy and legislative proposals to help increase housing supply, including support for the More Homes on the Market Act and the Neighborhood Homes Investment Act, among others.
Our 1.5 million members stand ready to assist the President and Congress in any way possible to bring this relief to the American people.”
Read NAR’s full policy proposals to address housing supply at FlyIn.Realtor.
When you talk options, be sure your clients know the true cost of their choices. I have had a number of conversations recently where my clients have won deals because they put the client in a position to succeed by sharing the true cost of their choices. We spoke a few months ago as we approached the end of the year and I suggested you drive the conversation around getting into a home prior to the beginning of the year, and the increase in demand that often creates. Some shared, others didn’t. Those that did are seeing their clients in homes that they secured at prices that are significantly lower than they would be right now, as well as the cost of that home a few more months from now. It’s simple, supply/demand is in favor of the seller. When sellers are in control, the cost to buy is higher and the competition is greater. As we approach the spring market, the demand will only grow higher, and so will prices. If we just use 5% appreciation rates, a $300K home costs $1,250 more in a month from now. A $400K house costs almost $1,700 more each month. How much has waiting cost someone that chose to wait from November until now? $5,000? $10,000? More?
The same case can be made for looking at the choices people have made when it comes to their outstanding debts. The largest overlook people make is the cost of that car they just had to buy! Maybe it’s the cost of two cars? But does the client realize the true cost of that choice? Do they know that at a 7% interest rate that every $100 in car payment reduces the amount of mortgage you can qualify for by more than $15,000? So, when we look at $500, $600, $700 a month or more in car payments, is that choice worth $75,000, $90,000, or over $100,000 in mortgage value? The same holds true for boats, RV’s, campers, credit cards, and other installment debt. Knowing the true cost can be life changing. Providing that information allows your client to understand their choices and how one choice can impact another. It also shows that as a true professional, you are sharing information that allows your client to make informed choices.
While people might not always make the best choices, they tend to make better choices when they are aware of all their options and how those choices impact other opportunities! As always, if you have questions or comments, it’sThis email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.88 percent.
“Evidence that purchase demand remains sensitive to interest rate changes was on display this week, as applications rose for the first time in six weeks in response to lower rates,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Mortgage rates continue to be one of the biggest hurdles for potential homebuyers looking to enter the market. It’s important to remember that rates can vary widely between mortgage lenders so shopping around is essential.”
News Facts
- The 30-year FRM averaged 6.88 percent as of March 7, 2024, down from last week when it averaged 6.94 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.73 percent.
- The 15-year FRM averaged 6.22 percent, down from last week when it averaged 6.26 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.95 percent.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit. For more information, view our Frequently Asked Questions.
Freddie Mac’s mission is to make home possible for families across the nation. We promote liquidity, stability, affordability and equity in the housing market throughout all economic cycles. Since 1970, we have helped tens of millions of families buy, rent or keep their home. Learn More: Website
![54% of Mortgage Offers Went to Millennial Homebuyers in 2023 [New LendingTree Report]](/media/k2/items/cache/18af2cf0b3ad0526d3a94c161a7568f6_XS.jpg)
Though it may sometimes seem as if millennials are destined to rent or live in their parents’ basements forever, members of the generation are among the most influential in the housing market.
To highlight where millennials are looking to buy, LendingTree analyzed mortgage offers given to users of our online shopping platform across the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas in 2023. We found that millennials received at least 50% of mortgage offers made in most of the country’s largest metros. Here's what else we found.
- Across the nation’s 50 largest metros, 53.85% of mortgage offers in 2023 went to millennials. Millennials received more than 50% of all offered mortgages in 35 of the nation’s 50 largest metros.
- Millennials made up the largest share of potential homebuyers in San Jose, Calif., San Francisco and Boston. In San Jose, 64.75% of mortgages in 2023 were offered to millennials.
- Millennials in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa, Fla., made up the smallest share of potential buyers — though still substantial. In Las Vegas, 40.76% of mortgage offers in 2023 went to millennials.
- Offered loan amounts were largest in San Jose, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Loan amounts in these three metros in 2023 were $785,391, $731,062 and $627,322, respectively. Conversely, at $242,220, $268,484 and $268,900, average loan amounts offered in Buffalo, N.Y., Cleveland and Louisville, Ky., were the smallest.
-
You can check out our full report here: https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/most-popular-cities-millennial-homebuyers/
LendingTree's Senior Economist and report author, Jacob Channel, had this to say:
"Even though they typically aren’t as financially well off as members of older generations are, this doesn’t mean that most millennials are destitute. On the contrary, despite the very real economic challenges that many members of the generation have to face, millennials are still making significant financial headway in various arenas, including homeownership."
Cyber attacks have been an ongoing challenge for individuals and businesses over the years. Previously, they manifested through emails, Trojan horses, and various forms of malware that, upon infiltrating your computer via the internet, replicated themselves and replaced code within functional programs. Today, this threat continues to persist, posing a constant danger to both individuals and businesses.
But as digital technology has evolved at unprecedented rates, so too have cyber attacks and their complexities. Recently, I discussed how Ransomware has impacted many industries — most recently, the manufacturing industry. Ransomware attacks are a Hard Trend that is not slowing down anytime soon, as cyber criminals infiltrate organizational software and lock away vital information the company requires to operate.
Frankly, it is unfortunate that when these cyber criminals demand compensation, or ransom, to return the information, including sensitive customer and client information as well as valuable data, many organizations simply buckle and pay without ever fixing the problem.
And as a result, yet another attack is sure to follow. Soon, the organization is a crisis manager that never actually manages the crisis!
Ransomware attacks cost organizations millions of dollars, but worse, they reduce client trust in the organization — valuable equity in the longevity of an organization that far outmatches simple cash-in and cash-out. Suddenly, future profits are at risk as much as current profits!
I want those future gains to be bountiful for you, your team, and your organization as a whole. And without question, I know that the best defense in cybersecurity and Ransomware is an effective offense, all of which stems from proactivity and a well-developed sense of anticipation that complements an Anticipatory mindset!
Persistent Cybersecurity Threats to Stay Vigilant Against Today
Now, you may be thinking, “A cyberattack could never happen to my business. We are too small of a business to be of interest to cyber criminals.” Or perhaps you are comfortable with the status quo, thinking, “Our current IT system has protected us for years and will continue to do so.”
That way of thinking will quickly cause a downfall in this digitally transformative world! Focusing on what has happened previously instead of looking to the future on where Ransomware is headed is dangerous.
This would be like a sports team believing that their strategy from years ago could still win a championship against a team that has a strategy for today’s game. We all know what the result of this would be.
Cyber threats intrude on every industry and have been increasing at unprecedented rates since 2020, when Ransomware started making headlines. Now that there is less of a focus on Ransomware, many are tabling the threat and moving on.
Let me present you with a few current statistics according to a 2023 study completed by cyber insurance company Corvus Insurance:
• Ransomware attacks are up 95% since 2022
• Attacks on law practices are up 70%
• Threats to government agencies increased by 95% through 2023
• There is a 60% uptick in Ransomware attacks against the manufacturing industry
• Ransomware attacks are up 142% in the oil and gas industries
• 50% of transportation and logistics companies reported attacks
If these trends continue, and trust me when I say that you can count on this as a Hard Trend, there will likely be an attack every two seconds by the year 2031!
The focus may be on lost monetary funds; however, these threats are far more debilitating. In March of 2023, the Minneapolis Public School District was hit by the hacker group Medusa, who leaked over 300,000 confidential files of employees and students. Additionally, Lehigh Valley Health Network was hacked and is facing multiple lawsuits due to the loss of sensitive patient data that violated HIPAA laws.
In those cases, trust was breached and negatively impacted the future progress of these organizations.
Cyber criminals utilizing the advancement of technology to their advantage is just as much of a Hard Trend as those leveraging it for the good of their organization and industry. However, allowing these cyber criminals to do this is a Soft Trend. We can change the course of this!
Exponential Thinking Can Improve Cybersecurity
Because no industry is safe, it is no longer acceptable to sit back and let our IT departments operate as they always have. To keep employees, clients, and valuable data safe, it is paramount that we look to the future to anticipate the disruption that cyber crime and various Ransomware attacks will become and plan ahead before it ever has the opportunity to disrupt and destroy your future gains!
There may be no way to foresee exactly when a cyber attack will threaten your organization, but with my Anticipatory Leader System, the goal is to pre-solve any problems that may lead to a Ransomware attack or other cyber threat! We want to be prepared for when it inevitably happens so we are not trying to implement agility in the wake of an attack after the fact.
Because I encourage exponential thinking with regard to disruptive digital technology, I want you to use this same level of cognition regarding Ransomware and cyber threats.
For example, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been around for years but came to the mainstream with the introduction of ChatGPT in late 2022. Now, there are countless other AI applications out there, and cyber criminals are already using this technology to write virus-ridden code and streamline cyber attacks on various industries.
You cannot stop these individuals from utilizing AI for bad, but likewise, they cannot stop you from utilizing it to do good! Ask yourself:
• How can you also use AI to improve your cybersecurity?
• Can you leverage it to find holes in your system and create a better defense net?
• Can you implement AI or hire an organization to implement it as a way to outsmart any tech trying to breach a firewall?
Of course you can! It is just about finding the right application and the right team, and beginning with an Anticipatory mindset.
More sellers are listing their homes, but 7% mortgage rates and still-high home prices are pushing down sales
New listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 13% year over year during the four weeks ending February 25, the biggest increase in nearly three years, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Total inventory is also improving: Active listings are flat from a year ago, marking the first time in nine months the total number of homes for sale hasn’t declined.
That’s welcome news for homebuyers, who have been battling the dual challenges of low inventory and high mortgage rates for over a year. But while today’s buyers have a few more homes to choose from, they’re still facing historically high housing costs. The typical homebuyer’s mortgage payment is $2,671, just $47 shy of last October’s record high.
High costs pushed pending sales down 8%, the biggest decline in five months, and mortgage-purchase applications declined for the fourth straight week. But more house hunters are searching as more homes hit the market. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of requests for tours and other services from Redfin agents–is up 10% from a month ago to its highest level since last September. Pending sales could improve in the next few months if rates don’t increase further and new listings continue to rise.
“House hunters are out there, and competition picks up every time mortgage rates decline a bit,” said Brynn Rea, a Redfin Premier agent in Spokane, WA. “I’m telling buyers who can afford it to look now while they have more breathing room and less competition. They have a good chance of negotiating the price down or getting some concessions from the seller, which could make up for getting a 7% mortgage rate instead of 6%.”
Leading indicators
|
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity |
||||
|
Value (if applicable) |
Recent change |
Year-over-year change |
Source |
|
|
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
7.15% (Feb. 28) |
Up from 6.92% a month earlier |
Up from 6.78% |
Mortgage News Daily |
|
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate |
6.9% (week ending Feb. 22) |
Up from 6.77% a week earlier |
Up from 6.5% |
Freddie Mac |
|
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) |
Down 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending Feb. 23) |
Down 12% |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
|
|
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) |
Up 8% from a week earlier; up 10% from a month earlier (as of week ending Feb. 25) |
Down 9% |
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents |
|
|
Google searches for “home for sale” |
Up 7% from a month earlier (as of Feb. 24) |
Down 8% |
Google Trends |
|
|
Touring activity |
Up 12% from the start of the year (as of Feb. 25) |
At this time last year, it was up 14% from the start of 2023 |
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company |
|
Key housing-market data
|
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending February 25, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. |
|||
|
Four weeks ending February 25, 2024 |
Year-over-year change |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
$365,888 |
5.4% |
Biggest increase since Oct. 2022 (with the exception of the 4 weeks ending Feb. 11, when there was a 5.5% increase) |
|
Median asking price |
$396,975 |
5.5% |
|
|
Median monthly mortgage payment |
$2,671 at a 6.9% mortgage rate |
7.7% |
Down less than $50 from all-time high set in October 2023 |
|
Pending sales |
75,947 |
-7.7% |
Biggest decline since Oct. 2022 |
|
New listings |
79,354 |
12.9% |
Biggest increase since June 2021 |
|
Active listings |
763,254 |
Unchanged |
First time active listings haven’t posted a YoY decline since June 2023 |
|
Months of supply |
3.9 months |
+0.2 pts. |
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions |
|
Share of homes off market in two weeks |
37.9% |
Up from 36% |
|
|
Median days on market |
48 |
-3 days |
|
|
Share of homes sold above list price |
23.6% |
Up from 22% |
|
|
Share of homes with a price drop |
5.8% |
+1.6 pts. |
|
|
Average sale-to-list price ratio |
98.4% |
+0.4 pts. |
|
|
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending February 25, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
|||
|
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases |
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases |
Notes |
|
|
Median sale price |
Newark, NJ (15.5%) San Diego, CA (15.3%) Montgomery County, PA (14.5%) Pittsburgh (13.9%) Anaheim, CA (13.5%) |
San Antonio, TX (-5%) Detroit (-0.4%) |
Declined in 2 metros |
|
Pending sales |
Austin, TX (5.7%) Milwaukee (3.7%) Minneapolis (2.6%) Cleveland (1.2%) Pittsburgh (0.6%) Cincinnati (0.6%) |
San Antonio, TX (-29.8%) New Brunswick, NJ (-19.4%) Warren, MI (-18.3%) Atlanta (-16%) Houston (-15.6%) |
Increased in 6 metros |
|
New listings |
Dallas (35.5%) Jacksonville, FL (34.3%) Austin, TX (31.6%) Fort Worth, TX (29.8%) Miami (25.7%) |
Atlanta (-5.8%) Newark, NJ (-5.4%) Milwaukee (-4.6%) Providence, RI (-4.3%) Chicago (-1.5%) Warren, MI (-0.9%) |
Declined in 6 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-increase-pending-sales-decline/
Agent Resource
From buying and selling advice for consumers to money-making tips for Agents, our content, updated daily, has made Realty Times® a must-read, and see, for anyone involved in Real Estate.