Jobs, Housing Reports Subject To Interpretation

Written by Posted On Sunday, 11 March 2007 17:00

It was the same jobs report from the Labor Department, released Friday, but the media's response to it was a little on the pessimistic side, to say the least.

  • U.S. employers added 97,000 jobs in February - Associated Press

  • Job growth slows to 97,000 in February - Marketwatch

  • Job growth weakest in 2 years - CNNMoney.com

While 97,000 jobs was the smallest one-month gain since January 2005, that stand-alone fact isn't as ominous as it sounds, unless you are using a one-month change to signify a trend. After all, if it bleeds, it leads, as it's said in the news world, but the overall report by the Labor Department was slightly more optimistic, unless you're one of those who lost jobs.

The Labor Department announced that while the housing sector (construction jobs fell by 62,000) and factory sectors (payrolls fell by 14,000) of the economy shed jobs, the service sector added 168,000 jobs for a net total of 97,000.

Some say that job growth is slowing because February clocked the slowest rate in two years, but others note that the month suffered some particularly nasty weather with record snows and freezing temperatures across much of the Northeast. For those who want to wait for more definitive signs of job recession, the spotlight passes to more compelling news -- that the national unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped back down to 4.5 percent.

Payroll growth for the previous two months was revised upward to 146,000 jobs created from 111,000 jobs reported.

The average hourly wage also went up six cents (who says pennies don't count anymore?) in February, putting wages up 4.1 percent, well ahead of the inflation rate of 2.1 percent as calculated by the Consumer Price Index.

If this makes you feel good about the economy, enjoy the feeling while it lasts because the press says there's still reason to worry. The Associated Press reported that strong wage growth ... could raise fears about inflation, which would eventually hurt workers' wallets.

And then there's the issue of housing.

The Census Bureau reported that unsold new homes reached a record high in January of 175,000, up nearly 50 percent from the previous year, a glut that hurt builders from production schedules all the way to stock prices. Empty homes also reached a record high in the fourth quarter of 2006 -- 2.1 million, says the Census, opening the curtain on the desperation of speculators trying to dump properties they never intended to occupy, and sellers who have already moved, leaving their homes vacant.

Overbuilding, speculation, and easy high-risk money to borrowers are among the reasons to blame the glut of homes for sale, but the building industry and existing homes industry are working to alleviate inventories. Both sectors reported lower inventories on hand for December 2006.

But a tsunami in the subprime market may knock a huge portion of borrowers already challenged by high housing price -- those that can only get into a home with a high-risk interest-only or option loan. Those with the poorest credit will find it harder to qualify thanks to major subprime lenders such as New Century facing possible bankruptcy or exiting from the subprime category such as Fremont. Even so, only six percent of homeowners are nonprime borrowers with adjustable rate loans, says the Mortgage Bankers Association, and many of those will be rolled into new lower fixed rate loans, as loan rates have dropped to attractive near-30-year-low levels.

So the takeaway is that no matter what the news is, there's sure to be more than one interpretation of the facts.

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