Realogy And Wall Street Struggle With Negative Real Estate Spin

Written by Posted On Wednesday, 04 October 2006 17:00

Like builder stocks, REITs, and other housing-related stocks, Realogy (H) is taking more of a harsh pounding from the financial press than it may deserve. Since July, when Realogy was spun off from Cendant, shares are down about 10 percent, blared The New York Times, but are on their way back up due in part "to a tender offer by the company for its shares and a recovery in housing-related stocks."

But that's not the whole story. Although Wall Streeters keep trying to push the square peg into the round holes made familiar by other firms, there's really no comparable public company to Realogy.

According to a Realogy spokesperson, the value proposition shouldn't be hard to understand, but it apparently is for some of the financial press. He says that comparing Realogy to other real estate companies is hardly apples to apples. Realogy is first and foremost a franchisor of the Century 21, Coldwell Banker, ERA and Sotheby brands. It's relocation subsidiary Cartus provides sure-thing leads to its broker network, and it's in-house brokerage NRT brings value to the franchise brands through the purchase of companies such as The Corcoran Group.

In a recent New York Times article, writer Vikas Bajaj says the "most urgent issue facing Realogy is the softening housing market" and "convincing investors that it will better withstand the downdraft than, say, homebuilders, whose stocks have fallen 26 percent so far this year."

A softer market means fewer real estate agents bringing in franchise fees, but while some have cried that the sky's falling, others are noting that mortgage applications and refinancings are up due to falling interest rates.

And that's the root of Realogy's frustration with Wall Street. The company's not comparable to homebuilders, or other real estate companies, it maintains. And for those who understand the business, the company's set up to attract franchisees when sales are good, and to buy brokerage bargains for NRT when business isn't so good.

What has the public market worried is Realogy's downward estimate guidance coupled with its repurchase of up to 48 million shares, touching off the rumor that the company might be gearing up for a buyer.

"The purpose of any company is to provide value to shareholders," says the Realogy spokesperson. "Our business is transparent, the market will look at the timing, but that's not under our control. What is under our control is management strategy and direction."

A Lehman Brothers equity research note may sum it up best: "The public market's time focus is not always in sync with the long term requirements of certain types of public companies. Residential real estate, which not only involves the economy, but day-to-day transactions that involve personal pocketbooks, may be one of these industries. The public market's handwringing over the macro's in the downturn of the real estate industry, we believe obscures the long-term values inherent in Realogy's shares."

"Each day your company is for sale," says the spokesperson, "to your shareholders."

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