Mixed Jobs Data Muddle Real Estate Outlook

Written by Posted On Tuesday, 06 December 2005 16:00

Just in time for the holidays, there are more jobs and less unemployment. That's something to celebrate, but does that mean the housing boom will continue?

Employers added 215,000 jobs in November, up from 44,000 in October. That keeps the unemployment rate at five percent. The November gains match average job growth during the first part of the year before it was blown off course by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Out of 278 industries, over 62 percent reported gains, the most positive record since May 2004.

What has economists cheering is that the job gains were broad-based. Construction added 37,000 jobs, professional services 29,000 and manufacturing added 11,000. Retail added a holiday season adjusted 9,000 jobs.

With average hourly earnings at $16.32, wages are also up over three percent for the year, but that wasn't enough to cover the 4.3 percent gain in prices ending in October, according to the Labor Department.

That means that inflation is gaining on America's checkbook, and that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to raise short-term interest rates for a 13th consecutive meeting on Dec. 13.

Some economists wonder that higher interest rates might cause some of those jobs in construction to go away if the housing market softens next year, but record housing sales in October indicate that isn't the case. New home sales rose 13 percent over last year, according to the Commerce Department, so those homes will be completed anywhere from four months to a year from now.

The government recommends that it takes six months to establish a trend, and that one month's statistics, up or down, is not cause for concern.

Realty Times believes that there's a good reason why home sales are seasonally adjusted, because, every month, there is new data that impacts market conditions.

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