If you are a home buyer who is dependent on a good interest rate to qualify for a home, or you're a homeowner considering refinancing to lower your interest rate, or you're a Realtor working with buyers, you might consider locking in your mortgage interest rate while they're still below or at 6.00 percent for a 30-year fixed rate.
The reason is inflation is about to get out of control. The cost of goods is going to skyrocket, and they'll take mortgage interest rates up with them.
It defies reason that oil can go up 30 percent in a year and not impact prices more than it has. Not counting the majority of goods that arrive by boat, seventy percent of our merchandise is trucked across the U.S.A. in diesel vehicles that cost over $1,300 to fill up.
The airlines are feeling the bite. To pay for jet fuel, American Airlines has just announced a $15 charge for the first checked bag.
And anyone with a growling stomach knows food is more expensive, especially milk and grains.
Using the methodology from a Wall Street Journal article of Labor Bureau consumer prices in 2006 compared to 2007-2008, Jennifer Openshaw took the conclusions one step further to create tables of estimated inflation rates.
The results are terrifying - everything is up except clothing. Gas prices - 36 percent. Utilities - 16.6 percent. Food - 10 percent. Healthcare - 8.6 percent. Housing - 6.5 percent.
Housing - up 6.5 percent?????
Wait a minute. Didn't the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight just say that home prices fell 1.7 percent for the first quarter? The largest price decline on record?
What's going to drive housing up? Rents. If you're not buying, you gotta live somewhere.
All that money you're saving by not buying is going to be chewed up by higher rents.
Several issues are driving rents up:
- Fewer new homes are being built - tapering off to half as many as 2006.
- Mortgage lenders are tightening standards and giving even A-paper loans cavity scrutiny that would make a San Quentin jailer blush.
- Home sales are slowing.
- We've lost over a quarter million jobs Q1. People are scared.
What's happening is volatile, exactly the conditions mortgagors don't like. Expect interest rates to rise, perhaps explosively.
Published: May 23, 2008
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Blanche Evans is the award-winning senior editor of Realty Times, the Internet's leading independent real estate news service. She is featured daily on the Realty Times Video Network in the "Realty Viewpoint" segment.
Blanche has been named one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate" by REALTOR Magazine, and has been twice recognized as a "notable." In 2005, she was named "Top Reporter Covering the NAR" by Delahaye-Bacon's.
Blanche is a renowned author of five real estate books. Her newest, Bubbles, Booms and Busts: Make Money In Any Real Estate Market, McGraw-Hill, was rave-reviewed by The New York Times. She was also selected from hundreds of real estate experts to contribute to Donald Trump's book, Trump: The Best Real Estate Advice I Ever Received: 100 Top Experts Share Their Strategies, Rutledge Hill Press, and is featured on page 68.
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In 2006, Blanche was selected among scores of candidates to author two consumer real estate guidebooks for the National Association of Realtors: The NAR Guide to Home Buying, and The NAR Guide to Home Selling, Wiley & Sons. She is currently planning two new books for the NAR and its members.
Known for her keen insight into real estate industry issues and for her ability to make complex subjects easy to understand, Blanche is a sought-after keynote and continuing education speaker. Real estate organizations from MLSs, to brokerages, to franchisors, to associations hire her to provide up-to-the-minute analysis of real estate industry news and advice on how to improve revenues. Her passionate delivery, peppered with stinging wit, is a huge hit with audiences and fans.
 Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors, Blanche Evans, Richard Courtney, president 2007, GRAR
"The GNAR membership meeting last week featured Blanche Evans as the keynote speaker. Her comments and insights resonated extremely well with those in attendance and we have had many requests for copies of her PowerPoint Presentation. She was a terrific part of the membership meeting and convention program!" - Don Klein, CEO Greater Nashville Association of Realtors
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